[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

You are not a voice to be ignored John, how do you see this all panning out and when would you expect the "heat up" to occur ? 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the ecm op cold pool is currently detaching itself from the n Siberian vortex as it begins its ten day journey to w Europe. If only we knew what was written on its ticket as a final destination ........

It will be interesting to track temps across the relevant cities across Europe as it makes progress. 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

if we have -11/-12/-13 air with low heights then its a snow maker !! 

heights below 540 DAM or better

ECM 240 for london has -15c + 530 Heights & 515 DAM ( approx ) = huge snow showers

Many thanks all sounds good to me. 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember the rough lapse rates from 850 temps at this time of year are +11/+12 so on day 10 of ECM looking at -2/-3 maxima in heavy snow showers !!!

Seeing comments Steve saying the models show a dry easterly. What are your expectations with regards how precipitation would form in this set up ? instability caused as the cold air crosses the north sea ? Re the 1987 event, I seem to recall there being a big low in Europe which led to 2 feet of snow where I live (below sea level).     

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

36 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A locked in blocking scenario..

And deep cold into eurasia-nw europe!!!

Edit; an'out of date below chart...but echos very much the likely prognosis.

Thanks tight isobar. Very limited understanding of all this unfortunately but could we basically expect ground temps of something around 3 degrees colder than average for this time of year if the chart verifies ?

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

24 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ignore my comment on MJO phase 7 because I hadnt filtered it properly... but the gist of the Nina February composite lagged by 1 month into March suggests a continental air flow which would be cold. However the composite is a lot less useful than it should be because of my duff filtering.... :-(

Thanks Catacol I've a lot to learn,not least on the terminology,but when people like yourself get interested then I sit up and take notice.  

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

@Glacier Point And just for a bit more fun.... I took out the medium Nina years (our Nina is a curious mix... but definitely more weak than medium) and ran the March composite again for months following a weak Nina phase 7 February.

Gulp. With our projected SSW pattern imprinted on top? Bye bye Spring.

In layman's terms, can you relay what this is indicating please.