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StormLoser

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    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, John90 said:

    I do enjoy a bumpy flight. 

    Reminds me of leaving St Louis airport in 1995, straight into a squall line that was progressing up the runway very slowly. That was a roller-coaster of a climb out! Wings flexing, plane rolling, up, down with the passengers cheering every drop and bounce. It was the side-slides that were the most uncomfortable, where we were pushed against the cabin wall as the aircraft dropped sideways! Every so often a purple flash for lightning.  I never worried about bad weather and aircraft after that, having seen those wings warp around like they did.

    Yep - enjoy!

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I'm struggling with the difference in the Models. Estofex is my usual port of call and they've stuck with their model as of yesterday. But this morning's weather is pretty much as expected and the radar trend looks like the Met Office is right.

    I shall watch with interest. If only I could feel the more dramatic models for this evening are correct; but I've seen so many busts I tend to remain rather cynical. Like a few other folks on this forum, I have a weird storm-free zone around me.

    I consoled myself with Pecos Hank videos on YouTube last night...       Lucky man. Unlucky residents.

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by StormLoser

    55 minutes ago, Harry said:

    To be honest @John90 I’m struggling to find a model which suggests thundery activity and more extensive than estofex forecast. Granted there’s a few models (eg Euro4) keen to throw some heavy rain across C/S/SE England but I’m not seeing much more than meagre instability across Kent and surrounding areas on any model. 

    I just saw the Estofex forecast. They have the later shortwave trough going through northern France and Belgium rather than pushing into the UK. It's virtually the opposite of the Met Office.

    Past experience lends me to go with the Estofex forecast for now, though I'm happy to be proved wrong. 

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by StormLoser

    OK, I admit it. With an Amber Warning out I'll forget the BBQ and start taking some interest (sorry - after years of yellow weather warnings I am incredibly cynical about them).

    Looking at the warning zone I say the forming small low pressure (a low level core from the Netherlands area) off the east coast, drifts inland right through the warning area. 

    So I'd go for part home grown (weak local instability) and part imported - pulling a lot of moisture in from the north and east of the low (from the sea) as it develops.

    A bit of a crusty on-the-fly model for you...      (Apologies if I am wrong).

    PS sorry about the edits - I have arthritis and my keyboard rebels against me...

     

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by StormLoser

    Hah! Throwing forecast charts at me, eh? With my history of every storm in the UK detouring around me, I'm setting up the BBQ for the afternoon.   

    Estofex forecast shows the majority of the serious stuff off in Europe to the south and east of the UK across the Channel, with a little raised threat clipping East Anglia. I'll go with that (as I usually do). Meanwhile, sun's coming out here but not enough for much forcing.

    The models (like fujita5 says) showed focus for the central south of the UK. The next batch out of France is already trending that way. 

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I had a small party a couple of days ago. A buffet, really. I got the neighbours around and we all celebrated the very first rumble of thunder heard here in Reigate this June. After that we put away the party stuff for next year.

    Meanwhile, I see the Met Orofice is forecasting Biblical floods for SE and E England the next two or tree days. Just popping out to plant some cacti. Whilst the air is destabilising around us, I don't see the inundations they are promising. Rain, yes. Worth a yellow weather warning? Nope.

    • Like 1
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