Philbill

K2 Buoy now shows 978mb a drop of 5mb in last hour. Wind increased to 49 Knots from the SW K2 Observations WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK K2 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

K2 buoy now shows 983mb a drop of 4mb in the last hour.

There must be a possibility this system could spawn a tornado?

Can I point out that cold weather will stop the transfer of the virus quite significantly. Hopefully the hospitals will not have so many flu cases as well so an incoming cold snap should be a good thing

Indeed, one could say the isobars are quite tight

I have always assumed the professionals have access to much better models than we do on this forum no matter who they work for

Phew, taken me ages to read this great new thread. Incredible charts for this time of year. great to be back in the hunt guys For me the most exciting thing about what is being shown is the potential for December/January. It would take some pretty astonishing cold uppers here in Cornwall to get snow on the ground in November.

Yes and more on the way by the look of the radar

This is going to be more common as possible outcomes over the next few weeks if the jet stream does not recover from its Southerly track. It may even mean a colder Summer, especially if it stays South

Nothing in Truro this evening yet, although the radar suggest its on its way

If the models are right Cornwall will get more than last time. Right on the coast may be a bit sleety for a while. Its tomorrow that's more interesting, Remember Cornwall is not a wide county, small corrections can mean none or a blizzard so you will only be sure a few hours before. Watch the radar It would not surprise me to see Cornwall upgraded to Red sometime tomorrow, we shall see.

Just been to Truro Sainsburys. Too late for panic buying, hardly any milk left and bread is selling fast

Are we seeing the northern hemisphere climate struggling to recover from such an epic SSW? Factor in the solar output diminishing over the next few years. Maybe this will become the norm for the coming winters.

I assume the models factor in the increasing strength of the Sun?

Snowing heavy in Truro now. Big flakes.

Which is a lot different to what was predicted only 24 hours ago

Enjoy it, you deserve it with such informative and level headed posts.

It acts like as a fire break for snow most of the time....

Truro College had to shut this morning due to snow. Still showers blowing in off the channel but they have eased a little.

That will fall on Cornwall as snow later

There are some people in this thread who are too quick to push the cold air out of the way, particularly if its the GFS showing it? This model has not performed that well in this current cold spell. It was not that long ago it suggested on Thursday there would be a low up to Southern Scotland. There were posts of "game over" etc and I am not just saying this is because its "not what I want to see". I believe this is far from nailed on as I said earlier and there are more twists to come. Forecasting a lows track is difficult when the parameters are "normal". The current situation is far from normal so just sit back enjoy any snow you get and lets see how it develops

I think Ian is saying at the very least this is far from over. If you look at the model corrections South over the last 24 hours then this is going to be a close one. I Woulden't like to be responsible for calling this correct and personally I believe there will be more corrections. The ICON has done well with this difficult period it was the first to pick up the trend and has run with it so its latest output is worth a look.

See how the low has flattened a little as it hits the cold air.

It does make me wonder at times how well the density of colder air is factored into model algorithms

These phone weather apps are overrated. If the BBC forecast is correct and I believe it is looking at the models (especially the one 2nd from the right) then we could have a historic event on Thursday on top of lying snow from showers going through Wednesday. Interesting times.