Islander
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Posts posted by Islander
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So far 100 mph winds and 28 trees down across the island, allegedly Jersey had a tornado
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1 minute ago, Lincs Observation said:
Current recorded wind speeds at 9pm, I suspect things have ramped up a tad since these readings.
Over 65mph here!
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971mb and 65mph winds looks like things are going up a notch, the morning could be ominous
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972mb here and dropping like a stone, torrential rain, and winds going absolutely mental! If this is the calm before tomorrow’s peak god help us!!
#keepsafe
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Hit 60mph now, just feels like this is going to get very bad! Flooding in various coastal areas on the island already, a few trees down in places, only expect this to get much worse! Not even got to the peak yet which will be around 6am #keepsafe
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Already hit 55mph here, worst is not until 6am tomorrow - help!
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Well the rain is coming down now and wind has picked up dramatically, dreading a night’s sleep in this, think the morning will be carnage! 1987 all over again if not worse!
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12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Yeh. There was only about three foot of snow in my backyard.
Yeh think it was "only" about 2.5ft here
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10:20am and 27.5C here in sunny Guernsey. Jersey already up to 29.2C Records will be smashed for sure!
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1 minute ago, Stu_London said:
The problem was it wasn't nearly nailed-on.
There was huge disagreements across models and something like a 15C spread on 850s at about 4-5 days range.
Whenever there is that much uncertainty nothing is nailed on.
Reading the model outlook discussion thread, you could have been mistaken for thinking it was nailed on, as there was a lot of excitement and cherry picking of charts to suit the narrative of a prolonged cold event.
This isn't a criticism of the forum or any specific members. As long as there is such overwhelming bias in terms of people seeking a particular type of weather, it will always be difficult to filter posts that are objective or have a confirmation bias towards the particular type of weather they are seeking out.
Thanks for the reply, and yes I think you're right, it has been very difficult to filter the unbiased and objective posts recently when all you see is everyone banging on about snow, cherry picking charts and getting way too over excited etc (I want snow too btw before anyone has a go). Anyway, lets all take a breath and try to remain calm.... onto the next suite of models to see what surprises they may throw at us!
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I rarely ever post on here, been much more of a lurker (for many years) to those wiser and much more knowledgeable than me, but I'm totally confused how the big three models (GFS, ECM & UKMO) can suddenly flip from what was nearly a nailed on cold 'shot' for some 3/4 days away to what appears to now be a mild wet mush-fest for the festive period!?!
I know the weather does what it wants, but surely over time modelling has got better? I mean if super computers can't predict the weather accurately 4 days away why bother having them? Just to wind everyone up, make people depressed / go mad?* Maybe we stick to looking a couple of days ahead just to keep our sanity, or are we all addicted to 'the chase' of what could be? Chin up people, I still have a sneaky feeling in the next two weeks something special is about to happen - just a hunch!
*delete as applicable
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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Let us never speak of said event again.. AMEN
Errr you can mention it as many times as you like, was a truly awesome experience!!
Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
What a storm! Tree down in my garden and a smashed fence to boot!
100mph winds here, but in France 207kph winds (128mph) blimey!! 
