Stav
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Posts posted by Stav
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18 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Battle ground snow is absolutely terrible for most in the south as it’s always rain.
Yes, it is disappointing when it happens. Oh for a 2010 scenario. Despite the excitement here, looking at the charts and the comments from respected contributors there is quite a lot of doubt as to what the south will get.
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12 minutes ago, MJB said:
Really ??
Here are the noon temperatures from Gatwick from the 7th to the 20th: 0, -2, 1, -1, -5, -7, -7, -3, -2, -1, -3, -3, -3, -1
Memories fade in time eh ?
I remember walking back one night from my local pub in Sussex when there was a record low of -13 C during that spell. Even the malt whisky didn't keep me warm.
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I think I coped better with the 40C heatwave last year than with this, and I guess that was because the air was very dry with that. I agree with other posters that the humidity is a killer. It is always there - day and night, and 32C days become unbrearable.
I can't believe anyone actually like this.
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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
As far as I can see, it nearly did:
This is, I believe the coldest chart in living memory, but someone will no doubt correct me.
Don’t think it will happen in the next 2 weeks!
Came reasonably close in 2018 BFTE though:
I remember walking home from the pub in what I believe was the coldest minimum Hove ever had, -13C. That was cold.
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3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Sobering chart.. despite the eye candy synoptic pattern and uppers between -5 and -10 we find ourselves with highs around 4 and 5 and struggling to gey below 0 overnight if at all.. why is that? If its not time of year?
Yes, it could be very disappointing after all the expectation, We need those surface temps down a couple of degrees by day and night.
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I would like to ask, based on what we are seeing now on the models, what is the risk of this being just two days of cold with some blowing snow, and then all gone as temperatures rise?
I am sure a lot of us would be happy if the winter can end with laying snow and freezing temperatures for a few days, but it looks on the edge to me.
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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Very funny !
The cold can stay away from here . Cold set ups in the UK often deliver lovely warm weather down here so that way UK coldies win and I win down here .
As you know I’m an ardent coldie when in the UK but here in Cyprus warm, sunny and dry is my hope.
Off topic but I am sure you have been skiing at Troodos. I remember sliding all over untreated roads there in sub-zero temperatures one April. I have Greek Cypriot roots.
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19 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Depends on the type of frontal snowfall, most historic snowfalls are from Atlantic influenced systems
Theres a few different types of frontal events:
Frontal events that move east and NE/E winds follow in behind, one where a system moves up from the SW into cold air and displaces the cold totally but gives a few hours of transient snow, and then there’s the stalling low running into cold air and failing, once again though this can result in a dumping followed by a rapid drop in temps.
Unless you like cold and dry, a true snowy easterly normally starts with some kind of Atlantic influence.
Or the usual happens and the ‘channel low’ eventually tracks somewhere into the bay of biscay
What about a Baltic low with frontal snow blowing in on an Easterly? I am sure I remember that once in my life. Surely that is a low risk snow event, rather than Atlantic sourced.
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2 hours ago, sheikhy said:
Gfs hot all the way through to the end of next week for england and wales!!and ukmo well that looks even hotter!!!!this really is quite something this year!!!imagine if the autumn/winter is just dry cold with plenty of harsh frosts
!!!!
Well, if it stays dry some areas (including where I live) will be in real trouble.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Not wanting to detail this thread and better to go in drought thread, but statements are always best backed up with statistics. Anyone share previous very dry 6 and 12 month periods for comparison. I suspect the last 6 month equal dry spell was March to August 95. That was exceptionally dry. All depends on how you define exceptional.. if you mean a one off.. let's see what the stats say...
Well it seems pretty exceptional according to the Met Office just a while ago: "England had its driest July since 1935, with parts having the least rainfall on record, the Met Office has said.
Driest July in England since 1935 - Met Office
WWW.BBC.CO.UKParts of England saw the driest July on record with serious impacts on farmland and wildfire.-
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25 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Yes more good news- the GFS has form for picking up hot spells a long way out too.
Deep into FI it gets seriously hot again on this run.
I have a strong feeling that we're not done with very hot conditions this summer.
That is probably correct, but we desperately need some rain in the East. It is starting to look like a semi-desert around here.
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25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
In all honesty I wouldn't be too concerned...your in a favourable location and I think you will receive a fair amount of settled and warm conditions..Your a long way south of any Low pressure systems that may occasionally get anchored to the North and North West!
Fingers crossed you get a decent 6 weeks.
I know you are West Midlands, Matt, and I am East, but the lawns here look more parched and brown than I have ever seen them Plants are starting to die. I would gladly trade a few nice days for some rain.
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I am dreading the next few days, living in Peterborough, right in the place forecast to be hottest. I was considering getting a train to Newcastle or Edinburgh today and working from a hotel there for the next two days, as I work from home, but the forecast temperature differential was not enough to make it worthwhile.
I have a portable air conditioner in my study but it is so noisy.
I cant believe some of the people on the model thread actually looking forward to this. Lets hope we get revenge in winter, if we can survive the next few days.
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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:
It's more factory workers foundry workers. For me. No way can they work in that heat. Also add construction to that list
In Bahrain construction (all workers Indian) is meant to stop when the temperature exceeds 45C. The official figure never exceeds 45C, and there are deaths.
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16 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
So what was the point in that reply when I'd already made that very point that he meant Wednesday not Tuesday?
I'm downcast because this is going to be godawful.
I've lived in a place where temps were 40C and that was with aircon inside. It's hideous.
#metoo
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21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It's a weather forum, people like extremes.. I don't know how many times people need to be reminded of this?! No amount of ramping or telling people they're irresponsible is going to change the weather.
Yes, I agree but by the same token is it unreasonable to put forward the view that one can be a weather enthusiast without losing sight of the fact caring about fellow people's safety should trump that when it gets to extremes? It is part of being a decent human being, isn't it?
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5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
Difference in winter is everything is on such a knife edge. If it gets watered-down in winter from -1c to 2c, you end up with cold rain and no sledging. In summer, if it goes from 33c to 30c, we're still getting the paddling pool out!!
Yes, there are other differences as well. The temperatures that people get excited about in winter are forecasts in the minus single digits as minima, and in reality we can barely scrape an ice day in the southern half of Britain. What would be exciting for snow rampers would not be life threatening, as has been pointed out everyone has heating. I have been in Russia and Canada in genuinely cold temperatures that would be dangerous here, but we we do not even get close.
The 40C temperature that some are ramping irresponsibly on here will cause problems and death; interestingly for the same group of people that Covid was a threat for - the elderly, the obese and those with an underlying health condition. Is that a price worth paying to see a round number hit and get mathematical satisfaction?
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
More about education really. 40c doesn’t need to be dangerous if you are sensible….millions of people manage it for months on end every year. UK suffers more as our houses are built to retain heat.
I am not sure that is quite accurate. The people who manage it live in countries like the UAE or USA where everything is air-conditioned. I lived in Bahrain and I cannot imagine having lived in the 40C+ heat without sir-conditioned home, car, office and shops. Going outside it felt like a blast furnace. I also lived in Switzerland when they started having hotter than usual summers. Nowhere is air conditioned in Zurich canton, and the apartments are insulated to death - 34C was hard to live through.
Please do not underestimate the impact this will have.
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1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Yep the heat low actually interacts with the Atlantic jet and as such we see rain develop overhead, this would likely include thundery downpours.
Ensembles coming out now, the control appears to be close to the operational.
If the ECM follows suit in an hour or so then I would be starting to get concerned. The highest temperature I have ever experience was 39c in Girona back in 2003 and of course 37c three years ago in the Fens. The heat projected is on another level.
Pretty scary that us in Cambridgeshire are in bullseye on some charts. Thank goodness I have two portable (if noisy) air conditioners. I think I will not be going outside.
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12 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:
No extreme heat, just normal warm summer weather. As much as I would like somewhere to hit 40c, just to get the elephant out the room I cannot see it happening, models lead many people up the garden, path time and time again. I'm more than happy to eat my words though, but it just looks like a pleasant spell of weather for the south of the UK next week.
I think I speak for many, I would not like that, thank you.
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I lived in the Middle East years ago where it is regularly 40C or more. It is however, air-conditioned in home, car, office and shops. I do not want those temperatures here in the UK - we are not equipped to deal with them, and they will certainly lead to illness and death. I am not sure why some people are egging them on - is it some weird satisfaction at seeing records broken? I am happy with nice, warm UK summer days, not Middle Eastern style heat.
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Of course we all like the warm, dry weather that is now forecast ahead, but my goodness we need some rain in the East of England. I was walking along by the River Nene this afternoon, and dust was blowing up from the footpaths and my boots were covered in it, a bit like at the end of a long, dry summer.
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3 hours ago, Matt Jones said:
Probably the same outcome in winter. With sea temperatures around their coldest now, never delivers anytime of year here from an east or ne wind unless we get proper cold uppers. Though generally you have less of a sea track down there anyway.
What wind direction gives you snow? I am in N Cambs but only just moved here do I do not know what delivers round here.
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22 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Looks like it would progress similar to the GFS to me, the original cooler air sliding south for the Greenland high to either topple or flatten, this looks like it'll topple easier so I hope they're right
Isn't it better for it to stay in situ rather than topple or flatten (genuine question)?
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Met Office forecasting this for Peterborough next week. Not wildly exciting following all of the anticipation on the models thread.
