Joe Snow

Moderate outbreaks of sleety rain here in S Cheshire, rain to my south across N Staffs & Stoke at higher elevation. Evap cooling may come into play once any heavier precipitation arrives later this morning but think it’ll still be on the sleetier side here tbh.

cheshire snow It’s going to be a nowcast isn’t it. Probably a middle ground for lower levels like us between the misery Hi res models & GFS snowday.

Geordiesnow I’m very hesitant to write off an event before it’s started and it will still be a significant event for Peaks & Pennines but if it can find a way for it to cold rain in NW England it will, no shield to speak of & it’ll pour!

Hearing on the grapevine that all Flintshire county council schools are closed tomorrow due to the Amber snow warning for NE Wales. Cheshire is one of those counties that despite neighbouring the likes of Flintshire it’s somewhere where heavy snow can fall to its S, W, N & E and we are stuck in the middle with sleet A few hrs of falling wet snow & a potential temporary covering probably the best we’ll see here - Peak District will probably do very well for a time. ALL schools in Flintshire closed tomorrow due to weather forecast WWW.LEADERLIVE.CO.UK Flintshire Council has taken the decision to close all schools

Latest MO take on tomorrow’s snow risk - a temporary 2-5cm covering below 200m is still highlighted.

Chris.R I always value @Kasim Awan& your insights for snowfall events - it’s never an easy task to get decent snowfall in this region but both of you do a more accurate job than the MO sometimes backed up by local/ local microclimate knowledge Personally for my S Cheshire location at 65m asl I see a brief period of heavy wet snow/ sleet between 8am-12pm quickly turning to sleety rain then just plain cold rain. Would be great to see something more wintry but not sure this event will deliver even temporarily as well as some first expected for lower ground, higher ground a different story. We shall see though

MO automated has upgraded going for a couple of hrs of morning heavy wet snow tomorrow turning to sleet by lunchtime and rain by evening here in S Cheshire seems to be about right tbh. MO Text forecast looks underwhelming at first glance but still ok when you factor in how conservative the MO are likely to be about a battleground event. High ground should do well, lower ground maybe too for a time but increasingly sleety and rainy from the south so transitional being the word of the day.

Day 10 I was in N London for Winter 2017/18 - the BFTE was superb down there - deep snow even in Central London so I can see why they salivate over Easterlies! But yeah judging by family & friends pics & those charts we did have snowfall in Cheshire 27th/28th Feb 2018 and then again in March 2018. Jan 2013 was snowy here - 18th Jan the biggest event of the winter but Mar 2013 was cold, grey with several near miss events. Thurs will be a nowcast but here’s hoping for at least a temporary covering for all

cheshire snow Maybe I’m being over cautious it’s giving me 18th Jan 2013 vibes that was a good event here.

cheshire snow How much are we thinking for us South Cheshire lot? I would say 1-3cm wet covering turning to sleet then rain overnight into Fri maybe more if we are very lucky. MO Deep Dive forecast highlighting the potential for disruption for northern cities - MCR/ Liverpool& North Mids.

Weather-history I wonder where/ if anywhere will go Amber tomorrow don't envy the MO trying to pinpoint where will be most impacted.

Day 10 Can't remember if we had a SE wind for the event but would 18th Jan 2013 be a comparable event to Thursday's potential snowfall we had around 5-7cm here from memory? That too was a front moving in from the SW and pushing north, North Midlands (Stoke, Staffs), Liverpool, Wirral, S & W Cheshire did particularly well but a snow shield affected parts of Gtr MCR and the Stockport area giving a light covering yet Buxton, Macc, Peak District weren't affected by any shield so it was pretty localised to the Manchester City Centre area and its SE suburbs.

There has been a slight shift south of the snow bringing the Midlands in on the snow on Thurs but still looking good for a period of wet snow for most, the system stalling even at first glance at the 12z’s. With a second pulse of snowfall perhaps affecting the north of the region into Friday. SW areas of the region probably doing best for chances of accumulating lower level snowfall, there will be a shadow over Gtr MCR but I think even that will be broken as the system moves north. Interestingly we’ve seen a shadow effect of sorts today persistent heavy rain, foul afternoon with surface flooding here in Cheshire yet looking lighter N MCR northwards on the radar ️

cheshire snow Yeah if confidence continues in the track of Thursdays snow I can see an Amber being issued tomorrow, the system is impacting during Thurs daytime so likely to be disruptive where snow falls & accumulates. Could be a significant all be it transient heavy snow-sleet/ rain event for us on lower ground too. MO & BBC Text forecasts looking ok for Thursday

South Cheshire - Crewe, Congleton, Sandbach, Nantwich, Northwich down to Tarporley/ Malpas kind of way is just enough South to be out of the shield that tends affect N/ NE of Macclesfield but we are not always far west enough not to be completely unaffected depending on the set up - Mar 2013 was a bust for example where as NE Wales got buried. Thurs will more than likely be a wintry mix of wet snow- sleet & rain here anyway we shall see

Day 10 We’ve had some great sunsets & skylines the past few days just seen this one of the Manchester skyline at sunset snapped from the Cheshire Plain @ The Edge, Alderley Edge from last Friday. It’ll be nice to see one last proper covering of snow across the region to round off winter. NW England to be fair has eaten well off the scraps this Winter has thrown, it has been a Midlands northwards kind of winter so far really for any proper winter weather away from very cold nights & frosty conditions in early Dec & mid Jan so I can understand to some extent the frustration of those Birmingham southwards - they did have a January blizzard taken off them at the last hour after all!

Kasim Awan Some improvements on the 12z for Thursday’s snow potential. Do you think the MO’s 2-5cm warning for low levels, 10-20cm for higher ground looks accurate? Gtr MCR/ NE Cheshire snow shield may come into play but less so than normal? A thing to note also is this snowfall is forecast during the early morning rush into the daytime so disruption is more likely from this frontal sleet/ snow than say a Sat night overnight snowfall from snow showers. I think we might see a wet covering of around 2-3cm here in S Cheshire if we see the snowfall, it’ll be a messy wintry mix to low levels I suspect. Would love to see more but happy to take any accumulating snowfall really.

Lots could still change but we are seeing upgrades as we get closer to the event - still think lower ground in the south of the region & on the coast will see a wintry mix of sleet & heavy wet snow but even here accumulation. Peak District, Pennines into the N Midlands look the sweet spot this AM.

If Thursday's snowfall comes off it might be one of those now quite rare Midlands northwards battleground snow events - somewhere could get some significant snowfall (a dumping) from it though as it looks currently, really don't envy the pro forecasters having to make the call between heavy disruptive wet snowfall over most Northern & Midlands Cities - MCR, Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Stoke perhaps as far south as Birmingham and a Peaks & Pennines event with a wintry mix largely of cold rain to lower ground. We could see a slight further shift south and north too lots to keep an eye on and we won't really know till Tues I am guessing.

Would love to see different but a messy wintry mix I think at best currently Wed/Thurs cold rain, sleet, wet snow, freezing rain even all in the mix a tricky forecast for sure. Any real interest remaining mid month onwards though... really hope we aren't just endlessly kicking the can down the road for 4c, a frost and a wintry shower.

Rob 79812010 Born in 94 so don’t really have any memory of 90s winters although do have pics of me out in what looks to be deep snow in 96, 2001 & I have vague memories of sledging in the snow on Boxing Day 2004. 5th Jan 2010 was better up your way - here we got around 8-10cm, not bad, Schools closed for a few days but close to a ft of snow in Stockport/ Gtr MCR/ N Cheshire. 18th Jan 2013 was better here than MCR due to the shadow effect - S Cheshire got 6-7cm. Storm Christoph’s heavy rain- wet snow saw 8cm but had gone slushy by lunchtime the next day. Deepest snowfall I’ve seen here was 17th-18th Dec 2010, I measured 12-14cm that stayed on the ground over Xmas 2010. Despite some bitter cold spells its an effort to get past that 5cm mark these days.

Rob 79812010 4-5cm is a significant snowfall here these days too tbh low lying South Cheshire certainly isn’t snowy although it doesn’t have the Urban Heat Island effect MCR City Centre has. We seem to locally have fallen into a pattern in recent years of brief very cold dry spells that deliver 1 or 2 light coverings of snow vs any significant snowfall - the stuff you can sledge in.

Rob 79812010 Yeah we had a decent covering of snow in both early Dec & like Manchester in mid Jan nothing more than 4-5cm though. Just not a fan of ‘mild’ Winter weather that is so often damp & drizzly or stormy so you rarely feel the supposed benefit. One last chance at a cold shot with snow for some from mid-late Feb is looking a potential now we shall see.

severe snowstorm Yeah some early brightness but now drizzly damp & meh. This is why ‘mild’ weather in Winter is pants it nearly never is dry and pleasant for the NW.

Might just be me but first morning that felt a bit lighter outside, woken up by the birds too - signs of Spring on the way, I love cold & snow but by mid March I’m definitely ready for the change in season. Happy weekend all!