[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

K2 Buoy now shows 978mb a drop of 5mb in last hour. Wind increased to 49 Knots from the SW

K2 Observations

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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K2 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

K2 buoy now shows 983mb a drop of 4mb in the last hour.

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

There must be a possibility this system could spawn a tornado?

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Can I point out that cold weather will stop the transfer of the virus quite significantly.

Hopefully the hospitals will not have so many flu cases as well so an incoming cold snap should be a good thing

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile the canadian mod (gem)..

Wants us batterning down the hatches..

Very wet..very windy..

And certainly out of kilter with ukmo/gfs..

Ecm track will be more than intresting this evening !!!!

Indeed, one could say the isobars are quite tight

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They must have used the 0z ECM

I have always assumed the professionals have access to much better models than we do on this forum no matter who they work for

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Phew, taken me ages to read this great new thread. Incredible charts for this time of year. great to be back in the hunt guys

For me the most exciting thing about what is being shown is the potential for December/January. It would take some pretty astonishing cold uppers here in Cornwall to get snow on the ground in November.  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

14 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

It’s snowing mate, has been for the last hour. 

Yes and more on the way by the look of the radar

[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

This is going to be more common as possible outcomes over the next few weeks if the jet stream does not recover from its Southerly track. It may even mean a colder Summer, especially if it stays South

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Nothing in Truro this evening yet, although the radar suggest its on its way

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

If the models are right Cornwall will get more than last time. Right on the coast may be a bit sleety for a while. Its tomorrow that's more interesting, Remember Cornwall is not a wide county, small corrections can mean none or a blizzard so you will only be sure a few hours before. Watch the radar

It would not surprise me to see Cornwall upgraded to Red sometime tomorrow, we shall see.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

6 hours ago, Argyle1980 said:

Looking good and great to see the east of our region picking up the first of the snow. For us deep down in the west it’s a waiting game, but a exciting one as Sunday is looking good for us and hopefully the sweet spot will be over cornwall. Keep the info and photos coming guys.  ⛄️ ❄️ Oh, no need to panic buy....... just get out there and enjoy it ?

Just been to Truro Sainsburys. Too late for panic buying, hardly any milk left and bread is selling fast

[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

Are we seeing the northern hemisphere climate struggling to recover from such an epic SSW?

Factor in the solar output diminishing over the next few years. Maybe this will become the norm for the coming winters. 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

3 hours ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

GFS F1 shows bitterly cold air flooding down from the North with a snow risk of just about anywhere. Zero sign of spring yet - maybe this year will be knows as "The Winter That Never Ended".... 

I assume the models factor in the increasing strength of the Sun?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Snowing heavy in Truro now. Big flakes.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Just now, frosty ground said:

But the all important 850 0C line is still over France

As it is on the GFS 

 

Which is a lot different to what was predicted only 24 hours ago

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

18 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

How about a short one from me  

I must write these reports more often, every time I try and focus it starts snowing - only 2 cm but it's starting to accumulate (-4.5c) .  I want to enjoy this and I'll be out in it shortly when I venture to the Post Office.

WARNING: Part 4 of my long report will be postponed until tomorrow due to adverse weather conditions. I'll just contribute with a few pics and short updates and comments.  David

                         1200                                                          1330

  

Enjoy it, you deserve it with such informative and level headed posts.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, offerman said:

Serious question 

why does the M4 line have such a prolific affect on our weather? There’s no high ground there but so

often it’s mentioned on here and local /national forecasts line of m4 northward worst of weather. 

It acts like as a fire break for snow most of the time....

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Truro College had to shut this morning due to snow. Still showers blowing in off the channel but they have eased a little.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, offerman said:

Isn’t it weird that so cold any snow that falls melts thawed straight away? 

That will fall on Cornwall as snow later

 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

There are some people in this thread who are too quick to push the cold air out of the way, particularly if its the GFS showing it? This model has not performed that well in this current cold spell. It was not that long ago it suggested on Thursday there would be a low up to Southern Scotland. There were posts of "game over" etc and I am not just saying this is because its "not what I want to see". I believe this is far from nailed on as I said earlier and there are more twists to come. Forecasting a lows track is difficult when the parameters are "normal". The current situation is far from normal so just sit back enjoy any snow you get and lets see how it develops

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

I think Ian is saying at the very least this is far from over. If you look at the model corrections South over the last 24 hours then this is going to be a close one. I Woulden't like to be responsible for calling this correct and personally I believe there will be more corrections. The ICON has done well with this difficult period it was the first to pick up the trend and has run with it so its latest output is worth a look.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS more like icon than earlier. Low further east and disrupting. Also notice the tenancy for light snow band in th south in a Thursday ahead of the main course on Friday. 12z v 18z for comparison..

See how the low has flattened a little as it hits the cold air.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

8 minutes ago, Zak94 said:

I agree, such deep cold air is unlikely to displaced this quickly imo                                                 thats an incredibly hasty warm up from the gfs for western Europe in just over 48 hours... I dont buy it...

It does make me wonder at times how well the density of colder air is factored into model algorithms

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

These phone weather apps are overrated. If the BBC forecast is correct and I believe it is looking at the models (especially the one 2nd from the right) then we could have a historic event on Thursday on top of lying snow from showers going through Wednesday. Interesting times.