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Vortex3929

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What's the betting the long range of prolonged, widespread cold does mean the high pressure mentioned just before this, will sit right over the UK meaning cold sure, but dry and not provide any snow. I'd take clear cold sunny days though. Perfect walking weather! Better than rain, or the wind that I see the met office have a yellow alert out for. 

    To all of you lovely people, I wish you all a very merry Christmas. No stress, may the inlaws be a fleeting visit and that you are all showered with gifts. I've been very blessed to be a part of this regional thread over 2023... hugs all round 🤗 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Jacob said:

    Finally

    C6ADD8F5-131B-4A0A-8F43-5F983A2CC6A7.jpeg

    Would this one mean those blues at the end are starting to show stratospheric winds slowing down as would be expected or hoped with associated SSW likr others had posted in recent days with those mass of blue lines all dropping down to lower speeds?

    And if I'm incorrect about my interpretation on this chart.. could you please elaborate to what this chart does show? And what you mean by finally?? Because I'm sure there are a lot of us that don't have your experience and knowledge and haven't a scooby what those mean... myself included if I'm incorrect. 

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Yep, I used to do thst for some reason but I decided that last year for 3 months, I'd research in-depth a lot and now I try and write paragraphs explaining my thoughts where I don't let my biases overtake by using "could" for example. This just means that I realise that sometimes I may be assuming a lot about what happens if this certain chart is right. I'll try and give examples of each situation that could play out to show the full picture. 

    I am grateful that you do explain, and that also you don't hopecast instead of forecast.

    Keep that up! It helps

    • Like 2

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, MAF said:

    Last time i posted there i was shot down in flames for asking posters to elaborate a bit more and stop using abbreviations without explaining them. never again! 🤣

    I am quite a literate person, but some of the stuff posted in there is complete and utter tripe sometimes. 🙄

    Absolutely spot on! That is a huge pet peeve of mine. And posting just a chart with one word or nothing at all.

    Boom! Yay. Downgrade. Explain the flipping thing as well😡 why is this a boom, Upgrade, downgrade...

    I understand most but then we get a few which to me are just colours I switch off and don't learn which is incredibly frustrating. 

    End of rant 

    • Like 5

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

    Just had the loudest crack of Thunder I've heard here in Lee, for a very long time.

    Not great for this Brontophobe and has added to my stress after experiencing a Prostate Gland Biopsy Yesterday, for suspected Cancer.

    Regards,

    Tom Q. 👍

    Like others have said, so very dark today and so, so much rain! I was expecting to see an ark sail by the window at one point. Anyone got Noah's number just incase? 

    Praying for good news in the results as well Mr Q! Keep us posted 🙏

     

    • Like 2

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vortex3929

    2 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

    I'm Autistic, with PTSD and this weather is making me feel even worse 😞 SAD!  

    I don't mind a bit of rain but it's been relentless since the end of Summer

    That sucks dude! Do you have any coping mechanisms / support network that see you through the more troubling times? Or any bright and cheerful colours to focus your attention on?

    I dislike rain but instead of focusing on why I don't like rain.. I focus on the different sounds of rain. The rhythm of raindrops, the different volumes of the rain hitting the window. How some are louder than others, how they sound hitting leafs compared to the ground, an outside piece of furniture. Get totally absorbed by the rain, instead of soaked by what the rain represents to me. That way I lose sight of rain being "bad" so to speak and just know it as rain.. water... h2o.. or just become thankful I am not out in it😁

    Try to remember as well that (as I'm sure you well know), yes - it is a difficult time for many but time is also a period that has a beginning and an END! We like endings, the happier ones anyways. Like the old saying, every cloud has a silver lining.. it is searching for it and not getting distracted by the cloud itself.

    I (and others im sure) are all here for you! You're not alone in your experiences 😊

    You're all good my friend... you got this 😎

    • Like 3

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, ChillyJuju said:

    Wow it was different weather on the top of the hill by the sounds of it cos it was dark skies this morning which became glorious sunshine and racing wind 🌞🌬️

    Or where the jabs from the Dentist yesterday a bit too good? 🤭

    "Duuudee.. these jabs are like, totally awesome mannnn. I'm seeing like - sunny skies and seeing wind racing. Rad! 🤙"

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Uxbridge90 said:

    I'll whisper it quietly as it goes against the forum hive mind, but I'll take this weather all winter long if we aren't going to get any proper heavy lying snow (obviously from a IMBY perspective) 10c and Sunny. Sunshine, light jacket to go for a walk and the heating off.

    As Dell would say, lovely jubbly! 

    Agree completely with this. And indeed perfect walking weather. A clear sunny day makes you feel good too. At least I find it does for me

     

    • Like 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Haven't seen outside for over 20 hours (admitted to hospital.. could be out today, could be here for 5 more days) but radar looks yuck. Quite glad I can't venture out to be fair, although reasons why suck!

    Not a lot of promise reading the mod thread either it seems but that's OK. Gives those avid model watchers a rest from the fatigue and can start fresh in a week or so.

    I have heard chatter that around Christmas and NY could be the next chase?

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Things are progressing very nicely. @Catacolsummed up the current situation very well in the post above but I just want to touch on something from my post last Monday. 

    I mentioned that we’d likely to see a strong +EAMT event (East Asian Mountain Torque) and that’s now starting to show up (red line). 

    IMG_3611.thumb.gif.4c12e309fe7772c065d1b08f7df916d1.gif
    This in line with the progression explained in the quoted post. 

    Essentially positive mountain torque takes momentum from earths orbit & places it into the atmosphere, I.e increased westerlies within the windflow budget, AAM goes up. 

    Westerlies from a +EAMT often go into the Pacific jet causing it to extend eastwards which can lead to strong wave breaking events that amplify the pattern downstream, I.e a more meandering/amplified jet across the Atlantic  

    Watch Strat forecasts in the coming 1-2 weeks, the signal for an SSW is probably going to start increasing for early January. 

    Thank you for explaining this. And as a complete novice to EAMT / AAM with absolutely no understanding, can I just check a few things?

    If we see positive mountain torque ("+MT"), this is a good thing from a cold perspective as it then causes the jetstream to meander and allows for potential blocking?

    Is this correct? And does it have to be EAMT that has to be in the +ve territory that is good newe or would the other coloured lines being +ve also aid in good news for coldies?

    Is an +EAMT always a westerly, where I'm presuming a -EAMT would then be an Easterly and give more "power"(???) to a different jetstream and this then is bad news for coldies?

    I Think it's best not to get too involved in wave breaks until I get an understanding in MT. As I want to ask about these, but MT is confusing enough for me right now.

    Thanks in advance and please do keep up the posts with a simplified explanation.. these are so helpful and useful. I find that if anyone just posts a chart and doesn't expand on why this is good, bad, a nightmare etc.. it serves no real purpose to people like me apart from showing they know more than others. And that is very discouraging to newbies

    • Like 5
    • Insightful 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, TN9 said:

    For me burnham is in the way and the  isle of  sheppey doesnt help matters lol , these are two different places 480 ft difference height wise

     

       

     

    this morning ...wateringbury  and west kingsdown (on the winds trajectory)

    You had notable weather again? Twice in the same year..,? 

    I did think of you when I saw it snowing at work this morning and wondered if you had snow or if your shield held firm😄

    • Like 1
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