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Vortex3929

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    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, lottiekent said:

    Anyone central southern south coast are at the centre of the low at the moment so as you know, that means winds are calm for the moment.

    It does look like according to netwx radar the centre is roughly Reading area. So the expected shift north of Ciaran once it makes "landfall" might have begun.

    With that in mind, the SE quadrant, and higher wind gusts should now start being felt in SE, with SW England seeing round 2 of the winds picking up again IMO

    • Like 1

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

     telling is to boil a kettle and put it in a flask

    I don't think my kettle will fit in my flask 😛

    Had our water company email and text yesterday and housing association do the same today with general info. Never known them to do that before so something new. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

    I have to say that I’m a bit worried, I’m right on the coast on my own with my kids. I’m not looking forward to this. Sorry for sounding like a scared little girl 

    No need to be sorry, Donna. Completely normal to feel worried and it is understandable. Try not to think too far ahead right now and focus your mind on something other than your mind trying to run off with different scenarios ("what if..", what about...). Yes it does seem scary because it's an unknown right now. We fear and worry over the unknown and that is perfectly normal to feel like that.  Just know that you aren't alone. I'm certain there are MANY others who are also experiencing the same concerns as you - especially when they have their kids to think of too. *hug* 🙂

    • Like 3

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It is the storm of 87 that got me interested in weather and my true love for the extremes weather can bring. Fascinating.

    I won't bore you with my "overnight" stories but 4 year old me seeing the madness and destruction the following morning and being WOW - Weather did this? 

    Honestly.. If i could experience those same feelings from that night and the following morning again, I would. I truly felt "alive". However, 40 year old me now a days is much more aware of others and as much as I would like another 87, the effect it would have on others does outweigh that desire. Plus my mental health and self loathing doesn't need a new reason to pick up.    "This is what I wanted, and look what has happened..  damage, injuries and (God forbid!!) deaths.. this is my fault..." etc etc. But yeh, so moving on 😊

    Whether we see any new corrections in the models and track, whatever may or may not happen with Ciaran, stay safe people. Especially those on the coasts.. alexis etc. Y'all shall be in my prayers

    • Like 5

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vortex3929

    14 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

    The M23 this lunchtime was more of a river than a motorway. Luckily everyone was driving sensibly, 40mph was as fast as you could safely go due to the amount of rain, spray and surface water.

     

    1 lane of Junction 5-4 of the M2 has been closed due to flooding according to the local news. 14 mile tailback apparently 

    • Thanks 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Thanks UKV!

    Could contain:

    Could contain:

    Looking at the timing of those 2 charts, that is going to occur during the morning rush hour too and to continue through the day. Dangerous winds at any time but when most people are likely to be out travelling or day to day activities makes it twice as dangerous!  Glad I booked that day off work so I could get repair guy in for my flat, but honestly hope the guy stays home if these charts verify. A repair can wait. Stopping someone being injured (or worse) is WAY more important 

    • Like 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Here's the latest output from a selection of models showing the expected rainfall accumulation from today (Weds) through to end Saturday 21st. Whilst much of the broadcast media seems to be focussing on the impact for NE Scotland - where indeed there will be large totals accumulating 141mm** or 5.6 inches on the hills - my attention is drawn to the prospect of 75mm (3 inches) in the built-up SE corner of the Region. That's going to bring a real possibility of flash flooding and disruption to road and rail travel. Indeed, for many other parts of the Region including London there could be 50mm+ (2 inches). The timing of the most disruptive rainfall will be from Friday teatime through to Saturday teatime with 24 hours of heavy rain. It's a situation that needs watching as the models fine tune their output.

    Output from Arpege, GFS and UKV. Interesting that UKV on its own suggesting the largest accumulations are further along the South Coast towards Portsmouth:

    ArpegecumrainfalltoendSat21Oct23.thumb.png.70cce1912f4e862d9ed8a8fb8a4ab765.pngGFScumrainfalltoendSat21Oct23.thumb.png.6aa481c413ee97aef7054c3fa0871349.pngUKVcumrainfalltoendSat21Oct23.thumb.png.de83246af01335faf40093f3e4da9893.png

    Sources:
    Arpege and GFS https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/
    UKV (Netweather Extra) https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?;sess=

    Edit: **Latest forecasts suggesting 200mm for the hills of NE Scotland and UKV data even suggesting the possibility of 300mm!! Remarkable totals in such a short space of time and a real worry for that part of Scotland.

    Red warning by meto for an area of Scotland.

    • Thanks 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, TN9 said:

    Flooding if you have arm bands is better than drought ..lesser of two evils I know but ..this just downed me (excuse the pun ) but 300 meters ...(north and south downs ).but i know now why we clutch at straws in winter for snow ..lot of variables I know but blimey that's bad .. and if you was a mountaineer top of mont  blanc you have cold rain ..( join the club ) 🙂

     

    Could contain:

    Hey buddy. Been a while! Indeed there's many variables especially for us as you say and it seems something exceptional is needed to guarantee snow now a days. That article does suck too but remember it does say August for them. Do the alps have an all round snow-cover at the tops i wonder (or did, going by that article...)

    It also reminded me of a pretty depressing article back in 2020. Straw clutching? Hug a haystack from this article 

    _105429907_snowkids.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

    WWW.BBC.COM
    By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

     

     

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Like freeze said, this morning didn't look like a day I wanted to leave my bed. Damp, cloudy and generally yuk! But alas, work. By 1030am it started to brighten with quite the lovely afternoon. Blue skies and sunshine with Sunday still looking lovely temperature wise, albeit breezy

    Seen on YouTube however new York has had quite the rainfall. 5 inches for some parts leading to flooding.  Poor folks 😞 

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