parrotingfantasist
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Posts posted by parrotingfantasist
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Upgrade from the near term Arpege, has the Tuesday front turning to snow much earlier than its 6Z predecessor so more Western parts are in the ball-game.
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It was inevitable there was going to be a let down. The MOD thread turned into a mess, full of people saying this'll be a 2010, or 2012. Truth is, it never was and one run would never prove that. Yet again another let down for a cold spell if anything. (This was never going to be a 2010 ever)
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Trying not to create a running commentary, but I can see how its going already.
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Crucial 18Z coming out. Already differences
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Rather than snow its depression which is settling in the MOD thread. I truly worry for those peoples health if this 18Z continues the trend.
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I cant get access to the BBC forecast because its the new Meteogroup website and they don't have it
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10 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:
O dear. The wheels are coming off at a rapid rate in the mod thread. ECM backtracking to gfs. This all started with last nights gfs. Everybody laughs at the pub run but that’s twice in 4 weeks it began the downgrades. Maybe we should take more note of it. Still looking ok for us but any more downgrades this will be a bust I’m afraid. .
I think its just the models being all over the place. One bad run, everybody loses it. SSW and this MJO thing is probably making the models go up and down (I'm incredibly unknowledgeable but I hear those two phrases flying around the place).
Was never really jumping around excited for this cold spell anyway. I don't see the easterly giving us the cold enough uppers and I don't see the NWly giving us the cold enough ground temperatures but I am most likely wrong on both accounts lmao
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5 hours ago, Neiller22 said:
Not for the east it didnt. The NW/W /N got a lot of snow during January in that wee spell but us in the east got very very little and the evening when the NW/W/N all got 5 hrs of snow us in the east got heavy rain so it didnt exactly revert back to what it had initially showed but i do take your point.
Alot of the NW not got much if any at all. Showers were just sleety hail, east of Derry you'd be talking.
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Great 12z. Really astonishes me though how west and east are both so cold! With east you are forgiven but the west... -10 uppers? Golly!
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2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:
I can't tell you my hatred for showers so far this Winter lol. Lets hope the front is actually snow though in the first place 6z and 0z not so keen but 18z said yes.
Meteogroup latched on though for Tuesday
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1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:
Havnt looked at models this morn. Is Tuesday prolonged snow or just showers if it happens?
I can't tell you my hatred for showers so far this Winter lol. Lets hope the front is actually snow though in the first place 6z and 0z not so keen but 18z said yes.
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We need the easterly to bring colder uppers more to the W so fronts are snow. Another showerfest and I'll be pulling my hair out.
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Hmm. Looks very knife edge for us early game NI. Easterly cold might not reach us
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1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:
It is gradually stalling further west each run which benefits us. Of course it could be rain but it wouldn’t take much adjusting for it to be a snow event. One to watch.
Looks as if it might be sleety at first then snow as it progresses. Is one to watch
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1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:
Forget that I quoted that chart. Just generally talking about -8 uppers meaning marginal conditions. Not guaranteed a widespread snow event
Is that how it is? You say that reliable forecasters told you of a model shift (Doesn't say the names) and you've been mild ramping in the face of unbelievable odds. What is the goal? If you are right I will eat my trousers ...-
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You'll have to excuse my pessimism but it does look like that front might be rain when it collides with the cold air. Ofcourse only semi reliable
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Another easterly floats away, signs of a northerly gone. Another NWly looks ugh
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So I take it BBC will nolonger be using MOGREPS in any forecasts and the week ahead ones too?
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Not expecting much in the NW after the last north westerly. If little came then god knows what comes now! High ground will surely do well. Eyes on February
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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
More glued to Arpege this evening rather than GFS.