Atleastitwillbemild

Is there any way of getting this to pause or slow down so you can see its progression a bit slower?

I think all the concerns are totally valid. It would definitely make humans lazy and then there is the frightening prospect of rapid rebound warming if we cannot maintain the technology and the risks of unknown effects are high. But I always thought that considering we are performing a crazy experiment on our climate right now by warming it so much that it seems like a very strange stance for scientists to take by claiming climate engineering is a "risky experiment". What on earth do they think AGW is? As for the laziness well that is something that no amount of dire warning, campaigning, protests and fear has even made a dent in to so I think we can pretty safely assume at this point that nothing will. I understand their trepidation but the fear of the unknown consequences seem kind of odd when we are facing exactly that anyway. Its like choosing between two types of execution and saying one type may be dangerous. At least with engineering we have a chance at survival. I guess I just wish we could at least start field tests. I don't honestly think we have that much time.

This is so profoundly depressing. Not only to look at but to consider how much worse this is going to get in our lifetimes. I know its a very very unpopular idea but sometimes I wish they'd get a move on with climate engineering technology and reverse this somehow. Especially considering how the energy crisis has made countries all round the world start picking up their phones and drunk texting coal and gas like "I miss you, come over..." Even Germany is abandoning their climate targets in the desperate back of the sofa rummage for any cheap source of fossil fuel. We're never ever going to meet our carbon targets so if we want to survive then engineering the climate I think is going to be the only hope we have. Imagine if we could reduce the worlds temp to pre-industrial levels with technology?

Its not the frost and snow we're wishing away as I have really enjoyed that. Its just the darkness, for those of us with SAD its a nightmare no-one really believes is genuine. One of the reasons I love cold weather so much in winter is because it usually means dry and clear with abundant sunlight like it did these past few weeks. So I for one love the cold (frost more than snow which can lead to dull skies) but I would just prefer it if the UK was at a lower lattitude like some states of America that have bitterly cold temperatures but remain as southerly as Turkey.

Currently 2 c here but drove to an esso garage at 5am this morning through the Marlborough downs from Marlbrough to Burbage and the car thermometer dipped to - 7.5 c ! That's the coldest Ive seen for about 10 years. The frost is the thickest I have seen for a long long time. And the sun and blue skies have been glorious during the day. I think this has been a better cold spell for the south west than many others. It reminds me of the cold spells of my youth with had day after day of clear nights an sunny days and successively deeper dips in termperature with frost pockets lingering all day. I havent seen a cold sunny dry spell like this for a long long time. Its been wonderful. Not fussed about snow.

When it comes to projected easterlies I'm as about as mistrusting and cynical as it gets. Big eye roll from me too.

I was kidding about the relocate. I don't think Svalbard has that many cut price bedsits for a minimum wage dog like me. I couldn't even move up the road right now. But I tell you what if they needed a pot washer or waiter in the restaurant of some of those tacky Lapland Christmas cringe fests I'm ready to move and slap on the marigolds.

Yes you did, sorry. I think I go a bit overboard in the soapbox rants about climate change. You're probably right in that a below average month is bound to occur eventually (all my savings on a bet it will be during a useless spring month, you know it!) I think I just rant about it when people chatter excitedly about the possibility of a cold winter as psychological thing to deal with how sad it all makes me. I think I overcompensate. Its like reverse psychology. I just find it the inevitability of this looming catastrophe very depressing and sad. Its not like its even "looming" anymore as this nightmare of summer proved. God help me if that becomes a regularity. I will relocate to Svalbard.

Fully expecting some mildness records to be shattered this winter. Christmas barbecue anyone?

Unsustainable? I think just a quick google search about some of the catastrophic warming projected to not only take place, but happen faster than anyone actually predicted demonstrates that periods of unusual warmth are not only sustainable but likely to intensify. We broke the 40 celcius barrier this summer for the first time in 400 years of weather records. How little that actually alarmed anyone, either among the general public or on weather forums among people who should understand the distrubing significance of that event, was astonishing. All you hear about was what a "wonderful summer" it was. There was nothing wonderful about seeing dangerous extreme heat the likes of which has been totally unprecedented. Yes when you look back historically at weather cycles there are warm periods followed by cold ones, but I'm not sure how relevant looking back at how our weather behaved before is anymore. What could have been explained as an anamolous spike in temps over an 18 month period decades ago - one that would eventually come down - is less likely to be a random spike now, and just a progression of the upward climb of our climate baseline. Considering how fast our runaway warming is currently spiralling out of control there is no reason this run of above average temps has to come down at all.

0.0 here this morning in Marlborough which makes this the 3rd frost and 1st air frost of the season. Doing very well compared to some seasons where I didn't see even a hint of frost until December. Scraping my car window in October feels very seasonal. All the sunny days and cold nights are producing some very vivid autumn colours here too. Its been a lovely autumn so far.

2nd ground frost of the season here in the chilly reliably cold frost pocket of Marlborough at 0.5 c. Drove in from Swindon which is currently at 7.5 c so quite an incredible contrast. The dip starts immediately as you enter the valley of the Ogbournes. The car thermometer will dip about 5c, sometimes within 30 seconds. This is a lot of fun in winter where a pretty non descript night drive - reading just above freezing temps in Swindon - will suddenly dip to -3 or -4 on entering the Ogbourne valley.

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions; and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite? NEWSFLASH: winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible. You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c. The stupidity of this denial is staggering.

Yes, frankly she is morally obliged to shower us with nothing but benevolence. It would be outrageous for her to do anything but. Especially after we've spent the past 200 years pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, dumping plastic into the ocean rapidly deforresting every corner of the globe to provide cardboard packaging for boxes of coco-pops. Where's our medal?

We had a maritime climate during the 80's which had nationwide snow events nearly every other year. We had a maritime climate during the 60's and the 40's and the period from 1300 to 1850 which saw great frosts last for months at a time. The problem isn't the atlantic. It's that there's too much damn heat in it now and not enough cold air to our east and north anymore. And that's only going to get worse for the next 2000 years and that's if we stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere tomorrow. Which we're not going to do so the climate of this earth will be ruined for a lot longer after all the oil and coal is gone. So yes you're right, moaning is pretty pointless tbh. By the time I am elderly I doubt we'll see frost or snow at all during any winter month. Its probably better to embrace our new unliveable earth where human habitation in the regions between the tropics is impossible and there isnt enough landmass to fit all the refugees from those areas. At least the north coast of Siberia can start exploring its tourism and leisure opportunities.

When it comes to the this particular corner of the world as far as mild, wet winters go then it can never be too cold, or two warm. It's never too late in the year or too early for a mild wet spell. It can never be to too strong an El Nino, a too westerly based one or too easterly. It can be mild and wet through a weak La Nina. Or a moderate one. Or record breakingly, WTF is going in the pacific, has god dropped the ice from his gin and tonic in there strong one. Disappointingly mild wind and rain can come from any direction whether the wind is northerly, easterly, southerly, northeasterly, from the basement of hell in the centre of the Earth or from outer space. It can be mild and wet through a negative AO. It can be mild and wet despite a strongly negative NAO. It can be mild and wet for days after a massive SSW or weeks after. It can stay mild and wet through all phases of the MJO. It can be mild and wet throughout the entire phase of an easterly QBO, as well as a westerly. It can be mild and wet under a cold inversion, or a two day toppler. It can be mild and wet after a poor summer of persistent northern blocking and little ice age style washout summers. It can be mild and wet despite a warm, dry, sunny October promisingly matching patterns that just practically spell out severe winter - I mean, just look at the projected predictions matching with previous autumns with similar patterns! How can it fail!? It can stay mild and wet as the Spanish plains white out with snow and the beaches of Turkey freeze over with ice and the roofs collapse with the weight of the snow in the villages of Bulgaria and the children dance barefoot with delight in the unusually heavy snow in Cyprus. It can be mild and wet despite Met office predictions and the JMA. It can deliver nothing but mild rain despite the promises of the the ECM, the GFS, the Jamstec charts and the tea leaves at the bottom of granny's teacup. It can be mild and wet in winter despite a perfect tripole in May. It can stay mild and wet despite the abundance of berries on every bush and fat squirells crying into their video diary about how they love their bodies and will no longer allow themselves to be fat shamed. It will be mild and wet despite the cold september theory, the foggy autumn theory, the warm october theory. It can stay mild and wet while the super powers nuke themselves into oblivion at the same time as Yellowstone's caldera supervolcano explodes and releases 50 billion megatons of dust into the atmosphere plummeting the world's temperature by 10 degrees. The entire northern hemisphere could be covered in glaciers burying all the crop growing areas in ice and making the raging blizzards of frozen volcanic ash and radioactive snow over the major landmasses totally unliveable as billions die from hypothermia buried under snow drifts 60 foot high and YOU KNOW. You know it don't don't you? There'll still be a little corner of the northwest Eurasian landmass, ice free, basking in mild westerlies. It will still be 13c and drizzle while the survivors dig potatoes and rye from the lukewarm earth commenting on how at least its 'mild' compared to saudi arabia right now.

Well here we are at the peak of The Great Freeze! The Big Beast! and it was a whopping - 1.5 on the way home from Newbury. And yes I understand how lucky I am to have even made it home. I won't play dice with the elements like that again. The dry, black winter wonderland was wonderful to see though.

Oh I'm sorry I'm a healthcare worker who works night shifts. I was busy last night preparing the body of yet another covid victim so they would at least look dignified when the undertakers came to collect them and I needed a bit of a nap after. I should have set the alarm to respond more promptly!

Well considering its the designated moaning area of this forum I think its perfectly acceptable for anyone to use this place to let of steam they would have otherwise clogged the main threads with. Why have this thread exist otherwise? Someone moaning in the moaning thread? Shocking! If it bothers you don't come here. If you're pleased as punch with your 2 feet of snow and grinning ear to ear after all day sledging with the dog and fam, why not just boast and gloat on the photo thread and snow report page instead of coming on here to nag the less lucky about their ingratitude? And yes it is possible for the west to get snow during an easterly. Lots of snow. Noone expects "blizzards from Moscow" but a channel low or an incoming front from the atlantic has buried the southwest in previous easterlies so the comparisson to other "beasts" is fair. I would be happy to tell anyone in Scotland its been crap as they get plenty of snow all the time so what would they even know about a snow drought? The hills up there can get buried from a northwesterly. I'm afraid this beast has been crap. There i'll say it again: crap crap crap crap crap crap crap. If you can't even manage a night temp lower than -3 in central southern england during a beasterly when you could easily suprass that during a two day northerly toppler ten years ago then guess what? IT'S CRAP.

Well I must say I'm really looking forward to this RAGING BEAST of a cold spell. - 3 degrees by night and - 0.5 by day. Somebody control this beast! There's nothing quite like a cold blast where the skies are a gloomy, gun metal grey, the same clouds prevent any frost at night, the wind prevents any frost at all and it delivers absolutely no snow! Unpleasant chill through your clothes, expensive to heat your home and nothing wintery or white to make any of it worthwhile! Hats off to you winter 20/21! You've done it again! It used to get down to - 7 here on the 4th night of a frosty high during the "dark" days of the snowless 90's. I'd take that over this pile of crap any day.

I'm not impressed with the forecasts for this cold spell as of yet. Yes it would lovely to see some snow, even if it is a brief shower with a light dusting on cars for a few hours for us on the Marlborough downs but I remember what even fairly ordinary cold snaps used to be like. Even in the supposedly poor winters of the 90's and 00's it would be fairly common to get a week of completely clear high pressure where day after day would be clear and sunny and the nights would get colder and colder by succession, building up on the patches of frost that had stuck around in shaded places throughout the day so that by the time it got to the 4th or 5th day the night temps would be pushing - 5 in the city. - 6/7 in the country easily. This wasn't anything unusal even in the poor winters duing a short cold snap and the nights would be gin clear with not a cloud in the sky. For the past few winters all of our supposedly cold highs have been repeatedly contaminated by low level cloud and prevented any real frost. This winter so far has been really frustrating for that. Evenings that started off with clear skies and plummeting temps were suddenly ruined by a gradual clouding over by midnight leaving us with tiny patches of frozen dew or no frost at all and temps of 3c. Ive looked at the modelling for min temps up to the 5th of Jan and see that for the majority of Southern central E the lowest we're looking at is -1 or even -2 at a push. This wouldn't even qualify as a cold snap as little as 10 years ago. Shows how despetate we've become where the prize calf has been slaughtered to celebrate week of -1 night temps and sleet.

I've often had this in mind as the no.1 top suspect for that incredible December. Major eruptions happen all the time (well not really but hisotrically common) and they don't often lead to dramatic effects for Europe, but Eyjafjallajokull was special in that it's located right in the area we want normal weather patterns to be disturbed. I have absolutely zero scientific evidence to back my gut hunch up with but I just have a strong feeling that eruption played a huge part.

This is an incedibly helpful post and thank you so much for taking the time to post it. Really answers one of the main things that have been bugging me about freezing fog - which is to say why it forms in some subzero temperatures and not others - really well. Thank you x

That's the most helpful answer yet! Learned a lot from that so thank you.

How are you able to tell that this particular set up could lead to freezing fog ? I have an interest in freezing fog as a weather phenomenon but can never seem to get clear answers as to why certain synoptic conditions produce freezing fog as opposed to just a clear night of very low minima. People tell me fog is produced by heat radiating into a clear sky at night, but if that were the case, fog would occur every clear night in winter! Which it doesn't. I know this is probably the wrong thread to ask but seeing as though you mentioned something specific in this chart that would lead specifically to freezing fog rather than just a freezing cold clear night - what is it exactly? Thanks