[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Mean got down to -2.5 uppers and now is rising

Declining now let's see how far... 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Mean got down to -2.5 uppers and now is rising

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Gfs looks worse than 18z the cold air doesn't even reach Scotland with the low approaching from the south again 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Icon takes its time but gets there in the end. Good to see its not following the gfs 18z route 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Anouther upgrade on the mean gets the uppers down to -9 now in London 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Its an absolute snow fest for the snowstarved surely you can't knock this run fella, 20cms yes please! 2-3 days of continuous snow reminds me of 2010!

Med air was starting to mix in that's all then just in time the wind turns more favourable and puts us into the freezer. This run might even beat 18z in terms of how long the proper cold air sticks around. Brilliant run! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

Ha! As I post this the wind direction begins to turn more favourable. Fine margins! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Gfs mean has a max of 1.6c on the 7th in London that's very good for an ensemble mean! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Gfs op above the mean again 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Brilliant UKMO this morning the beast is knocking

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Some will be happy to know the mean brings the colder air in quicker than the op 

[UKV Charts Now Available]

any news on when UKV 15z will be out? 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Icon not as deep with the low. I think I am right in thinking this is better. Please correct me if I'm wrong 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Ecm just started. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The colder solutions do seem to reappear after the 21st but we could do without any kind of delay.

 

The mean never even reaches -5. The op is clearly an outlier tho 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Ensembles so far for London. Not the change we wanted this morning. Hopefully ecm will stick to its guns 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

@Paulany idea when gfsp will start? 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

From what I've seen gfs pushes the cold air out of southern England very quickly. It's a good run for Northern Ireland Scotland and Northern England tho. It's hard to tell from the US site tho so could be wrong 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

GEM also cutting the low off good news! 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Very good ukmo it manages to cut the low off 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Is gfs delayed? I thought it started at half 3

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Icon doesn't manage to cut the low off not a great start to 12z 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Wow! Look at that greeny high on gfs para. Cold air surging into the UK aswell.

little to west based but a lot better than its previous runs. 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

That's got to be one of the best runs this season?! SSW really likes teasing us