BlazeStorm

Wish these model outputs would stop flirting with us... ECMWF looking promising though!

That second week of December is beginning to look interesting! Hope we don't find ourselves back at square one again, some great blocking potential.

When it comes to blocking potential, it seems to be the ECM and UKMO that pick up on the signals first, then the GFS jumps on board. This time it appears to be somewhat the opposite, and so I lack confidence that we will see any real cold before the second week of December. Still hopeful though!

GEFS control gets messy, pushing Atlantic LP north towards Greenland. HP building over Scandinavia suggests an Easterly (yes I'm cherry picking!!)

More like Narnia? Some of these charts are getting a little ridiculous now, feels like we're staring down the barrel of the gun at something quite impressive! Will be interesting to see what GFS spits out soon...

Caked in snow!

GEFS P4 looking a bit wild!

Quoting on the chart, whether it verifies or not is another matter. It's refreshing to see ridiculous possibilities so early on!

If that high shunted a little further SW there would problems for Europe

Looking cold in Ireland tonight

Yes, might well be worth investing in a couple of Kayaks. Noah's arc scenes!

The amount of precipitation across the country on the GFS this evening is a little apocalyptic. Beginning this Saturday all the way through to the end of the run. Here comes autumn! Not so sure what the last 2 months were...

Since we're cherry picking some rather lovely charts, anyone down for a northerly blast beginning of September?

BBC forecast showing quite an organised band of rain/sleet/snow hitting between Leeds and York at 1pm tomorrow, with potential for some wintry showers prior. Don't expect any accumulations, but after last night anything could happen!

Has anyone else noticed the last few BBC forecasts (on TV and online)? It shows the precipitation animation until 3pm (sometimes 5pm) today, then cuts out and begins Wednesday morning. Are they unaware of what the weather will do tonight? Or is it too tough to track all those showers?

Don't understand why everyone is writing it off? Think we have a lot of grumpy members first thing in the morning... Genuinely believe we will meet faces with this easterly within the next 7 days. Taking its time, and one thing's for sure, it doesn't look like that scandi high's going anywhere any time soon. Think it's brave to call anything beyond the 72hr mark when the models struggle to cope with the block. Which is clearly evident, seeing some members acknowledge the spread. So it will remain game on for much of this week. I like where this is going. Blaaazestorm

ECM 12z Scandi high not a millions miles away. ... Later evolving into an easterly. Perhaps some early signs. Blaazestorm EDIT: The way that ECM ends looks so familiar...

Here is my two cents. (Sorry, pence) There is some support for the Scandinavian high to temporarily retreat east (into Russia) Monday-Wednesday, before re-amplifying in the west on Thursday. -I'll use the UKMO as an example here, but it's also being hinted at by the GEM, ECM, and I don't expect it to take long for the GFS to follow the trend. Yes, clearly the potential for the Atlantic to take hold thereafter. But easterlies can come out of the blue in a very short space of time, and the models are renowned for dismissing such blocking features. Not to say I firmly believe this will happen. There's just a chance. I'll follow the models until Tuesday evening before making any further judgements! Anyway, the fact there is a Scandinavian high knocking about gives me hope for this winter's future, especially if it's happy enough to hang around up there. -And to those using this thread as the moans, ramps and banter thread. Please, this is not a social media page. Refrain from saying anything on this thread unless it is intentionally informative and analytical. It really is tiresome reading through pages and pages, only to find a small handful of genuinely interesting posts. BlaaazeStorm

I'm more intrigued by your battery status. Living life on the edge... and so is the weather. Anything can happen after Monday! Minor upgrades this morning.

Please stick to the models. I'm bored of reading through all of the nonsense, it wastes my time, other member's time and kills this thread. Bugger off to the other thread.

GFS showing the storm that's currently hammering the East coast of the US getting blocked and shunted north. Would expect a storm of this magnitude to have some huge influence on our side of the pond. If this is blocked any further (which is plausible) then it will allow heights to build north and north east of the UK. The 'Beasterly' is still on guys. EDIT: All up in the air beyond this point.

Yikes

Weeks? Ambitious. The signs were there, but the models kept denying the longevity of the cold over and over.

ECMWF is very interesting. I understand it isn't the go to, but I believe these are early signs. Denies the atlantic entirely, and develops what looks like a merging Scandi and Greenland high? Have a feeling a prolonged cold spell could follow after this weekend. Recall seeing the models countlessly deny the intense cold we experiend in 2010/2011, which left rivers and lakes up here in North Yorkshire totally frozen over. Some exciting model watching these next few days.