[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

50 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

GFS op having its normal hissy fits amongst the ensembles...and wow let's hope the control run is on to something...the mean is pretty solid though! Unlike today here...16c and absolutely hammering down..and it looks lovely on the South Coast...so Chris must be sunning himself.

And just to finish....a whopping 44c in parts of Spain right now!! Makes ya bloody sick don't it.

Very happy not to have 44c Matt. I didn't like that when I lived in air conditioning in Bahrain and certainly wouldn't like it here. As you have said before 24c with a nice breeze and low humidity will do me fine.

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

I see, looking ahead on the Met Office forecast, that even when daytime temperatures moderate nightime minima are still high (e.g. 15c in mid Sussex). Anyone know why that would be?

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

I really like mid 20s, low humidity and a breeze. I don't understand why people seem to will 30c plus with high humidity. It makes being active hard work.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Has there ever been snow in the south in April that has settled for any length of time? I can remember it snowing heavily in April and as late as May when I was young, but always disappearing quickly.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, certainly not that excited about an E'ly, been hopeless here the 2 we've had

But isn't it the only pattern that will keep deep cold in place now we are a bit later in winter?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Very disappointing so far in mid-Sussex. Wet ground, light snow/sleet and not settling. After all that anticipation.

[February cold spell discussion and chat]

Given the synoptics and the way the models look, I a surprised the Met Office are going for maxima of 1, -1, -1, and 1 over the next four days here in mid-Sussex. I am sure in the cold spells of my youth daytime temperatures were colder than that. One January in the mid-80s I am sure I remember -13 one night.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Something to keep an eye is heights over Iberia - they are beginning to show up more in the ensemble suites.

As I said earlier we are a long way from “boom” charts.  Potential yes, boom no!

Question for the experts about the Iberian high. Will this definitely scupper strong cold and snow for the south-east. If so, how much does it need to weaken or move to allow us to have what we desire?

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

I hope that SqueakheartLW has not been chased away from posting the votex charts. I enjoyed his summaries.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Confidence is now growing quite dramatically for a surface easterly around days 8-10. Great to see models trending this way. Further pulses of WAA will strengthen the Griceland ridge. This aligning the jet NNE to SSW days 8 to 10. The slack low gets pushed SE, resultantly becomes more organized & meets some splitting jet energy which has been shunted south under the main high. This again helping with an easterly before eyes to the North West again.

How long does the Easterly look like lasting? I hope it is set for a while.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Please could someone explain something to me. It appears to be generally accepted among members here that snowfall after the middle of Feb will be short-lived on the ground due to the strength of the sun making it melt or evaporate. Indeed, during the Best from the East last Feb / Mar that was exactly what happened here in mid-Sussex despite cold uppers and surface temperatures. However, where my wife is from in Russia is further south than here, and so the sun is theoretically even stronger, but fallen snow can stay intact there despite any sun, probably through to mid March. What are the factors at play here? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

41 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Clear to see how everyone's expectations vary massively reading through this thread this morning. I'm pretty sure many in the South would bank what's showing for Tues/Weds regardless of what happens after.

Sorry, I wouldn't. I don't see the point of a marginal snow event where everything disappears straight afterwards. Been through them quite a few times - it is like instant, shallow gratification. I think in our hearts we all want an easterly set for a long time, with deep cold and regular snow.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

I know the basics but chasing these charts in here isn`t right, it is a strat based subject. We are all chasing cold but as you will well know an SSW does not ensure us being entrenched up to our necks in cold. 

Anyway carry on.

I enjoy reading the SSW musings in here. It would be a pain to always have to switch to another thread to see them.