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Tracy Flick
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Posts posted by Tracy Flick
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1 hour ago, Hammer50 said:
Why not put the money they waste on forecasting the weather into the NHS as they never get it right in the old days I mean before the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought .
The increase in the number of pensioners with broken bones would cost the NHS more than the extra money it would get. Ice warnings etc are a big deal for the frail, even if not so much for the rest of us.
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Not much light will be escaping from that giant circular monstrosity.
As for blighty's backyard:
A general westerly flow with an occasional northerly component will probably mean slush and early-morning ice could be a theme for many over next 2-ish weeks. Roll on spring, I've had enough.
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Just 3 days to wait for the prognostications of Punxsutawney Phil...
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35 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Absolutely. Anyone dismissing the usefulness of teleconnections is foolish at best, or simply have a lack of understanding about meteorology. Instinct can only go so far!
I don't think the word 'teleconnections' does it any favours... it sounds disturbingly close to telekinesis.
At the end of the day, it's either based on solid physical/mathematical foundations or it isn't. Sounds like it's fair to say that at least some of it is, even though it's initial discovery was apparently from statistical data. (Beware correlation being causation, and all that).
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I wouldn't want to be a farmer on the Somerset Levels if some of these GFS FIs come to fruition.
Hopefully the drainage channels are in good nick(!) Anyway, I'm sure Ian Ferguson would be expressing concern by now if the MetO were even slightly buying it.
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15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
So are you ruling out any cold air from the NW or N with that comment? What proof have you got that the only way will be via Scandinavia please?
He/she says 'meaningful' and 'spell'... his comment doesn't rule out colder snap... seems fine to me.
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Glosea5 model had a decent signal for a SSW in January
Its lost the signal apparently..
There is however a whacking great high anomoly over the Pole on EC 00z- hopefully that will assist the jet tracking further south..
I wasn't aware of this either. Maybe this is a negative side-effect of tweets/MetO-updates being religiously removed from this thread... I don't really have time to check every corner of this website so perhaps if one or two posts on these topics were allowed it would be helpful.
What is GLOSEA if it's not 'model output' anyway?
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Much better 18z GEFS - signal back to raise heights to n-ne.
A "glass is half empty" take would be Glacier Point's dreaded Euro high might be starting to appear.
As ever, hoping I'm rubbish at this.
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If that 16-30 MetO forecast tomorrow evening still indicates snow before week 4 anywhere other than Pennines+mountains, I will eat my hat. I'm just totally mystified by the stubbornness of it. What in the holy hell are they seeing?
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5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Don't usually post in here as I don't have a scooby about interpreting model output, but has the GFS been the model that picks out cold trends this winter, before any other model and the rest soon follow, or am I mistaken?
Well, I haven't been following much but by the sounds of it the EC model is being consistent in forecasting a flatter pattern, so if the models 'flip' (as suggested) it's a success for the GFS IMO... unfortunately if they don't the EC will be strutting like a peacock instead.
(But the caveat is that much of the EC data is paywalled, so maybe the differences aren't as pronounced as they appear to be to us.)
Overnight developments have pushed the swing-o-meter more towards the EC I feel. But hey what do I know.
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A quick look at how GFS,EC modelled the 0-10 days approach to the Dec 10 snow. The black isobars are what actually happened i.e. 0 hour:
EC240:
GFS240:
Both models have the right idea at 240h. The EC is already hinting at an undercut but has Scandinavia as anticyclonic whereas GFS correctly has cyclonic. Both models have a low centre too close to Iceland.
EC216:
GFS216:
EC gets the Greenland/Iceland/Norway cyclonic pattern broadly correct, but GFS has Greenland/Iceland high pressure too far east, and GFS has North Sea low pressure not extending far enough north. I prefer EC here.
EC144:
GFS144:
At +144h both are good. EC seems a bit slow in its evolution though, showing a still well-defined 'slider'.
EC96:
GFS96:
At +96h the EC still has the 'slider' at a too-sharp angle, whereas GFS is picking up on the flattening as the low starts to move E rather than SE.
EC72:
GFS72:
At +72h EC has rectified any problems and is now close to perfect. GFS has the cyclone/anticyclone centres in the right place but the isobars deviate a bit more wildly at times.
EC24:
GFS24:
At +24h, EC is such a good match that the black isobars are often covered. This 'perfect matching' occurs less with GFS.
Finally, here are the full 10 day GIFS:
EC:
GFS:
Conclusion: EC had the clear edge at < 72h. GFS spotted the trends at longer timescales fairly well however. GFS is a bit like the American personality: It broadly answers the fundamental questions but is too brash and impatient to be bothered with the finest details.
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2 hours ago, jvenge said:
Actually, I think people getting excited is perfectly natural and fine.
What personally grates on me is the longer term output being taken as gospel when it shows what someone wants. Then trying to find reasons to discount another model. Then trying to imagine what the output could show if a, b, c, d e, etc etc were to happen instead. Then going on the emotional rollercoaster as some posters live op run to op run. It's exhausting to even try to keep up with as an observed and occasional contributor, so I can only imagine how the people who live it feel ;-)
And it attracts different types. As much as I dislike the rabid cold ramper, the trolls popping in when an output changes the other way is equally as annoying.
The problem with much of the Netweather Forum is that any strong disagreement with the popular consensus is often considered trolling. People with minority opinions aren't trolling, they are often simply challenging lazy assumptions which are too readily given an uncritical pass. They are trying stop the spread of what they consider to be false information.
'Truth' should not be defined by how popular and assertive the poster is, particularly when they provide zero evidence to support their assertion.
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How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?
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3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:
Yep seems to be a trend - the 6z and 18z seems to be delivering the goods in FI...I'd take that.
There are some interesting possibilities for cold and snow fans.
But the southerly track of some of those vicious lows in other FI ensemble members has to be a concern for wind and rain in the south-west, even if it is just a brief transitional phase.
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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:
UKMO 168
hard to say with that view, but looks a lack of ridging in the Atlantic
I think every time someone posts these day 7 charts it should be accompanied by 'hard to say with this view...'
Beyond Caribbean tropical storm stuff I can't see who or what it is supposed to be produced for.
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Not what people care about right now I know, but the last few FI GEFS runs have suggested some nasty vortices spewed into the mid-Atlantic.
Starting to look like an irresistible force meeting an immovable object... who will win?
Hopefully the lows will lose else the south-west could be in the firing-line:
Or maybe the tune will completely change in due course.
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The JMA is slider after slider after slider, some colder than others.
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2 hours ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:
They haven't ditched the Met Office yet.
...but it would be understandable if the MetO have lost motivation to provide the BBC with anything more than the minimum required by their contract at this point.
2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:The BBC forecast are getting worse.
They've basically said there is no chance of any snow, anywhere away from coasts. This is highly misleading, and could even endanger some folk who might make trip which they could postpone if they had warning of bad weather.
And the temperatures are laughable!! 7'c and snow?? The BBC has really taken a nose dive since ditching the Met office
As for that forecast which I haven't seen: while northerlies can be largely underwhelming for many of us, this forecast was nonetheless probably strictly not beyond Friday. But yes, they seem wide of the mark here.
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2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:
What’s becoming apparent in the 12z is a confirmation of how well the GFS has done with this , it really hasn’t let it go, day after day , run after run , for nearly a week , the latest 6-30 day MetO update falls in line with the GFS , moral victory for a model verifying 5th this year !
It had Thursday's low going south of the M4. Now it's going over Shetland.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
The current pattern, where we now have the building blocks in a position so that we can safely say we are on the cusp of triggering a number of slider lows that threaten white outs in much of the UK and a state of emergency being declared, reminds me very much of December 1905 when Edwardian ladies skated on the Thames and squirrels roasted their nuts in regents Park.
I'm not sure even this captures just how epic these charts are though Knocker. They remind me more of when I was a young lad hunting mammoths in the last days of the Pleistocene era.
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The output is all ridgy this, topply that. It smells of frozen slush in the morning. Nobody will be getting powder snow from these synoptics, not in December anyway.
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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Gfs looks great...picking up the slider baton ..
Ukmo on the other hand looks like a 24 hour northerly toppler..
I think apparent toppling is what is wanted, if we want the jet to be able to throw the lows from south of Greenland toward northern France.
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7 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:
Because I wasn't round here since the big freezes of 2009 - 10 and 2013, is this what a big freeze looks like on the models especially the GFS and ECM
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Here's the 2010 archive to start:
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North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Only the 1st week of February and new record temps are being set for February. #Weird