[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Concerning gfs this morning in terms of wind speeds blizzards up north aswell 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Exactly. Even if the low drops down over us it would be rain because there would be a great big warm sector involved. They just look like bog standard winter charts to me A very brief northerly, a ton of cold rain and likely rinse and repeat.

So far away that it got almost zero chance of verifying anyway.

People are looking at the bigger picture. The PV has moved away from greenland which would allow a good chance for cold further on

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GEM would lock the cold Weather into Christmas with easterly winds

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the East and possible more substantially the South East look good for some snow on Friday according to the UKV - showers could spread further in land too. According to this some places in the SE could get 12 hours of decent snow although it’ll only take a minor shift and once again it’ll all change !!  

 

Supposedly none would stick though!! What is impressive is the max temps on the weekend - it’s going to be v cold

Those are yesterday's charts mate 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Icon first out and it's a stunner  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Ecm is fine! Learn how to read charts or don't comment 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Close cigar for you maybe. 

A white Christmas for many further North. 

Can we please stop the England centric bias on here please.

 

It's not a regional thread shouldn't be any bias at all. My comments on runs will be for the whole of the uk 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

12z vs 18z the low is more flat because the pressure is higher on it. Good move from 18z imo if we can get further movement on the high on 0z then it's game on

Should note it will likely blow up on further frames. We need more sustained pressure but as I said it's a move in the right direction 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

high much closer to Iceland. Not perfect but much better compared to 12z. Hopefully we can get enough forcing on the low 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Just now, MKN said:

The stronger heights need to be around Iceland to force the cold further south. 

The high is better positioned if you ask me on 18z small differences make a big difference for us. 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Stronger block into Greenland on 18z...

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

It's called variation of the theme. The moaning in here whenever we get a slightly different run is ridiculous it miss leads the people in here who are here to learn. The latest gfs dosen't take much longer than 18z to get the bitter cold air in. It just does it in a slightly different way. We have a good Greenland high let's calm down and have some patience!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

GEM similar to icon with freezing conditions for Wednesday. If we could delay the arrival with the low a little bit more on GEM we would see mid minus teens 850hpas entering the east. The breakdown looks to be around Thursday ish altho I think we might manage couple more days extra than that away from the far SW

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Snowman. said:

It's mainly to avoid an increase in expectations.

40CM is pretty extreme. A modest 15cm with perhaps more in certain spots.

I do agree but with Sundays event delivering 10 to 15cm in parts of EA then comes alone the convective constant snow showers which should add a lot more to it we could be talking 30cm in places. A lot of things have to come into place first so yes I think it's best to keep exspectations low but have an open mind. I certainly would be very happy man if I lived on coastal EA rn

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Didn't post this as I felt it was OTT.

Has the low further west so it takes longer to clear. It's certainly a possible scenario 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

ICON snow depth.

That's current snow depths. here is snow depths for the whole run 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

The low is a little bit futher north aswell so has a little more influence across the far south. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

More of a direct easterly on 0z gfs rather than a NE tilt so uppers aren't so cold down south but cold enough for snow 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Wednesday would be freezing across the whole country! Slack easterly winds with widespread -10 uppers brrr!! 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Low a lot more south on the latest icon allowing the easterly to continue upgrade! Good start 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Classic 18z upgrade on the ensembles a large cluster now going below -10 at 850hpa

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Very good GEM! best run for the south. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

GFS trying to go for a Scandi High but a bit too far south and not a good orientation bringing in milder air from the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Hardly mild. South might be about to see its coldest uppers the whole run 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Very good run this easterlys for almost the whole country!! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Op is no outlier around two ensembles get -10 uppers into London at this stage down from like 10+ 0z yesterday morning.