Runcible Spoon

They have to caveat somehow. Some places are bound to see a bit of rain/sleet during this period.

That's an upgrade.... Icon definitely the party pooper this afternoon so far, but entropy still very prominent across all the models. FI about 96 hrs at the mo. I propose a vote of no confidence in the Icon and demand all models come back to this forum on Monday with a better deal we will all be able to accept. Still think no single model has got the next week accurately modelled, more chopping and changing ahead no doubt, but my belief is that a blended solution. A cold spell looks nailed on, but nothing very notable down south in the next week showing - yet.

No opinion yet from Mr Murr. In essence, the models still show a multitude of possibilities for this weekend in terms of where will get rain/sleet/snow. Could well be a wintry mix. Interesting ECM coming up in terms of direction of travel. Rollercoaster continues...

Not feeling the love from the models (yet) in terms of much lying snow imminent apart from the northern elevations and prone spots. The ground is not that cold and we need a few solid frosts over a few consecutive nights. This thread does get contradictory but I guess that is down to human, rather than model bias in many cases. To me, looking at all current model output, the direction of travel is good but more of a rollercoaster than a log flume drop. What a week coming up of political theatre and model drama. Plenty of uncertainties with both. Nothing will be agreed until everything is agreed......... 18Z's coming out soon and I think we need to keep the ICON interest alive, as it did well last March with its modelling of the cold/snow as I remember.

Will be very interesting to see how the models evolve as we get closer to next Monday. The charts in recent days have shown perfection for cold and some for snow in addition. Surely there will be some sort of watering down? Cold is nailed on, now just a case of how cold. Snow - bound to be plenty about, but frontal rather just showers would be ideal. GFS has shown to deliver the former - have the others? Already had 12 inches here in Hereford back on Dec 9th which was incredible. Unlikely to see that amount this time around but any that falls will not disappear, even it melts in the sun and refreezes!

That puts us bang smack in the firing line for that deep cold. It feels flipping freezing out today, but next week is gonna be almost of the chart - literally.

Ice days less than a week away according to GFS. On another note, around 170 pages in less than a week, got to be a record!