Joe Snow

Call me overly cautious but until the GFS is dragged kicking and screaming back on board to more than a day or two of cold next week I still will have doubts about the depth & longevity of next weeks cold spell as with the GFS it’s usually good at sniffing out cold weather spoilers, it just exaggerates them a bit in the long term outlook.

Notable is how bullish they are being about next weeks cold & snow potential - big now independent names such as the brilliant John Hammond (former BBC Weather forecaster) also are very much on board. The MO are usually very cautious but must be gearing up for potential significant high impact weather where Amber & even Red Warnings would be issued for them to allow such tweets to be posted out by forecasters on social media. Would love to be a fly on the wall as they brief Government & local authorities later this week

Hmm for Met Office forecasters to be posting this kind of heads up out it makes you wonder what they might be seeing & saying behind closed doors so to speak - must be some quite strong confidence in significant & disruptive snow (exact areas of highest impact tbc) next week for this to be allowed to be tweeted out - what with the media likely to pounce on it & sensationalise etc...

I’m cautiously optimistic but glad it’s the wobbly GFS against the largely cold- very cold outlook modelled by the UKMO/ ICON & ECM next week Whilst snowstorm charts are beautiful to look at - Snowfall from the south as others have mentioned can be a risky game for NW England when compared to features and troughs that develop at shorter notice on a N/ NNW/ NW’ly flow as they often are either too far south for starters, dump what they have over the Midlands & lose intensity over the region, leaving Manchester northwards with the dregs - Gtr MCR in particular Manchester City Centre & its lower level suburbs also suffers from the SE’ly wind snow shield that can even make otherwise decent nearly nationwide events such as 18th Jan 2013 less of an event - Stockport under the shield for example saw a dusting whereas Crewe saw several hrs of moderate- heavy snowfall leaving 6-7cm of lying snow that day. South & Mid Cheshire roughly south & west of Macclesfield , Merseyside & the Wirral seem to not be as affected by a SE wind weirdly, very much a Manchester micro climate peculiarity.

18z is a cold but dry run into FI lots of hard frosts, below average days, temps just above freezing at best but not the showstopping snow of the 12z or any small snow maker features either. Let's see what the morning brings...

Mid January- Early Feb looks ripe for battlegrounds on the Netweather monthly, below average temps this week, well below average temps next week, less cold with milder conditions from the SW perhaps temporarily before colder than average again from the north. Tonight's crazy 12z GFS snow aside - there is real potential for a big impact snow event/ events over the next few weeks. Lots to watch to see what develops, twists, turns and surprises along the way.

Shades of a more potent 18th Jan 2013 there. It’ll correct south and bury the Midlands just watch

An unstable northerly & or a Cheshire Gap snow streamer is always a winner here, East Cheshire can get away with more marginal set ups at times such as Winter 2020/21. I think Winter 2000/01 had a big snow event locally have pics of me as a kid out in what must have been about 4 or so inches of snow - pic was dated Feb 01. Here’s hoping next week delivers for us

You can sense both confidence & momentum is building towards a notable cold spell next week. Really hoping the NW is in a good place for some snowfall once the proper cold arrives even a few inches of snow that sticks around a few days would keep many of us happy but it’s looking good as things stand, small features that crop up at short notice from the N (maybe even a Polar Low) or the Irish Sea firing up will be our likely snow makers before any possible battleground scenarios come into play late month. In the short term a cold, cloudy, raw day out, maybe a chance of catching a wintry flurry later SE England seem to be doing better than expected, more widespread shower activity than forecast with even flurries into Central London

Well I think even NW England, S Cheshire and the long suffering Wirral included would get a covering if that chart came off haha We are beginning to see gradual upgrades - always good to see on the cusp of a cold spell.

Easing the Sunday night back to work blues by watching the NE USA/ New England snowstorm fall - some gorgeous viewing on the live cams. The most significant snowfall they have had in 2 yrs - rare for them to go so long without snow. Here's to some of the white stuff falling on our side of the Atlantic more specifically NW England very soon

Expect wall to wall coverage if it snows in London tomorrow then although North Kent, the North downs looks most favoured. It'll be these short notice small features that crop up that will deliver localised snowfall pre any pushback into the cold from the W/SW I think. NW England can do well from both short notice and battleground setups it will just be a watching, waiting game.

SE England/ EA look good for a few sleet & snow showers tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t the odd wintry flurry over the Peaks/ Pennines & Far East of the region though. 06z goes all GFS at the end of the run from bitter to Atlantic blowtorch - hints at a battleground between cold air to the north & Atlantic air to the SW perhaps around the 20th Jan. Like I say let’s get the cold in and see where we go from there.

Nice frosty Sunday morning down to -1c overnight. Signs of a backtrack on the cold spell on the models? For the south yes maybe but think we might stay on the cold side of things with transient snowfall risks as blocking eases late month. Lots to be resolved perhaps one of the more exhausting chases of recent years. Will be interesting to see any changes in the wording of the MO update later but think they will come tomorrow if models continue to delay & dilute the potency of any cold. Let’s see what this week brings.

In London & the SE maybe. 21-22c is the Manchester July average. High 20s being a hot summers day.

I am encouraged by all the other output & MO being bullish but it would just be our luck wouldn’t it!

Makes you realise how poor the weather has been when today a bright chilly winters day has been such a welcome change from the constant mild, wet & windy weather of recent. A cold night to come tonight perhaps with some more mist & fog. Cold/ Very cold theme continues on the models - lots to be resolved particularly in terms of any snow potential but think this is the boldest the MO have been in their medium - long term outlook since the BFTE in Feb 2018

Stunning outlook. Would be interested to hear @Cheshire Freeze @damianslaw & @Kasim Awan’s view on potential for severe cold & snow from a NW England perspective into mid month. You’ve got the technical knowledge I wish I had! + I think some of you also signalled a potential blocked pattern pre winter too. Are we primed for a 09/10/ Jan 2013 redux that we can count down to or is it merely fantasy chart viewing at the moment? ️

Foggy start down to 0c overnight with a slight frost that’s more like it - last cold snap/ spell in late Nov/ early Dec began with fog & frost and a week later we had a covering of snow.

Haha sounds like a good Friday. Winter is ramping up a notch on the 18z - deeper cold and we even get buried by a polar low at one point. Won't be there in the morning I'm sure but start of several gradual upgrades after some despondency from some today maybe?

Yeah I don't post in there but as someone who has lived both in the SE and the NW there's a definite SE bias in the height of winter and summer - the SE do quite alright for snow, heat and storms despite what some may say

I see what you mean from our weather watcher standpoint but I guess cold weather alerts are issued more in line with public impacts on NHS (especially with ongoing strikes & usual winter pressures), energy including trigger points for winter fuel payments, local authorities & the vulnerable for an extended period of below average temps - we are looking at nearly 2 weeks at least of below or just below average temps (Manchester Jan daytime average is around 6-7c) - yeah it won’t get us weather geeks hearts beating quite yet but the MO are right to issue them as the national weather service.

SE Cheshire got away with it just about this morning but showery rain has filtered over through the Cheshire Gap this way this afternoon, as others have mentioned poorly forecast and has only added to the seemingly endless amount of wet, damp days this past month or so but at least its beginning to feel a bit more seasonably cold. Maybe some mist/ fog tomorrow to contend with but then hopefully some drier weather to come for the majority of the weekend into next week as the colder air arrives. Having looked at the latest models, GFS 00z/06z 'wobble' included and the highly encouraging MO long range update this afternoon with it's cold - less cold blip - potentially even colder with snow potential evolution I think the word of the day today would be 'steady' let's get the colder weather in next week, dry out (hopefully), enjoy some frosty, foggy mornings and see where it takes us

Happy Friday all - avoid the noise of the other thread and take yourself back in time for a moment to the snowy NW nirvana of 14 yrs ago - 5th January 2010 ️

I’m cautiously optimistic - best chance at a severe cold spell since 2018 but if we are still looking at Day 10 charts by this time next week we know we’ve been led down the garden path Hoping to count this one down though in some form