Chesil View

Quite so SB I'd be quite happy to thay low sink south or southeast with a pressure build over the top.

It doesn,t really work like that. 1947 was a once in a 150 year event but 15 years later we had 1963. The once in a hundred year description is a statistical description of the expected return period which is great for statisticians but often completely meaningless in the real world where nature and not statisticians decides what will happen.

Nice looking charts again this morning.Although I would urge caution to anyone expecting a 2010 repeat (for now at least). Back then we had a genuine greenland /arctic high building east to Svalbard and south into the Atlantic. What we have this time is an amplified Atlantic ridging extending north. These are two very different creatures. However there are some retrogression signals in the extended outlooks so one never knows what might occur down the line but for now I do not see the charts showing a Dec 2010 repeat. Obviously this comes with the caveat that I hope I,m proved wrong over the coming days. Lol

Nice looking charts again this morning.Although I would urge caution to anyone expecting a 2010 repeat (for now at least). Back then we had a genuine greenland /arctic high building east to Svalbard and south into the Atlantic. What we have this time is an amplified Atlantic ridging extending north. These are two very different creatures. However there are some retrogression signals in the extended outlooks so one never knows what might occur down the line but for now I do not see the charts showing a Dec 2010 repeat. Obviously this comes with the caveat that I hope I,m proved wrong over the coming days. Lol

Yes we only have to go back 12 months to the fiasco when all 51 ecm ensemble members showed easterly or northeasterly outcomes for it all to go pearshaped on the very next run. The ECM may be the worlds best verifying model but when it gets cold and snowy outlook wrong it usually does so in a spectacular way. The member of this forum called That ECM uses that name for that very reason.

I wouldn,t let Sidney get to complacent based on that Knocker. Isn,t this the same EC 46 model that suggested a cold blocked December last year?

In truth though Karyo none of the modelling over the last few days has shown the country consistently flooded with cold enough uppers anyway. The north always looked more favoured which was what the meto updates were saying. Sadly widespread snow has never been forecast. However I still think there are one or two twists and turns yet. So surprises could still be on the cards.

In reality unless you just want the east coast to have the snow from an easterly or northerly regime.Then milder low pressures trying to push into the cold air is quite a good way of getting snow to other parts of the UK.

Yes I think rural areas did a lot better Mapantz. I thinks Wareham gets protected by the infamous Bournemouth and Poole snow shield. Amazing when you consider that WInfrith is only about 8 miles west of Wareham and probably slightly further south.

This very cold and snowy spell was exceptional at my location. I think rural Dorset was the place to be without a doubt In late November/December 2010. It Set or broke so many records. Coldest December in Dorset since at least 1879. Coldest Xmas day on record in Dorset 36 consecutive air frosts at my weather station in WInfrith Newburgh Previous record minimum of minus 10 beaten on the 2nd December with minus 12 recorded. THis new record lasted just 24 days until minus 13 was recorded on Boxingday morning. Two Ice Days recorded in November !! 16 nights below minus 5 5 nights below minus 10 Earliest substantial December snowfall (4ins)on record, overnight 1st /2nd :December 5 individual snowfall events 12 days with a snowcover. Continuous snow cover from 7.30 am17th until midnight on the 26th 14 ice days. I doubts I shall see another December like it in my life time.

I remember this spell very well. I was working in Bournemouth at the time and it was one of those occasions when the statistics can be used to make a story look much better than the actuality of the event. We had 12 consecutive days on which snow fell, the most since 1963. However this consisted of persistent but mainly non settling flurries. So a great headline, 'Snowiest spell since 63 ' could legitimately be written without any accumulation of snow on the ground whatsoever. Don't you just love the British weather.

Unless or until the meto change their extended outlook I see no reason at all to be disappointed. All this talk of backtracks and garden paths etc seems rather knee jerk and premature. Based on a couple of runs from the American GFS model that most of the time the Americans themselves don,t trust. Members should go on some of the American forums to see the disdain which the GFS is held in compared with ECM and METO. Regular readers of the summaries of American forecasters thoughts posted by Nick Sussex will know only too well how often they side with the ECM against their own model. Keep the faith guys after all winter hasn,t even started yet.

Worth remembering before the toy throwing and writing off of winter in mid November begins that both the Met office and our american friends prefer the ECM prognosis going forward.

Bearing in mind that nothing was really looking like happening until the final week of November any way I,m quite happy with the ECM 240 northern hemisphere chart this morning. High pressure across the pole and Greenland and the jet digging south of the UK.

Quite so BA. If someone offered us at the beginning of September the chance that we'd be going towards December with the PV in bits and high pressure all over the polar regions. We'd have pulled their arm off.

Hi guys I was formerly mcweather. Great to have something interesting to look at even if it is still a way off yet. I have a feeling that rather like Brian Gaze has suggested on TWO that we will see the longer range/seasonal tools making a late break towards something more wintry as they start to smell the coffee rather than allow the undoubtedly warm year to carry on skewing their winter outlooks as they have done so far. The crazily mild outlooks they have been showing were almost as ridiculous as it would be if they were showing a winter like 1684. It,s worth remembering that as others have pointed out that 2010 was the warmest year on record at the time but still gave us record cold and snow both at the beginning and end of the year. When it comes to our winter weather it is the daily/weekly/monthly synoptics that decide whether we get cold and snow not whether the globe as a whole has had a very warm year or not.