Chesil View
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Posts posted by Chesil View
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Being on the south coast and never really being the loop for this long drawn out will it won't it where will it snow saga or whatever you want to call it. I'm really more interested in how the blocking builds afterwards into the second half of February.
Greeny. Griceland or Scandi. I don't mind.
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Gfs 06z is even more laughable than the 0z. No other models suggest this outcome in fact they've trendedmore towards the ukmo/ecm solutions in both the short and medium term.
That's the tbing with the Gfs though, when it goes nuts. It goes really nuts be that mild or cold solutions.
Anyone remember just before the the January channel low when it had a huge Griceland block and low after low dropping southwest across us out of Scandi.
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It was quite expected that tonight's ecm would not be as good as this mornings. As IDO pointed out this morning it was an outlier.
That doesn't mean of course that this mornings ecm outcome might not be the actual outcome but simply that it was unlikely to be repeated tonight.
Ideally you want the jump south on this mornings ecm to happen at 48 hours rather than 96..
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stodge very true Stodge.
The best snow I've ever seen. Feb 1978 was from a short fetch southeasternly from a frigid continent.
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Ukmo joins the southward trend party and has the low over Paris by Saturday and much of the in minus 4 to minus 8 uppers
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That would be assuming the icon is correct.
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IDO or of course it could be finding the new way forward.
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Good to see the joy induced by the ecm 0z amongst our Midlands and northwest contingent. Genuinely hope you get a good dumping
Personally I'd like to see a further southward shift so we can all join in.
England does extend south of the M4 you know.
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Interesting gfs 06z. The possible snowy (for some) outcomes next week are as Singularity posted earlier the transional element of a change to colder blocked conditions for second half of Feb and the 06z charts this progression well and sits well with the EC 46 which has been pretty solid on such transition for some time. Local will it snow in my backyard type detail irrelevant at that range.
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jellybaby1969 indeed so.
Deepest most disruptive snow of my lifetime down here in Dorset occurred in the second half Feb.
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MJB indeed at 5 or 6 days out the complexity of the angle and timing of the arrival of the airmasses means a lot more variation will appear right down to T24.
The envelope will narrow but still with variation on the actual outcome.
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The envelope is still far too wide for the meto to be going gung ho in their outlooks. As Blue implies above we need to see that envelope of outcomes narrow considerably for the meto to confidently predict widespread or even regional snowfall with greater than 80% confidence which is their warning threshold.
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Things moving in the right direction for somewhere in England and Wales to see some worthwhile snowfall later next week/next weekend.
Exactly where still very much to be decided at this stage. But good to see us back in the game.
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ICE COLD A southward correction would be nice.
Often happens. We'll wait and see.
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Sub minus 5 uppers and low thicknesses on the ecm day 9/10.
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February 1978. Two week cold spell starting 7th Feb Heavy falls on the 15th and 16th before culminating with The great southwest Blizzard 18/19th. Up to 30 hours of Blizzard conditions. Dorset completely cut off.
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Great post Mike and a good study in how the recent modelling has been underplaying the MJO amplitude by a considerable margin.
I've had the sense over the last two or three days that the NWP is playing catch up and is slightly behind the curve with the speed at which the pattern will change from our current position of positive nao and Euro hieghts to a euro trough and blocking or wedging to our northwest.
Every so often the ops look like they want to create a winter pattern like 1979 but then back away somewhat which would make perfect sense if they have been under modelling the mjo amplitude.
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Lot of where to flow under the bridge before the 10th Feb
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Jan 1979 for repeated cold and snow
Jan 85 first 20 days repeated heavy falls of snow
Jan 87 extreme cold and drifting snow
Jan 1990 Burns day storm
Jan 2004 Thundersnow event late in month.
Jan 2013. Decent fall of snow.
Jan 2014 exceptionally stormy
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@IDO Every once in a while an outlier is actually the trendsetter. We await to see if more ens join in going forward.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Chesil View
And the gfs 06z throws a bone to the great majority of the UK who will miss out on the boundary line snow tomorrow.
As others have stated it is very much in line with the long held seasonal view and the current background signals.
However one can't help but feel we've seen it all before.
Time will tell.