[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Is there anyone decent to follow on twitter for southern central weather forecasts? The bbc and met office apps are shocking? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

6 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Snow grains here haha- I’d rather not bother! Does anyone know if this may get a bit heavier and actually lay a bit?

U may catch the heavier batch which is travelling over chichester havant portsmouth.. im in netley so just missing the heavier patch. An hr flurry laying on shed decking etc as so cold.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Light snow flurry for the last 40 mins mostly graupel with some flakes chucked in during the slightly heavier flurry. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Looking dry for the entire week here 6 miles south east of southampton... so difficult to get any snow here recently.  Slight downgrade on temps for the week 0,0,2,2,4 and 6 on Saturday.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Dry and Grey out with a breeze picking up, 2c probably be like this for the entire week with no snow events 6 miles south east of southampton. I wont complain,happy to have some dry days to dry out the saturated ground. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

I really hope the models keep pushing back the atlantic progression. Would be nice down here to have a proper cold week rather than the original 3-4 days. How nailed is the scandi high? Guessing it can still go wrong.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Anyone calling the cold spell over at the end of the week is being a bit premature. The block is putting up a bit more of a fight it seems.

It will be so tough with all the energy in the eastern seaboard probably as strong as its been all winter. Will have to be so strong to keep pushing back low after low.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

15 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yes, me too. all this "fronts not expected to progress" and now one rund and its "becoming milder" lol. fickle eh

I cant see any cold shot lasting for more than 3 days tbh.. the energy on the eastern seaboard is as strong as it has been all winter.. crazy energy driving low after low... -20 in chicago

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Snap here,  chilly and dry which is the main thing. I would take anything over day after day of rain so 4 dry days will be much welcome down here on the hampshire coast.  By thursday its up to 7c and raining again....

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

An historic southern UK blizzard is in the making I reckon. With that much cold air in place fighting a fired up Atlantic and there is only one way it will end up!

Not with sw onshore winds....long way out but models are worrying at this stage. Feels like a 3-4 day cold snap (bar the north). Hope im wrong and the cold is stubborn to shift but feels like the atlantic will win out fairly quickly.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Even the GEM OP does have some snow btw, its less than some of the other models but I'm not sure you can describe it as no:

850hpa temps between -4 to -6c, dew points of -1c and temps around 0c.

For sure, not the big totals seen on some of the other models, but its still giving some snow for most of EA/SE.

Unfortunately some of us live in the extreme south on a coastal location. Latest feel is not great for sunday now, one thing we dont need in southampton is more rain. Rather just dry and chilly than rain and cold.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

My best guess is the global models struggle with the shape of the solent, and because of the grid sizes they have they will go for a lower average as a way of accounting for the odd shape of the solent? 

Or perhaps its a real signal, but I can't see any real logical reason given the wind direction is overland other than the grid point solution mentioned above.

Thanks for the input and totally agree any onshore winds and its game over before its even started for us. We need winds of the land to get snow here at sea level. Fingers crossed we get to see a few flakes havent seen a flake since Mar 2018

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That ECM chart probably is too high for the UK, you could probably shave 20-25% off those values.

EVen then your still looking at 8-10 inches in peak zones.

Interestingly, this matches up fairly closely with the GFSP on the 06z:

Sounds about right! Southampton has a grey gap with no measurement lol

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

35 minutes ago, Eastbourneguy said:

The low is ever to slightly too far north for coastal counties in the south on the 12Z ECM according to the raw output. But it's go time 30miles or so inland!

Been like that all winter! Actually most winters...

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

27 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Absolutely dreadful run for the South and SE of the country that have already put up with the most torturous winter in living memory. A bit like myself supporting Spurs- we're always nearly but never quite enough. There was so much promise at the start of the season but the runs of the last 2 days are mirroring Spurs current form.

I hope the low is modelled a couple hundred miles further south in future runs so we can finally see some of the white stuff but unlikely IMO

 

If I was living Midlands northwards I'd be delighted with this winter but also hoping other areas got in on the act too so we can all have a memorable winter, but knowing our luck the pattern will be more favourable in Spring as is often the case here.

Totally agree with you, i cant remember a winter where the contrasts have been so big. Down here on the south coast its been mild, dull and wet for the most part with a couple of frosts. You would never have thought January was the coldest in the uk for 10 years living down here! I think were destined for nothing again down here other than a couple of cold dry days which will be most welcome after the amount of rain we have had! I hope im wrong!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

6.6 degrees now,  clear blue sky and little breeze feels spring like in the sunshine....still zero snow here since Mar 2018....  

Time is running out!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Another rain shower in Southampton, just not cold enough...hasnt been all winter really... just wet wet wet....

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm at 4.1°C after the passing shower pulled some colder air down.

4.9 here se of southampton on the coast, shocking really.  Rain approaching again aswell...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Yep a mile inland onshore winds so never a chance of seeing the white stuff really.. be the same for the entire coast need to be a good 5 miles inland i would say

Here we go this is pretty spot on with accuracy right now.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

You must be very unlucky or right on the coast as the temp gradient from snow/rain is about 15-20miles 

Yep a mile inland onshore winds so never a chance of seeing the white stuff really.. be the same for the entire coast need to be a good 5 miles inland i would say

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Thunder snow reported in Southampton, never witnessed that!

We had thunder and lightning here in southampton with some hail but no snow... raining heavily

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, South coaster said:

Is there even a south coast thread im just north of portsmouth ?.

The winds are going to be onshore along the entire south coast, v little chance of snow unless 10/15 miles inland which is a shame. Im in southampton and this often happens, an easterly or a northerly wind required...

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks like all the models have an onshore wind tomorrow am along the south coast, maybe some freezing rain for a time here but can’t see dp’s staying subzero and can’t therefore see any snow. Probably the closest we’ll get to snow this winter.

Yep correct the onshore wind will mean no snow for all of us along the coast only need to go 10/15 miles inland and it should all be snow

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

6c here in Netley today sunny and feeling quite warm, just cant see anything other than rain for southampton and surrounding areas tomorrow...i hope im wrong though.