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Posts posted by Another Kent clipper
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Retreat into your basements, are you ready for this?...
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 May 2019
ISSUED 07:28 UTC Wed 22 May 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
One or two isolated lightning strikes may occur over eastern Scotland on Wednesday afternoon as areas of showery rain move offshore in an environment of a few hundred J/kg CAPE and reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 20 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 21 May 2019
ISSUED 20:57 UTC Sun 19 May 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Similar to the past few days, broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Monday, with a slack surface pressure pattern. Diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass will yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers likely to develop forced by low-level convergence and orographic forcing. Weak steering flow will lead to slow movement of showers, bringing the risk of some local surface water flooding.
Forecast profiles are slightly cooler aloft compared with the weekend (when a warm nose at 600-700mb limited convective depth) and so convection may be somewhat deeper on Monday, and hence capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes - this perhaps more likely over southern England and / or the East Midlands. However, confidence of lightning activity is not particularly high given weak shear and skinny CAPE, and so refraining from introducing a SLGT at this stage. A couple of funnel clouds will be possible given low cloud bases and areas of low-level convergence.
Elevated instability will also exist over the North Sea, though this activity will likely weaken before approaching the Northern Isles on Monday evening. It could also get close to the coast of East Anglia for a time late morning / early afternoon Monday.
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-20
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1 hour ago, Biggin said:
Some potential this coming week perhaps ?
Friday looks pretty heroic on the Cape front. Tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday don't look too shabby either. But I'm only looking at Cape, I understand you also need shear, convergence, lift, cinnamon, nutmeg, and some wet bulbs to make a storm.
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1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:
Nice catch there Zak
.cracker @Another Kent clipper.....i fold
It should be me folding, your cell is darker!
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I hope the sun's shining hard in Newcastle cos they look to be in the five o'clock firing line
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Time of bust: 1737. More slight than might
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Let the forecast battle commence...
Personally I'm feeling if anything happens in will be well west. I've nothing technical to base it on other than that the sky in London right now looks stable enough to transport 1000 eggs
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I think pink lighting is my favourite. Not particularly because it's pink but because gives me the impression that the air is dirty, dusty, and ripe for a good storm
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21.7 in Chelmsford
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A flash and a rumble in southeast London. Followed by some rain
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7 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:
Proper storm with Thunder and lightning in London.
It's January....
Make the most of it... I'm moving to the big smoke next month, along with my big storm shield
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It might be easier to upload it YouTube then link even though they compress it a bit
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Would it be true to say that july 27th was the most active day ever known for the uk? Hopefully not, because I would like repeat of it in 2019, and hopefully be underneath some of it...
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Blimey, this is better than summer! For those near the coast at least
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Lightning on the south west coast right now !
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Oscar jr?
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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Nope. Because it landed on the clever answer