Philbill

Looking at the models the cold spell being prolonged is very much back on and so is a possible blizzard here for the end of the week. For those of you thinking its rain, well maybe it will be, however experience tells me the chances of that are reducing as the models backtrack a little. If it is a blizzard from a bitter cold Easterly then you will not forget it in a hurry. When the beast has paid you a visit you tend not to forget its embrace.

As many have said so far. The small correction South on the UKMO has considerable significance. If that continues then the likelihood of rain recedes. Am I right in thinking that if the low tracked down the channel its northern edge would be Snow in the cold air? Also it would pick up more moisture as it rotates over the channel? Which increases the snow potential?

So am I

Hello all I would think that just about everyone should see some snow from this little cold (or not we shall see) spell so hold onto your hats and wrap up warm. I told my students last week to be prepared ( I know I probably shouldn't) and they nearly all laughed and said it does not snow down here. So if we get no snow in Cornwall its my fault.

Yes its hard to believe when you look at the weather being predicted. I think on the whole the models have done quite well in their predicted outcomes for this cold spell.

I did not say the models "must be wrong" I am saying its too early to tell which is exactly what you are saying. I just don't think the push North will be as much as shown. Of course you are also entitled to your opinion which is what is great about a forum. It promotes healthy debate as long as some people don't turn it into something personal

As a scientist I can see why the arguments are occurring over just where this low pressure is going on Friday. Since most of the models are showing a breakdown to warmer air over the SW on Friday its a reasonable assumption. Also the ensembles would all be in agreement if the models are showing the same for most/all perturbations. However, these are extreme circumstances and we are 4/5 days away as more data is fed in closer to the time I expect them to correct South as I believe they are being overly progressive in pushing the cold air back. A 50-100 mile correction further South would mean blizzards for the South the like that have not been seen for a while. I don't think even with the model output we see now that anyone can say its "game over for the cold spell". Also its not as though the jet has changed and an Atlantic depression was being forecast. I think this is more difficult to call and the models are struggling a little. Interesting few days ahead.

So as always it will probably be somewhere in the middle!

Its my fault, I just told the wife to get some tin food in. Lets hope its being a little over progressive with its Northerly track. If the other models join in to the same extent then I guess the likelihood increases

Looks as though the cold uppers are spreading across the UK a little quicker?

From what I have learned from the years I have browsed this forum, with the cold already in place for a few days I am less worried about the channel low than I would be. I would expect it to run out of oomph and flatten against the cold air a little and possibly veer west or just rotate around back down South West. It is also very difficult for the models to nail down the actual track until within 24Hrs? If it stays in the channel then its likely I wont be able to post for a while as I will have no electricity The classic snow events in the past for the South west mostly occurred during breakdowns in the cold where systems from the Atlantic bumped into cold air over the SW and buried it, this is somewhat different. Is it not possible that most of the media is holding back on warnings about snow as they too are unsure about this feature? e.g. BBC? Interesting next few days

Yes the beast is coming, however the models are not really in the reliable yet to resemble something that may actually verify as regards snow and where it may fall yet. They are trying not to panic people I guess. IMHO this is no ordinary situation developing and they have access to better models than we do in here. I expected the warnings to start this evening

Hi all, Been following this forum for 5 years waiting for the beast to come and bite me like it used to in the 70' and 80's. Thanks for all the expert posts guys its been a rollercoaster ride, maybe this time it really is true Phil