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    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    Funny enough I'm back there now! 10C sounds a bit high for Saturday? I've a feeling it'll be colder than that and if the Pembrokeshire Dangler gets going, so might the hail & lightning again like several days ago. If it doesn't, I too would enjoy walking along the coast path in the low, weak winter sunshine  :D

    This is the day in question; Sunday. 

    Low pressure system passing right over Ireland and SW UK looks like it could bring snow over the hills but not on the coast. Both of those charts would have the wind blowing off a relatively mild Bristol Channel for here anyway so maybe not snow but there could be some more thunder & lightning around the coast as the cold, unstable air combines with mild, moist sea air I'd have thought?  

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    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    Well the ensembles chart looks so cold and snowy for my location in South Wales but the BBC forecast itself has none of it with average temperatures right through from Thursday night and heavy rain on Sunday (oh the joys of living on the coast), only good news is there would be a lot of dry, sunny weather although despite clear skies overnight no frost is even expected with lows of 3 or 4C. Very strange  :cc_confused:

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    Same here in Tenby although 10C is possible on Saturday, so much milder than the ensembles show. Well at least apart from a rainy Sunday we should get plenty of winter sunshine :) it's better than mild, wet & windy imo mate

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Draig Goch said:

    Much more agreement in the colder runs on the GEFS 6z for Porthcawl South Wales. Top photo is yesterday, bottom is today. There's still hopes!! :cold:

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    Wow look at that 850mb temperature fall off a cliff, mind you that isn't the only thing to fall as my yoghurt just fell out of my hand seeing that, luckily the lid is still on! Right I'm off now to book a b&b in Porthcawl :yahoo: because I'm not sure Tenby will be the same

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    Much colder 850mb temperature range in the GFS 6z, here in Porthcawl (near Swansea) South Wales with a max of 8C to a minimum of -10C and the snow risk appearing again (albeit <20%) but unfortunately this isn't expected to happen until a week's time. :nea:

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    Yes, this is a pattern repeated across the coast of South Wales as the GFS 6z shows for Pembroke and also Swansea  :D

    Shall we start getting really excited yet, or do you think we'll have another kick in the teeth by the time next week comes?  :cc_confused:

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    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    :cc_confused: Wow, where has this suddenly come from? Early days but GFS 12z shows some atrocious weather is possible next Friday, severe gales or even storm force wind gusts across parts of the north & west. One to keep an eye on. The outdoor Christmas trees certainly won't like that! 

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    Ooh that looks nasty, tbh I wondered if the jet stream was going to fire up again bringing the pre Christmas storms, but this is different as the winds are coming down from the north, blizzards perhaps? 

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