Midlander
-
Posts
622 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Midlander
-
-
AltonMatthew
Nice, what’s your elevation?
-
Looks like the MO have downgraded the longer-range forecasts
A winter with many expectations and high hopes but very little to show for it...
-
I won't throw in the towel (just yet) for this winter season until the Met Office change their long-range forecasts.
If they do, it would be all the more disappointing given the seasonal model forecasts and the apparent optimism (especially earlier on in the winter) of usually conservative members in the MAD thread about favourable background signals.
-
andy_leics22 Yeah,
GFS ends the day with 18Z being the furthest north of all of today's GFS runs, whilst the ICON 18Z is the furthest south it has been all day.
-
Still hoping for some further southerly shunts, but you can see the ECMWF 12Z was further south than the 00Z
-
1
-
1
-
-
UKMO 12Z slightly more appealing than the 06Z
-
1
-
1
-
-
In marginal situations like this, it is quite nice to have a look at the HD zoom AROME, ARPEGE. Can clearly spot the higher elevation areas
-
1
-
-
GokouD Exactly, can't be too picky when it comes to snowfall!
-
MattStoke Every miles further south helps!
Can see the reason for the snow increase with the 850s
1AM
1PM
-
2
-
-
AltonMatthew Yes, although I vaguely remember that
-
Can see the difference more starkly at 1PM Thursday
-
3
-
1
-
-
ARPEGE Ensembles trickling out now. Looks as though the colder 850's average are further south, prior to the precip
-
1
-
-
In ARPEGE we trust!
-
Beggars can't be choosers, especially in this modern climate era. I'll take a few hours of heavy, picturesque snow, even if it does eventually all wash away
-
2
-
-
-
Can’t bear it!
Think I have to go for the nuclear option and hope and
for a full-blown collapse of the AMOC and Gulf Stream… Maybe then we’ll get proper cold 
-
4
-
-
Wretched EC 46 with cold pushed back even further into February... dreadful
-
Utterly devastated by the lack of widespread, heavy and disruptive snow. We deserve it after endless months of warmer-than-average temperatures. I was hoping this cold spell may be one to remember, especially given the optimism of some members in the main thread. But it appears this is yet another case of things becoming less exciting as we approach T0. Still hoping for a snow bomb this season but expecting disappointment.
-
1
-
1
-
-
We may well have a greater chance of recording ice days than snow next week
-
Just now, MattStoke said:
It is a bit further north but it barely made it into the UK on the 12z.
Yeah, would still need a bigger push north, but I suppose every little helps
-
1
-
-
Looks like the precip is further north on the 18Z, although it could just be timing differences...
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
GEM does actually bring snow from Wednesday’s system across the Midlands but it looks light away from the south.
Then another system moves in ftom the west and gives snow on Thursday.
On Friday a 3rd system brings snow up from the south.
It’s the sort of model run I dream about but that never verifies.
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:would rather it did go into France then after all
Haha
-
I count about 4 GFS perts bringing the system far enough north to the Midlands. Pert 27 looks the best, but if the GEM is correct, I doubt many would complain if we miss out
-
1
-
-
Looks a bit ‘meh’ tbh.
I could live with the low moving into to France if it helped strengthen the cold spell.
But looks like the Atlantic will just roll in with a wet rather snowy breakdown
-
2
-
Midlands regional discussion - Spring 2024
in Midlands Weather Discussion
Posted
As we now enter Spring, I just wanted to recap on 'Winter 23/24'