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Big Snow
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Posts posted by Big Snow
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Rob McElwee was the perfect presenter; the right mix of knowledge and gravitas. I always remember December 09 when he gave a really wintry forecast for the weekend, and signed off with: "Oh, and then there's Monday still to come..." And gave a little evil cackle.
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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:
EPS have a habit of leaning againt ECM right? Even so, a glancing blow at most still makes more sense to me than the low getting right across the UK.
Maybe the low getting across the far south as per UKMO 12z in the most extreme case - but the major letdown of March 2013 has made me completely unable to trust such outcomes at more than a few days’ range.
Having said that, while a halfway house between GFS and ECM remains a very snowy outcome, I will be feeling at least a little positive with respect to that potential event.
Just a whole bunch of potential snow streamers to resolve first...!
Just wondering, what was the March 2013 letdown? A channel low that stayed south?
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25 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:
Emotions tend to get a bit carried away by many people on this forum. People are all too often willing to take a long term forecast as gospel and then wonder why, when things get closer to the timeframe, things change and then get annoyed when it doesn't go their way...
This cold period is nailed-on, but what isn't is the precipitation.
The further East you are in our region, the more likely you are to have persistent and (at times) heavy precipitation. Those of us further inland will have to rely on streamers and frontal systems to get anything of worth. The thing to do is to keep an eye on the radar from Sunday night onwards... There are many chances of a Thames streamer developing, but even then, the snowfall can be VERY localised, so some places will see snow, others not.
For my location, things are still very much in the air, I could see streamer action, but as so many times in the past, I reckon that many of us further West in the region might be left clutching at straws until a more organised band of showers or a frontal system arrives.
Best of luck to all, but please, let's not get jealous of those who happen to be lucky.
(By the way, good to see you back CK)
Yeah it's tricky for anyone further north and west in our region. I think there is a fair chance of streamers setting up which could benefit west / north-west London up into Bucks and Herts if the winds swings ESE. Think Feb 09.
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I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?
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Just now, SLEETY said:
It’s too early to know how much snow will fall but I’d be surprised if most of our region don’t get several inches even where we are in the western parts,the strong wind will blow the showers well inland,that’s if it settles,the met office don’t seem confident it seems of that now,despite 850hpa of around -15c and sub zero dew points,could be just a poor worded forecast hopefully!
You've answered your own worry. With such low DPs settling snow will not be a problem.
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2 minutes ago, danm said:
I live in north east London and on 1st Dec 2010 we had a few inches of snowfall. Certainly not just a dusting.
Ah, I stand corrected. I was in west London at the time and we had maybe 2cms; makes sense you might have had more. You're probably in a prime position for showers that drift down through East Anglia then.
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30 minutes ago, saint said:
Let's hope not! Hopefully the levels of cold and instability combined with the North Sea will allow showers to affect almost anywhere as the week goes on, and also little features etc pop up. We'll know more by Sunday I imagine.
Absolutely, I don't doubt most of us will see snow at some point, but always the heaviest to the east and south-east of central London.
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I would imagine there will be quite a divide in London early next week. My sense is that east and south-east London could benefit from a Thames streamer; north and west London may miss out a on the heaviest and most persistent snow. Similar to December 1, 2010, when places like Bromley were buried, while north of the river there was a dusting. If I lived in north Kent right now I would be wetting myself with excitement.
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I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!
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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Do you know something we don't???
Oops, 12Z. Had an attack of the vapours...
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If the ECM 18Z was stellar...we've just gone interstellar.
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Hi all, just a question for someone more knowlegable than me (that'll be most of you...)
Regarding the colder air potentially slipping south, would that be caused by high pressure building from Greenland over the UK, as a result of a second bout of stratospheric warming, deflecting the colder air away from us?
Might be way off the mark with that but trying to learn as I go!
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The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.
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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
No same resolution as OP and it’s not started using same initial data I’m sure different starting data. The ensembles only past 10 are they really low res I believe.
Thanks for explaining, much appreciated.
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Hi all, I only have a very basic understanding of the charts and was wondering, what's the difference between the 'op' run and the 'control' run? Is there a difference in reliability etc? Cheers and keep up the great analysis.
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Hi all,
I'm a long-time lurker, lured by the (faint) prospect of snow on Sunday! Please ignore the graphic posted by Cheesrice, it's a forecast from 10 years ago, NOT this Sunday. See the forecast here...
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Just now, snowray said:
OMG, are you serious, what time Sunday is it?
Latest fax chart shows things further south, but that is just out of this world!
He's on the wind-up mate, that forecast is from a snowfall in Feb 2007...
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Big Snow
I love this forum but it drives me crackers sometimes. People spend years chasing a historic cold spell, and now one is on our doorstep, and people are wetting themselves over a breakdown that is six days away.
I'll bet my house that low tracks much further south than the GFS shows. Seen it so many times.
EDIT - Not my house, a fiver