John Cox
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Posts posted by John Cox
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14 minutes ago, Day_9 said:
Day 9.
it isn’t worth a sausage, let alone a boom. Let’s come back here on the 14th January and see, looking at individual runs and foaming at the mouth about them is the quickest route to madness
I think all are entitled to a sausage or a boom if they produce a chart to back it up.
Even though it's 14th January, it's a lovely chart and worth an individuals sausage or a boom. LOL
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44 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:I don't feel welcome in here anymore. Ciao.
Never Leave.
There is more than one opinion. Just accept that differences happen but people should never fall out, especially over weather
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3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
I would advise people to just concentrate on the 00z and 12z runs for the sake of one's sanity. Two runs per day from the different suites is more than ample to look for trends. Anything more is overload and just increases confusion.
Also for the sake of sanity and as a long time weather chart observer.
Try this:
Look at any previous run later than 120 hours (and I mean the current previous run at any given time).
What do you notice? Totally different.
It means, if the current post 120 hours looks crap, the next one will probably look great and visa versa.
If a few runs post 120 hours looks similar then maybe we are onto a trend.
And if you need a snow fix, my 2 favourite sites are:
https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/finland/lapland/santa-claus-village.html
https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/finland/lapland/levi-ski-resort.html
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35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
nice overall run- however everything that comes in the cold / 'snowy' GFS runs requires the key of high pressure remaining in situ over Greenland or a wedge over Iceland > even if like the 18z its a low amplitude GH it does the trick-
We are persistently seeing this modelled within the 192 > 240 outputs but once the resolution increases just like today we find energy spilling over the top keeping the high toppling.
It seems our best chance cold for a long while but its not quite falling into place just yet...
Hi Steve,
Long time no talk.
We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed.
One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.
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Just now, Cuban Zebra said:
I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell
One of these days it will materialise...... Hopefully.... I would love it...but unless it is is 48+ i will not be happy... A long terms watcher and scpetic of long range synoptics.... but is it not nicer to be watching such synoptics rather than raging westerlies.
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
I Alas, I think I hit caught up with the prospect of having some cold at all, and perhaps lost a bit of balance in my assessments. I hope I learn. Will I ever
Looking at GFS 276+ i suspect you + all of us never will.
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It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS.
Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December
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Just so that people don’t become too despondent with the recent ups and downs regarding cold coming and getting snow this winter, I think we just need to step back a little bit and look at the type of synoptics and related weather type we have had since the “beast from the East” arrived last late Feb/early March.
Our blisteringly hot summer was based on similar synoptics we are beginning to see now. Yes, we have had some blips with some Westerly incursions of cyclonic weather. Predominately though. we have been influenced by more Northerly/Easterly/Southerly weather synoptics since last March.
Where are our regular westerlies that we would normally been getting at this time of the year? Gone. Do they look like coming back in the near/Mid term? No.
Maybe i am being overly optimistic, but things to me look different this late autumn. It looks to me very like that the synoptics have a look of late 2010 written all over it.
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Steve, thanks for a great topic and detailed opening post.
I posted the following comment on an Irish Facebook forum in July.
"From what i can see, the same synoptics in general have prevailed since the historic snow storm back at the end of February. In winter this gives snow, in summer sunny and hot. I cannot remember any such prolonged synoptic similarities (easterlies) in all the 40 years i have been weather watching. Is this linked to the slowdown in the North Atlantic drift? This being caused by the speed up in the melting of the Artic ice and Greenland Ice? Could the NAD slowdown be speeding up? We know what this would eventually cause. Perhaps I am being over dramatic. We shall see."
I am not there most techical member here and I just have observed the weather for the last 50 years and studied the charts for as long.... and things, i believe, have changed big time since early in the year. I did predict to family members and friends after the Late February and 18th March cold spell that if the weather synoptics continued as they were at that time we would be in for a scorcher of a Summer. The synoptics generally stayed the same and lo and behold the hottest, sunniest and longest Summer came to Ireland this year.
Stephen, my technical reasons for the change above may be quite simplistic.
I think perhaps, what you have stated in detail may be actually what is taking place. This winter could be facinitating and indeed one to watch, based on your thoughts.
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
Hiya - thanks
We are in a pattern similar to 1976 Summer / 1995
1963 Winter -
A quasi-stationary block to the ENE as well as a nice strong azores high-
A shot at the UK temp record in the next 4 weeks - with a very outside chance of 40c.
Temp anomalies around +5-6c for thr CET at the mo & a high chance of our first 20c CET month...
Hi Steve,
I never post in Summer but the synoptics are so like Winter...
On an Irish Facebook weather channel i posted the following a few days ago:
"from what i can see, the same synoptics in general have prevailed since the historic snow storm back at the end of February. In winter this gives snow, in summer sunny and hot. I cannot remember any such prolonged synoptic similarities (easterlies) in all the 40 years i have been weather watching. Is this linked to the slowdown in the North Atlantic drift? This being caused by the speed up in the melting of the Artic ice and Greenland Ice? Could the NAD slowdown be speeding up? We know what this would eventually cause. Perhaps I am being over dramatic. We shall see."ManageI will probably get technically berated but this is my gut feeling. Duck
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16 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
John..
Thanks for the note.
I am afraid that I did not carry out examinations as to the reasons, I just noted the common occurrences as I was scanning through the historic re-analysis. If I had got side-tracked I would never have finished!
Typically, I examined up to 168 hours, after the initial date.
I did notice the straight Northerlies of the 19th Century, the fact that the Scandy high was south in the 1930's, and afterwards I realised how little cold we had in the earlier years for the period March onwards.
The interesting thing would have been if we had the data going back to the 17th and 18th Centuries.
Ah well..
Anyone fancy looking at the 'hot' outbreaks to see a similar pattern?
I get the impression they are not so numerous, but who knows...
MIA
I understand. Anyone of us could use your data and do some analysis and present. Thanks again.
It has been a memorable late winter and this is the time for post mortems
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Thank you so much for this report.
I note with pleasure 6th Jan 1982 (showing my age). It was my most memorable snow event.
You state"
A slight trend to more severe weather in 'late winter' is more obvious. The last 10 years now shows this trend extending into March"
Have you any information as to why we are generally now having the most cold periods in late winter/early spring?
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Here in the East of Ireland this is what our Met people have to say:
The snow that’s on its way could be “record breaking” according to RTÉ weather presenter Karina Buckley.
Speaking on Liveline in the past few minutes, she said that the previous record snowfall was 49cm in the 1960s.
It could reach 50cm tomorrow.
This evening they mentioned "copious amounts of snow". I have never heard the word "copious" mentioned with regards to snow here in Ireland.
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33 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Loving the good vibes here lads and ladies! Glad you’re all wishing me well with it!!! :-)
Best snow I’ve seen in over 25 years, better than 2010! Tomorrow is supposed to be on a par with 1982. I’ll be snowed in if that’s the case. I have to go to work at 9am on Friday morning, looks like I’ll have to walk to work as it will most likely be un-driveable! Great snowfall again this evening and the bits that melted are all frozen over as it’s currently -3.2.
Yes, it is great,
It just keeps snowing and snowing , nearly white out conditions. - 3.6c. -10c wind chill here
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We've had blizzard conditions here in Dublin for the last 30 minutes.
The wind has got so strong the snow is beginning to swirl and drift. Lovely jubly
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1 hour ago, radiohead said:
12Z HIRLAM. Almost 24 hours of continuous moderate or heavy snow shown here, some very heavy pulses, with strong winds. The model ends at 48 hours with snow still going. An historic snow episode for many places in the east and south, is looking very likely.
If this is anything like Jan 1982 the we are in for an unbelievable event. I still remember that snow so well here in Dublin. It was an epic event.
We had 18 inches of snow with 6 feet drifts
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Blizzard conditions here in Palmerstown at the moment.
Temp had dropped 1.2c in the last 10 minutes. Currently -2.1 c
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Continuous snow showers here with blizzard like conditions. I would say we have had about 10cm easily.
This is bliss
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The snow showers keep piling into Dublin. About 1cm at the moment.
We are so lucky. I have waited since the great snowfalls of Dec 2010.
The icing on the cake would be something similar to 8th Jan 1982. Unlikely i know. It snowed fro 36 hours non stop with 18 inches of snow with 6 feet snowdrifts . it was brilliant!!!
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23 minutes ago, John Cox said:
Lots of snow showers here now.
Really pleased. Its feels so cold out... 1.5c but with wind chill. bone chilling... great
Meant to say -1.5c
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Lots of snow showers here now.
Really pleased. Its feels so cold out... 1.5c but with wind chill. bone chilling... great
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Just had our 1st very light snow shower in Palmerstown of this upcoming event at 9:15am
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This is so exciting for all you in the East and South East and NE UK.
I live in Dublin and am waiting for the same in about 24 hours. Enjoy
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13 minutes ago, Dylan87 said:
Met Eireann still playing the wait and see closer to the time game.
Hi Dylan.
I think they are quite nailing their colours to the mast: I know it may be my interpretation but I am so excited
"Thursday: Bitterly cold on Thursday with scattered snow showers. Highest temperatures ranging from -1 to +2 degrees, in strong east to northeast winds. A more persistent spell of snow is expected to move up from the south during Thursday night, with significant accumulations in many areas. Fresh to strong easterly winds will lead to drifting in places.
Friday: Early indications are for further falls of snow for a time on Friday, but clearer conditions, with scattered snow showers, will extend gradually from the south. Temperatures not quite as low as on Wednesday and Thursday, but still very cold."-
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by John Cox
I too was surprised to see this narrative on their website today.
I have great respect for their accuracy but just wonder where they got this one today from:
"NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing."