[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

15 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I think it might be on the cold side of the ENS , don’t you ?  

Maybe a touch 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

This is the definition of a COBRA meeting 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

the pattern is in retrograde

Could be heading for the mother of all fantasy lands here ...

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 I think we need to get the UKMO onside . Early shortwave drama is unlikely that’s not the current issue as you’d see me moaning about it !

The UKMO has at least improved but I’m still mystified given the ECM mean is so close to the op how the former is still dragging its heels.

Lets hope the UKMO ditch their raw output and we see them modify that in the fax charts because that would suggest they think it’s gone rogue !

 

The milder side of the mogreps? , like the ecm was doing earlier this week with its own ensembles perhaps ?

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

7 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Well this would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons

Yep , frozen together in the same ice cube 

unbelievable temp values ! Stunner 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

We might have to wait until a little longer before we MAY feel it's full impact. 

Wednesday instead of Tuesday ? 

[SSW Related Cold Spell - It's here]

2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

I think Met Office is saying the cold WILL come at some point and if not next week, then by the end of Feb, as in "Winter's not over folks"

Is MOGREPS the Mets ensemble ? Like the GEFS for example?

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

The GFS has form recently at ‘busts’ in regards to verifications ? 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

A mere 45 mins ago posters were giving winter the last rights

then ecm bursts in the room with a defibillator 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Don’t even know what to say 

 

theres definitely another ‘ FLIP’ coming this morning ,

it will be when @nick sussex wakes up and flips out 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Never mind trying to get two models to converge , we can’t get two posters to agree on the same output .. doomed we are ! 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

After today’s GEM .... ? 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

3 minutes ago, Herefordweather said:

I’m expecting a stonking run from the GFS. Only to be brought back down to earth by the ECM later on.

The Met Office wording certainly more positive mind.

With that wording I’m expecting Winterfell from the  UKMO in the days to come 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

A snowy Calcutta Cup @Catacol ? 

what I find fascinating is the OP’s constantly veering to the mild of their ensemble , but their mean having none of this , there just has to be a jaw dropper of an op run coming , really interested if this forecast -NAO happens , it’s been elusive to going  negative for the entire winter ! And with Easter coming early this year ... frozen bunny anyone ? 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Down down deeper and down 

get down , deeper and down 

I’m partial to a bit Quo

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

For my area at least , the op goes on a rogue quest for a bit  , even the control abandons it , the ‘pub run’ would just have to pick a perb below the mean and then it’s euphoria in here again later 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

@Mucka indeed ! Quite a dive by the mean , wasn’t expecting that 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

The very kind Mr Fergusson just informed me of tonight’s ECM monthly output ... interest a plenty 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

I thought the Strat was supposed to have the meltdown not the ECM 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I think the ECM has this correct, big shift in the ensembles overnight towards the ECM like solution... 

From days 6 into 7 the ECM is barely part of its own ensemble 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

My goodness ! I nearly choked on my smoked haddock when I seen @Tamara ‘Ramping’ a GFS run ?, are the stars aligning ? Are we on the cusp ? Will Tamara’s head be right all along ! Tune in next time on ... The Northen Hemisphere’s got *potential* impending talent !!! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

5 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Heads up full time posters!!

Can you PLEASE get your phones on charge as this has the potential (lol) to be the most interesting winter weather for many a year and your updates are very much appreciated and us lurkers/ part time posters don’t want to miss a trick..cheers!! 

That GFS was sublime the UKMET not to shabby. Would be nice if ECM sorted itself out in half hour and gives us another That ECM.

MNR

If the control run verified with its -15 uppers then we’d have no power and four foot snow drifts  and would have to get a hamster in a wheel to charge our phones !! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think that we can now say that the ECM is starting to reel in. Let's hope that trend continues.

The 00z run played out eerily close the the METO Text forecast ! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Surly this forecast is a GFS over reaction ? 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

@That ECM

Yes very much so. I was going to post many members now going for an Easterly flow shortly after mid month.

Let's hope this is the start of the models sniffing out the beast.

Especially the control run in FL , can’t post an image at the moment but it’s eye candy !