frederiksen90

Det er måske godt, at prognoserne er milde. Sidste år var stort set alle kolde og blokerede. Men jeg må indrømme ærligt, at jeg synes, at forholdene er meget bedre i år. Vi har ramt solminimumet med meget lav geomagnetisk aktivitet, NAO har været stabil negativ, troposfæren helt blokeret gennem året, og QBO ser ud til at vende mod den østlige fase. Endelig har vi en tripole i det nordlige Atlanterhav, der favoriserer en negativ NAO (også modsat de sidste 5-6 vintre) med varme omkring Grønland, især Vestgrønland såvel som koldere vand ved Newfoundland, der igen udvikler sig: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Sidste år pegede SST klart på en positiv NAO med koldt vand i Grønland - og den tendens har vi haft siden de kolde vintre sluttede i 2013. Vi havde en vestlig QBO og El Nino. Så der er flere ting, der taler for en kold europæisk vinter i år, mener jeg. Sidste år blev de sandsynligvis lokket til at tro på de lovende prognoser. Vi har også udsigt til en neutral ENSO, som det straks ser ud. Dette betyder, at der sandsynligvis ikke vil være noget her, der betyder noget for Europa. Derefter åbnes det for muligheden for, at solenergimindet og det østlige QBO i kombination kan have en fælles og stærk virkning på blokering med Atlanterhavets tripole. Jeg er temmelig optimistisk for en kold vinter.

Studies show that low geomagnetic activity coincides with negative NAO and a warmer arctic via increasing blockage and interconnection between the troposphere and the stratosphere. It is striking that after the solar wind has been unusually weak in 2019, the blocking frequency on the Atlantic side of Greenland increased, leading to the reverse ocean circulation of recent years, while tropospheric blocking has continued for months coinciding with negative NAO. Exciting times, because then we may very well have an interesting winter ahead in Europe. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11200-014-0508-z?fbclid=IwAR3quJ2Ai6OAsQPTSh-Q0MQKdNTrqDBUOtxzfH_KjU9JmITYplmnUs2vTaI https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Actually, it's not the number of sun spots that matter most. It is the AP index - the sun's geomagnetic activity that has shown exquisite correlation with the NAO since 1970. The phase of the lowest activity of the solar wind typically occurs after the sunspots are reduced and at the beginning of a new cycle - and it is therefore possible that one cannot see any major correlation between "just" solar minimum and regional / global climate. Usually, the stratosphere and troposphere are not coupled in the summer - but experts have wondered that recent stratospheric warming has affected tropospheric blocking so long this year with unusually long negative NAO. It could just be associated with solar minimum, as research suggests that weak solar wind increases cosmic radiation penetration into the stratosphere, which causes tropospheric blockage. I am very excited about whether it is a warning about what awaits Europe from the coming winter : http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/tag/solar

This affects the sun's minimum blocking frequency, sea surface pressure and sea surface temperature. Last 10 years summer NAO (values for 2009-2018). 2009 -1.0 2010 -1.9 2011 -2.5 2012 -1.4 2013 +2.0 2014 -0.7 2015 -0.1 2016 +1.0 2017 -0.3 2018 +1.5 There is a fairly clear trend in the NAO signal. The NAO was very negative for 4 consecutive summers coinciding with the sun minimum. Common for the summer 2009-12 is that they all had an average NAO value of -1 or lower. Then, NAO has some very fluctuating values from the summer of 2013-18. And the fluctuating trend in NAO occurs despite virtually unchanged SST these years. But during this period we still had 3 summers of 5, where NAOvar negative - but not as low as in 2009-12. Here one can then be admitted to believe that it was ice melting in these summers, which resulted in some cold fresh water, which caused the jet stream to move further south. Here follows the SST cards in July 2009-2018 2009 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.7.16.2009.gif 2010 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2010/anomnight.7.15.2010.gif 2011 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2011/anomnight.7.18.2011.gif 2012 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2012/anomnight.7.16.2012.gif 2013 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2013/anomnight.7.15.2013.gif 2014 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.17.2014.gif 2015 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.16.2015.gif 2016 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.18.2016.gif 2017 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.17.2017.gif 2018 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2018/anomnight.7.16.2018.gif 2019 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.18.2019.gif The last time we had low solar activity, where the geomagnetic activity (solar wind) bound, was in 2009-12. If you notice the development of the SST cards in July, then you clearly see the trend in the North Atlantic. In 2009-12, SST was considerably warmer around Greenland and colder generally in or east of Newfoundland. Then it is remarkable to see how it changed in 2013. Cold and hot water in the North Atlantic changed as the zonal stream intensified as geomagnetic activities increased - and here it would be more natural that cold fresh water was related to the meltdown. which contributed to the negative NAO. Herewith I will illustrate how I believe that the relations between SST and NAO in interaction develops after historical warming in the stratosphere related solar minimum. The recent split of Polar Vortex in January 2019, when the stratosphere and troposphere coupled, had a slow process of slow surface action. The interruption of PV caused the jet currents to beat powerful waves. In several places, very cold and snowfall hit North America and Canada well into the spring. Cold penetrated far south, while the heat on the other side of the jet could flow far north in Europe. Meanwhile, the geomagnetic activity of the sun has dropped to a very low level, allowing galactic cosmic radiation to penetrate into the stratosphere. This strengthens the tropospheric blockage in the northern hemisphere, causing the NAOat dive. This is where it gets interesting. Weak solar energy causes cosmic radiation to improve the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, causing the process to repeat with persistent blocking, including Greenland and the North Atlantic. NAO dived considerably in late April, when the blocking frequency was increased by Greenland. Long before and after, we had a continuous transport of heat flow in the stratosphere via Scandinavian / Eurasian high pressure - and this sustained development of heat flow has maintained an unusually long coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, which may have contributed to the subsequent strengthening of Greenland's blocking by the solar wind. . It is so worth noting that the sea surface temperature (SST) changed rapidly from May to July, after the blocking frequency rose near Greenland. In May, the sea was still considerably colder south of Greenland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.5.16.2019.gif Two months later, it is so noticeably heated in the same area: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.18.2019.gif After persistent impulses of heat flow and stable stratospheric-tropospheric coupling, positive geopotential heights and the blocking frequency have thus increased significantly in Greenland. It has brought warmth to Greenland - and the melting in Greenland and the Arctic was close to the bottom in June. It has made the water warm up a lot. So it is striking that it is not the SST that controls the blocking frequency, but the blocking frequency, which apparently controls the changes in SST - at least in this case. The blockage therefore began before SST changed. It must be the stratosphere (possibly via solar activity) that affects the ocean's turnover and not the other way around. If we go back to the end, we started the solar minimum in 2009, we have a completely identical situation. Part of Polar Vortex, which hit record in January, coincided with the weakening of the solar wind near the bottom. And then it is striking that NAO was negative during the summer with increasing blocking in Greenland. It is again worth noting that since the winter began in 2008/09 the sea was warm east of Newfoundland and cold of South Greenland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.1.5.2009.gif But during the spring and summer after the PV split, the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, which resulted in persistent blockage, maintained and the ocean current changed. The sea south of Greenland and the ice was heated while it was cooled east of Newfoundland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.7.16.2009.gif So the process that is now taking place between the stratospheric troposphere, the blocking frequency, the NAO, the SST and the trend in the solar wind is completely identical to 2009. I am increasingly excited about whether there is anything in this - so now it must be winter soon - especially because we are facing a winter where we want the combination of solar minimum and eastern QBO. This should be able to increase the blocking frequency Before the summer, several forecasts pointed to a positive NAO, but it has gone quite the opposite - and even at the end of June, forecasts continued to predict such despite persistent blocking. Several experts are unaware of the persistent stratospheric troposphere coupling with impulses of heat flux so late in the year - and I think it is the solar activity that matters more than you expect. The models may have difficulty managing how the solar wind affects these layers.

Dette påvirker solens minimale blokeringsfrekvens, havfladetryk og havoverfladetemperatur. Sidste 10 år sommer NAO (værdier for 2009-2018). 2009 -1,0 2010 -1,9 2011 -2,5 2012 -1,4 2013 +2.0 2014 -0.7 2015 -0.1 2016 +1,0 2017 -0,3 2018 +1,5 Der er en ret klar tendens i NAO- signalet. Den NAO var meget negativ for 4 på hinanden følgende somre falder sammen med sol minimum. Fælles for sommeren 2009-12 er, at de alle havde en gennemsnitlig NAO- værdi på -1 eller lavere. Derefter har NAO nogle meget svingende værdier fra sommeren 2013-18. Og den svingende tendens i NAO opstår trods stort set uændret SST i disse år. Men i denne periode havde vi stadig 3 somre af 5, hvor NAOvar negativ - men ikke så lav som i 2009-12. Her kan man derefter indrømmes at tro, at det var issmeltning i disse somre, hvilket resulterede i noget koldt ferskvand, hvilket fik jetstrømmen til at bevæge sig længere mod syd. Her følger SST- kortene i juli 2009-2018 2009 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.7.16.2009.gif 2010 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2010/anomnight.7.15.2010.gif 2011 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2011/anomnight.7.18.2011.gif 2012 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2012/anomnight.7.16.2012.gif 2013 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2013/anomnight.7.15.2013.gif 2014 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.17.2014.gif 2015 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.16.2015.gif 2016 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.18.2016.gif 2017 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.17.2017.gif 2018 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2018/anomnight.7.16.2018.gif 2019 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.18.2019.gif Sidste gang vi havde lav solaktivitet, hvor den geomagnetiske aktivitet (solvind) bundet, var i 2009-12. Hvis du bemærker udviklingen af SST- kortene i juli, så ser du tydeligt tendensen i Nordatlanten. I 2009-12 var SST betydeligt varmere omkring Grønland og koldere generelt i eller øst for Newfoundland. Så er det bemærkelsesværdigt at se, hvordan det ændrede sig i 2013. Koldt og varmt vand i det nordlige Atlanterhav skiftede rundt, da zonalstrømmen intensiverede, da geomagnetiske aktiviteter steg - og her ville det være mere naturligt, at koldt ferskvand var relateret til nedsmeltningen , hvilket bidrog til den negative NAO . Hermed vil jeg illustrere, hvordan jeg tror, at relationerne mellem SST og NAO i interaktion udvikler sig efter historisk opvarmning i stratosfæren relateret solminimum. Den seneste splittelse af Polar Vortex i januar 2019, hvor stratosfæren og troposfæren koblede, havde en langsom proces med langsom overflade handling. Afbrydelsen af PV forårsagede, at jetstrømmene slog kraftige bølger. På flere steder ramte stærkt koldt og snefald Nordamerika og Canada godt ind i foråret. Koldt trængte langt sydpå, mens varmen på den anden side af jetflyet kunne flyde langt nordover i Europa. I mellemtiden er den geomagnetiske aktivitet af solen faldet til et meget lavt niveau, hvilket muliggør galaktisk kosmisk stråling, der trænger ind i stratosfæren. Dette styrker den troposfæriske blokering på den nordlige halvkugle, hvilket forårsager NAOat dykke. Det er her, hvor det bliver interessant. Svag solenergi forårsager kosmisk stråling for at forbedre koblingen mellem stratosfæren og troposfæren, hvilket får processen til at gentage med vedvarende blokering, herunder Grønland og Nordatlanten. NAO dived betydeligt i slutningen af april, da blokeringsfrekvensen blev øget af Grønland. Længe før og efter havde vi en kontinuerlig transport af varmestrøm i stratosfæren via skandinavisk / eurasisk højt tryk - og denne vedvarende udvikling af varmestrøm har opretholdt en usædvanlig lang kobling mellem stratosfæren og troposfæren, hvilket kan have bidraget til den efterfølgende styrkelse af grønlands blokering via solvinden. Det er så værd at bemærke, at havfladetemperaturen ( SST ) ændrede sig hurtigt fra maj til juli, efter at blokeringsfrekvensen steg nær Grønland. I maj var havet stadig betydeligt koldere syd for Grønland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.5.16.2019.gif To måneder senere er det så mærkbart opvarmet i samme område: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.18.2019.gif Efter vedvarende impulser af varmestrøm og stabil stratosfærisk-troposfærerkobling er positive geopotentiale højder og blokeringsfrekvensen således steget kraftigt i Grønland. Det har bragt varme til Grønland - og smelten i Grønland og Arktis lå tæt på bunden i juni. Det har gjort vandet varmt op meget. Så det er slående, at det ikke er SST, der styrer blokeringsfrekvensen, men blokeringsfrekvensen, som tilsyneladende styrer ændringerne i SST - i det mindste i dette tilfælde. Blokeringen begyndte derfor, før SST ændrede sig. Det skal være stratosfæren (muligvis via solaktivitet), som påvirker havets omsætning og ikke omvendt. Hvis vi går tilbage til sidst, startede vi solminimum i 2009, vi har helt identisk situation. En del af Polar Vortex, der ramte rekord i januar, faldt sammen med svækkelsen af solvinden nær bunden. Og så er det slående, at NAO var negativ i løbet af sommeren med stigende blokering på Grønland. Det er igen værd at bemærke, at siden vinteren begyndte i 2008/09 var havet varmt øst for Newfoundland og koldt af Sydgrønland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.1.5.2009.gif Men i løbet af foråret og sommeren efter PV- splittelsen opretholdt koblingen mellem stratosfæren og troposfæren, som resulterede i vedvarende blokering, og det medførte, at oceanstrømmen ændrede sig. Havet syd for Grønland og isen blev opvarmet, mens det blev afkølet øst for Newfoundland: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ sst /anomaly/2009/anomnight.7.16.2009.gif So the process that is now taking place between the stratospheric troposphere, the blocking frequency, the NAO, the SST and the trend in the solar wind is completely identical to 2009. I am increasingly excited about whether there is anything in this - so now it must be winter soon - especially because we are facing a winter where we want the combination of solar minimum and eastern QBO. This should be able to increase the blocking frequency Before the summer, several forecasts pointed to a positive NAO, but it has gone quite the opposite - and even at the end of June, forecasts continued to predict such despite persistent blocking. Several experts are unaware of the persistent stratospheric troposphere coupling with impulses of heat flux so late in the year - and I think it is the solar activity that matters more than you expect. The models may have difficulty managing how the solar wind affects these layers.

It will be interesting to see if unusually low solar activity has an impact on the coming winter. Geomagnetic Activity (AP Index) is very low for 2018, which should be extremely well correlated with the winter's NAO: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11200-014-0508-z And this should undoubtedly be linked with the stratosphere. The question is whether this is related to the shift to negative NAO in late October and November, when pressure differentials in South Greenland are reduced. It is very exciting to follow the development as we have moved into the sun minimum.

Further displacement and weakening of Polar Vortex in both GFS-ENS and EC-ENS. Recent forecasts dislocate PV completely across Baffin and America in mid January. In addition, there are significant dives in AO 10-15. January. Hope for the winter lives to that extent. Trends also look extremely promising in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies from both EC-ENS and GFS-ENS. Rising pressure anomaly over Scandi and later Arctic and Greenland from January 10th and onwards: http://www.meteociel.fr/.../2018010100/EDH101-240.GIF... http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-5-240.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-7-300.png

Further displacement and weakening of Polar Vortex in both GFS-ENS and EC-ENS. Recent forecasts dislocate PV completely across Baffin and America in mid January. In addition, there are significant dives in AO 10-15. January. Hope for the winter lives to that extent. Trends also look extremely promising in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies from both EC-ENS and GFS-ENS. Rising pressure anomaly over Scandi and later Arctic and Greenland from January 10th and onwards: http://www.meteociel.fr/.../2018010100/EDH101-240.GIF... http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-5-240.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-7-300.png