[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Long range modelling has always seemingly had a good handle on default 'zonal patterns' so confidence in this outcome should be higher. They tend to struggle more picking out patterns against the normal climatological mean. 

In a broad sense, the CFS and GLOSEA have been rock solid behind a +NAO winter for months. I struggle to see what will alter to change their prognosis. 

Hi Crewe 

Them long range models are terrible . I know most winters are mild and wet but even if it is going to be a cold winter or cold winter month then long range models would never pick it up this far out . When was the last time a long range model picked out cold spell /cold month and got it right . I can't remember one . We struggle to predict the weather 7 days out let alone months in advance . So everyone chill it's only just November . Cold spells can just come out of nowhere and usually do . 

Cheers 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Has ECM gone down? I only have yesterday's 12z

It's because on this mornings run it shows -10 850s over the uk with major blizzards on days 6,7,8,9 and 10 . 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Evening All 

Its certainly looking very interesting as we head towards November . Probley the best it's looked for quite a few years . Not a bad Set of ens there , if it's cool / cold your looking for . 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

And now the ecm gives us Winds from the north . 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The GFS 06z is almost as warm as the 00Z. I wouldn't disregard it at all. The odds are certainly favouring warmth for late next week and into the weekend.

I wouldn't say the odds are favouring warmth next week . It's only been 2 GFS op runs . It will probley be completely different on the 12 z run . This is the GFS Lol 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The op right at top of the ensembles again . Just look at the spread . 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Evening All

Been following this thread since march 2013 , when be last had a proper cold spell . Since then we have not had any really notable cold and snowy spells . Let's hope this winter is a lot more winter like than the last few . Got to say I love Mr Murrs posts and can't wait for him to start posting ready for winter . In fact there is a lot of very informative members on here so keep it up . As booferking pointed out earlier the GFS ensembles keep showing blocky runs towards the later time frames , hopefully these starting showing in the operational runs and don't stay in la la land . Cheers .