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Another Kent clipper

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    Holiday advice

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I read from some pdf about European lightning distribution that the Mediterranean in general is the place for autumn storms

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/815/2014/nhess-14-815-2014.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwicrfL125HjAhVai1wKHcOMBYMQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2wiTUidh_24oGzP18yM2e7

    3.2.9 September


    September sees a dramatic switch in the distribution of Eu-
    ropean lightning, as can be seen in Fig. 13. Northern Europe
    sees a sharp drop in observed lightning, whereas the western
    Mediterranean sees a sharp increase, particularly along coast-
    lines. Cooler air moving over the now warm waters of the
    Mediterranean leads to the generation of storms. Lightning
    densities in the eastern Mediterranean remain relatively low,
    however. Lightning densities are still higher over the Alps,
    Pyrenees and Atlas Mountains than the surrounding regions.
    Tracks of individual storms are noticeable across Germany,
    Poland and the Czech Republic, predominantly from storms
    in 2011.

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Another Kent clipper

    Well, tomorrow could be another June 28th. But for Ireland only.  First time I've seen a "severe" on convective weather in a long time.

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 20:19 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridge persists across western Europe, although as it slowly pivots slightly to the east, it allows the EML (elevated mixed layer) that has lingered over the Celtic Sea south of Ireland for the past few days to eventually lift northwards through Friday. A corridor of strong instability (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg elevated CAPE) will ultimately move across S / SW Ireland on Friday morning, which may phase favourably with a ribbon of shear vorticity, and shortwave impulse embedded within the strong southeasterly flow on the forward side of the approaching Atlantic upper vortex.

    Forecast profiles are fairly saturated between 800-900mb, suggesting that low cloud may be rather extensive, with drizzle in places. An EML will be located above this layer, from which air parcels may be able to rise and lead to deep elevated convection - assuming some moistening of the profile occurs. Most model guidance is reluctant to develop much in the way of convection, and hence confidence is rather low for this scenario. However, the ECMWF and AROME have consistently, run-on-run, signalled the development for elevated thunderstorms over SW Ireland on Friday morning before moving offshore to the NW.

    Given the magnitude of CAPE available, and the strongly-sheared environment, any storms that do manage to develop could become severe - with the main threat being large hail 2-3cm in diameter, and localised surface water flooding. As such, we have issued a conditional SVR area.

    There could also be a few elevated showers drifting across NW Ireland towards W Scotland on Friday night, as the EML plume continues to shift gradually northwards and eastwards with time. Subtle forcing and rather dry profiles results in low confidence over how much, if any, lightning activity may occur.

    A stronger signal exists late in the night, towards Saturday morning, for a new round of elevated thunderstorms to develop as the upper trough axis sharpens and approaches from the south. Primary interest would be over the Celtic Sea and eventually spreading northwards towards eastern Ireland. Confidence is not particularly high at present, so have refrained from including a SLGT here for now.

    IMG_20190628_000140.png

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    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

    I have a feeling that i'll be suffering from a severe lack of sleep next week, no time off work and likely pulling all-nighters on Sunday and Monday 

    Plume rules.  At work: "why are you so tired"... "Erm I was checking the radar.  At 12, 2, 4, and 6am.  Contemplated going out for a look when I was within 100 miles of sferics but then I fell asleep"

    • Like 12

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Another Kent clipper

    25 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    I’ve asked for Tue, Weds and Thurs off - just waiting for confirmation

    So tricky when no information is present about which days will offer the best potential

    My four days off have fallen on yesterday, today, tomorrow, and Sunday!  

    ... however, having just checked the GFS, tue-wed-thu are already scaled down for Cape from what they were. Can't speak for other charts

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