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Posts posted by AnvilCrawlers
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2 minutes ago, Spikey M said:
The sun is out in South East Essex. We'll keep producing for the rest of you.
I be happy just to have one storm come overhead,had nothing here,just keep skirting by as if I got some sort of barrier round me lol.
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2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:
Even this far inland the sun just can't burn this rubbish off.
Its trying here but seems to be struggling at mo
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Ooh got rain but will we get a storm instead of skirting by
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5 minutes ago, smistry said:
Lightning towards Southam way
Still not here,I got nothing
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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:
I’m going to be well stroppy here - I hope it does! I hope it leaves a great big cloud shield over central England. I’m not going to put up with warm rain only for the same areas further north to get battered for a fourth day in succession in some places....
No point putting a shield here as I already got one,endless heat and humidity this week and no storm
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2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
Slightly frustrating seeing all these storms skirt west of here. That's pretty much been the story over the past few days.
Yup same here,get so close then watch it skirt pass
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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Possibly too far East
I'm guessing same as here as seem to be just a tad too far east
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Got rain finally nothing thundery though
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This temp was not forecast,just hit 33.9 with dp at 17
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Yeah, Sat24 shows the cumulus field developing/moving west each update so I think we should be good!
Noooo,I hope not as keep missing everything.still waiting first storm
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2 minutes ago, Hammer said:
Storm growing just south of me in Harlow. In past 15 minutes. Love how quickly they can go up.
Was just looking at lightning map and seen that area,kind of gives me hope where I am.
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Looking west and looks like some explosive developments
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8 minutes ago, davehsug said:
Clear blue sky in Stoke. Nice to see you Southerners doing your jobs and brewing up for us in the Midlands / North West. It's much appreciated
You should say what area of the midlands as not the whole midlands are getting storms
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- Popular Post
14:00 Discussion Update
Latest Surface observations have shown temperatures have reached the low 30s across parts of SE England and Southern England have reached 28-31C. The 11Z Herstmonceux Ascent has a surface parcel lifted given the surface and DP's and over 2,500 j/Kg of CAPE. There is little environmental forcing or ascent however to trigger any convection. The Ascent is a little dry, but not overly so. This implies that the atmosphere over England & Wales is storing
large amounts of CAPE.
The Herstmonceux ascent indicates that T-Storms when they do develop have the potential to become intense, with tops to over 40,000 ft or to around -60C or 180mbs or slightly above.
In order to release this we will need some low level local ascent or convergence or we will need some larger scale atmospheric lift or ascent.
The local ascent may occur over parts of Southern and Central England later this afternoon. Mesoscale models suggest some low level confluence will extend to around 925mbs and come together over parts of the Thames Valley, West and NW of London during the late afternoon and evening as the current ESE flow backs more NE over the Midlands, and veers South to SE over parts of Southern England. This suggests that focused ascent will occur and large intense thunderstorms can develop and move slowly WNW in the flow at 850mbs. 850mb Theta-W is also 20-22C across Southern England, much of Wales and into the Midlands too. These storms will be intense but quite scattered.
To the South - Airmass imagery indicates more substantial synoptic scale ascent and vorticity is moving north assoc with a well marked shortwave trough moving north. T-Storms have died back this morning during the Diurnal minima over France, but this area is likely to see further intense storms develop through the afternoon and evening and as the trough moves north it will further augment the ascent over Southern England and further intense T-Storms will likely develop at times through the evening and night over Southern PArts.
Models are all over the place with regards to where storms break out and individual detail should not be taken too literally. The models are really struggling to resolve the complex thermodynamic structure given their vertical resolution and the rather constant changes and ongoing modification which T-Storms themselves develop.
The steering flow is rather poor from the South , so imports from France seem rather unlikely - however as the upper trough moves north it will overrun the theta-W plume and provide some larger scale ascent and spin. Again further intense storms are likely to develop and break out over Southern England during the night, either routed to the surface or from the 850mb level . Many places will miss the storms but where they occur they are likely to release very large amounts of CAPE, Dangerous C/G Lightning, Hail, Torrential rain which may easily give 50-100mm of rain in a very short period of time.
Whilst this outlook expires at 06:00 further heavy and intense thunderstorms are likely to develop across Southern England during Thursday which may be more located in Southern Counties of England during the afternoon as a confluence/ convergence zone develops over Southern England.PJB UKWW
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PJB on ukww has new update
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Can see more of a cu field now,tower trying to form looking west,fear I gonna miss all the fun again unless I get a surprise pop up.
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Just now, TomW said:
Nothing yet this week here either! Apart from a distant show last night.
Been same here and the ground is so dry
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Finally 12pm weather station up date is up and it 30.9 now
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4 minutes ago, Gord said:
Sadly, there is another side to this weather. There's been a serious rail derailment near Stonehaven. Very likely weather related.
As a rail employee myself, my thoughts go to all involved.
Oh dear it a Hst set and one fatality I'm hearing, my heart goes out to those involved in this tragedy
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4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
We've hit 30c here in the death valley storm incubator. I'd head out to somewhere on the ridgeway later,I think. Panoramic views from there
Not far behind you here.it now 29.3 and dp 19
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Just now, T4Toby said:
exactly the same here too, I'm at 24 and the sea mist only cleared about 1 hour ago
Low of 19.6 and first day with now low cloud that I was aware of as was up at 8
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Blimey temps shooting up here quicker than yesterday just check 10am reading and it already at 27.1 and dp 18c
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5 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:
looks like your just on the edge as with all other forecasts today
Which I fear I will miss out as I think I be to far east and brum will bear the brunt,with them traveling nw again
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PJB on ukww has a nice in depth forecast for today and tonight
Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Looking at radar,think I will miss them again as they go west and go nw as they pass my area.