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Day_9

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    1962/63 is the only year in living memory that had oscillating Northern Heights between Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia. It is possible for a pattern to set up that self sustains itself but it’s the only year that’s done that for a reason! 
     

    Many similarities with the Canadian warming, El Niño/ East QBO combination!

    im not saying this is happening now btw 😂😂😂 that is IMPOSSIBLE to predict but id love to see it happen just from a learning perspective to see how a year like that would set up!

    There are three sliding channel lows in 3 days.  If (and at this range it is highly improbable) but if something like that came off. …… a great example of a COBRA run

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

    ""Slider alert"

    gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.4534e5072eca4a636860426811264525.pnggfseuw-16-282.thumb.png.04c6e76938287c5debe91c5f3d716ff8.png

    and then some...

    gfseuw-0-282.thumb.png.a6734832abfb90ab71f4e8769aaf9f0c.pnggfseuw-1-288.thumb.png.3274a5b03f64c0ae29711afba9d4af40.png


     Sublime synoptics this year, although until its +72 max, I would discount any snow depth or snow charts.  Although, going on the above and getting in a completely nimby comment - S Wales gets an absolute pummelling next weekend! 😜
     

    But it’s just a chart, a great deal can change in a week.  I have lost count of the number of crushing disappointments for coldies on here.  It’s probably the norm, so to see such consistent almost universal key signals from all models then we could be in for a memorable one - an exception so enjoy watching it unfold, and if it goes pear shaped, then also marvel at the superiority of mother nature. We like to think we know what goes on, but really we haven’t got much of a clue.

     

    Either way a big one is long overdue 2010 and then, very briefly, early March 2023 are all I can say we really had on the S Wales coast and so far in terms of model outputs it starting to look magic!

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Your Lordship I would duck if I were you,cause there's gonna be alot of flying debris coming your way after a statement like that! Euro High should be a banned phrase in here just like the Bartlett.

    Amazing output lads and lasses...cold pretty much locked in on some output with that big risk of snow on ecm which is a route I've been thinking possible for a few days! We need that moisture to hit the cold air for huge snowfall amounts...we need it to grind to a halt just like the good old days in the 80s.

    1pm news...heavy snow causing chaos in the SW...

    6pm news..that snow as now reached the Midlands and will be dumping many inches.

    Next day news..The snow as now reached the North and they're being pummeled...but guess what it's now about to be pushed south again and we Start the process all over again! I maybe still dreaming but this scenario remains on the table. 

    This Xmas run up could be special.. keep the faith.

    I think it’s important to realise that many people will come to grave harm this winter.  These synoptics spell black outs amid an energy and cost of living crisis.  My heart goes out to out most vulnerable over the next few weeks.

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, LRD said:

    I'm not talking about exactly how the 12z ECM FI run looks specifically. I'm talking in general terms that things seem to be trending less and less away from longer term cold. Not a clear trend as yet but things are slowly moving in a less cold direction I feel.

    No, there has been consistent output now forecasting a week/10 day long snap.

     Look at the ensembles.  Absolute consensus.  Anything after that timeframe is always spaghetti whatever the model…….. enjoy the next week or so if cold is your thing.  It is entirely conceivable that it becomes entrenched.  

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Text

    • Like 11

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Very poor (for cold) ECM days 8 and 9

    Day 9. -NAO becoming west-based

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Face, Person, Head, Diagram

    As far as the European mainland is concerned, it shows something similar to the UKMO at 168 except we get an extra day's grace on ECM

    Having said that there are no certainties that this is right. Just feel that things might be trending away from longer term cold. It could trend back of course

    One run doth not a trend make.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    How it starts and how it ends (at D10 anyway).

     

    it was like this 2 years ago if you remember.  Ridiculously synoptics but always at or beyond D10 and the breakdown in here when it all ended was  spectacular.  
     

    yes it could easily go pear shaped but this one feels unflinching.

     Just be aware though that for everyone clapping their hands in glee, there will be many millions for whom this will not mean good news.  Dazzling output, terrifying consequences at the moment for many.

    E3637D58-432C-40F2-A52D-9DAD61121F68.png

    BA78E2D6-ED93-42C2-9A5E-977DF87F090E.png

    • Like 3

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Laurence said:

    Well I've been around since all this internet weather malarkey started, I watch the forums every autumn onwards and the same reoccurring  scenario of the models changing their out put right at the end repeats itself, and people in my view are right in getting angry and annoyed.
    However the real culprit is the very models themselves and the data fed into them. Some people act as if the models  create the weather with remarks like  "the gfs is back on board again " . No for me the heart of the problem is the models ; they are just not up to it . I myself despite  what I'm saying here, was by yesterday sucked into the a xmas day start of a cold spell and  no way could all the main models be in such agreement  and then all move to a less favourable scenario  overnight with only six days to go There is still time to go but we all know how this usually ends, So for me the models in situations like this have very little value beyond two to three days. Remember before the internet and computer modelling? We got about a three day warning from UKMO via BBC television - none of this being totally absorbed and a slave to the model outputs for several weeks at a time.

    Best post on here all winter.  

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Stunning synoptics.  Quite stunning, but then again…: aren’t they always?  The reason this forum works is the thrill of the chase.:  last year promised so much and delivered so little.  As did the year before….. we really do need to bear in mind that anything beyond T120 is really fantasy island.  
     

    great trending signals tho’

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