[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

1 minute ago, Long haul to mild said:

From the current charts it looks like inland will do ok for snow but anything within about 10-15 miles of the coast will be sleet or rain. Could all change of course....

Thanks. Fingers crossed and hope for the best I guess

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

How do we think Suffolk will do tomorrow? Rain or snow?

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Snowing heavily here in Bury St Edmund's now. Grass, roof tops etc turning white.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Nothing was nailed on in the reliable time frames.Maybe if people stopped looking at fl charts thinking they will verify then their wouldn’t be so disappointed if it fails to materialise.

It's more the fact the ensembles etc continuously lead us up the garden path.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't give up coldies, this is a titanic battle!!

Cold always wins out in FI, but come +180 or so it's inevitable the mild will win. It's like a repeat record.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Well we do finally have a northerly incoming at 210, but at this rate of knots it'll make it just before the 00z's start rolling out.

  

Might make it by march if we're lucky at this rate ?

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Trying to get cold into our country the past few years is hopeless. This weeks so called "cold snap"  was also woeful unless you live up a hill somewhere. I don't know why we bother watching this model output sometimes, gfs, ecm all look nailed on for cold, ensembles looked promising etc. And just like that we're practically back into mild mush.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

Come on now, I know you're just commenting on one run, but for it to be 'all over' by the 28th that would require that every single detail, down to the most minute bit of data, is 100% correct. Huge areas of cold pooling sat beneath a large block are notoriously difficult to cast aside, so it's extremely likely that even if the 12hz is correct in its handling of the setting up of cold (and that's a massive if) then it's going to struggle with working out how and when a breakdown will come.

It can't be over before it's even begun! 

I'm not comparing this to 2010, but remember when the breakdown was supposedly coming but it just kept getting pushed back day upon day.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

So as we enter autumn we see the Azores high having the main say again. The mild/warmth of the of the next week just doesn't excite me in October. Can't we have a nice cell of high pressure sat over us in autumn nowadays without it bringing mild muck? Pleasant autumn days with cool crisp nights feel like something autumn never brings anymore. 

 

Here's hoping the next weeks pattern doesn't last too long. I know our weather is generally a south westerly pattern, but I'm sure everyone would just like to see some seasonal weather for a change. Whether that be summer, autumn winter or spring. The past few years I don't recall any season truly delivering what it should, I just hope this doesn't continue through this autumn and beyond.