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Paul33

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Posts posted by Paul33

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Martz86 said:

    It would be nice to have a model group just for those that know what their talking about, reading through this one is very confusing, shame really as I quite like reading the knowledgeable posts but it's becoming tedious filtering through it all. 

    Blank pages will never sell 😉 !!!

    • Like 4

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12 hours ago, davehsug said:

    In the meantime, what looked like a decent week next week, is quickly slipping down the toilet, especially away from the South & East.

    I take it by "decent" then, like most of the country, you mean cool, comfortable nights, no more heatwaves ...... and lots of rain ?

    • Like 5

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    I think I’m about to blow! Iv just scanned through about 6 pages of waffle on here after work I honestly don’t no whether I’m coming or going tbh! One minute is oh it’s dyer next one is quite snowy then easterly setting up quite honestly I’m lost right now

    Blue Noses are easily confused but what's a Dyer ? I have visions of Danny Dyer in front of a weather map, swearing about cold fronts !

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I love Frosty's unerring optimism! But I think one look at this tells it all:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

    No     weather warning for ice or snow anywhere. That tells you all you need to know - nothing to see here folks. It'll be a slushy drizzle fest for a bit, and that's about it. The last snow event a few weeks ago had warnings at least. Best pin our hopes on a late winter spectacular, because our time for winter 16/17 is just about up now.

    All this Winter has demonstrated to me is that (a) all these models try their best to forecast ahead but frankly they haven't a hope in hell of knowing what Mother Nature is going to do and (b) our interpretation of the models simply adds a further layer of guesswork to it all.

    I love seeing the models and getting excited at reading the model interpretations (sometimes !) but really - and no disrespect intended - we really haven't got a clue what the weather is going to do beyond 3-4 days !!!

     

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

    Showing people the accurate picture is wrong? If people are misunderstanding the charts then pointing it out is stopping them having false hopes. I know it's human nature to want to believe the 'best' outcome but it isn't helpful if people want to read the charts properly in the long run. 

    One useful way is to go through a number of the shorter term models (WRF, Hirlam,. Arpege, NMM) and see what each is saying. They will also give a nice colour coded precipitation type chart, red for snow and blue for rain. All available on Meteociel.

    I think it isn't the content of what you post but the tone of your comments ..... no need for it IMHO !!!

    • Like 9

    South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul33

    The more intense snow is still up over the Borders area and that may offer more hope as it comes down this evening in colder temperatures. The current snow is turning back to sleet at Nottingham and beyond so best hope is from later this evening. Temperatures above Nottingham currently around 1c whereas more like 4c/5c around London.

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    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I'm confused.  Geordiesnow says this run is less amplified yet Ali1977 says we have a Greenland High? ??

    Unfortunately the title "Model Discussion Thread" is a bit misleading to those of us who observe and try to learn. There are obviously various different models and various different ensembles out there such that those on here with a bias - for whatever reason - towards ramping mild or ramping cold will always find output from somewhere that appears to back his or her case.

    Its frustrating but its entertaining and at times like this, it just underlines that no matter what your chosen model says, anything can happen !!!

    • Like 10

    Need accurate Min/Max digital weather station

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted · Edited by Paul33

    Santa very kindly brought me a Technoline WS9130-IT which I love to bits except for one real big annoyance. The max/min readings are rounded to the nearest degree and not very accurately either ..... if temperature moves up to 13.1C the max rounds up to 14C !!!

    I need a station that records a max of 13.1C as 13.1C and not 13C or 14C ...... and I don't want to pay much as I'm now in the post-Christmas poverty period !

    Any suggestions would be gratefully received !

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If we are here to look at the models then surely we have the right to question the met office's analysis of those models. It is brilliant to have a professional forecaster on here but I don't think that takes our rights away to post a contrary view. This is a forum after all, if you don't want a discussion maybe we should just post the met office forecast with a warning not to discuss as it is insulting to the pros on here.

     

    ^ ^ ^ ^ THIS ^ ^ ^ ^

    • Like 3
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