James Maidstone
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Posts posted by James Maidstone
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Two things which strike me about Isha are:
1.) Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning
2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time
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43 minutes ago, Zero Visibility said:
Not good unfortunately.
Still talking about a 60 mile shift northwards for this run to bring the South into the game, marginal adjustments, unfortunately with UKMO, Icon and ECM all singing from the same hymn sheet, the odds are not in our favour.
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
It's a shame the low isn't progged another 50 miles north that would have put some of our southern members in the game .
I'm not convinced the track of the lows is finalised yet either BTW ..
In terms of the track of a low 96+ hours out 50 miles is nothing. I agree with this, although I think we need to be realistic now that it is an outside chance and the bulk of the model runs have in increasingly tracking South, well South in some cases, but there are some that don't and recent model runs to my untrained eye show the depth/strength of the Northerly as not quite as strong which potentially could help to buck the trend.
Personally I would wait until Monday for calling the Atlantic low a bust for frontal snow, however I would expect reasonable odds if I were to back it affecting mainland UK at this stage.
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High pressure starting to build over Norway by day by 192 on the 6Z GFS
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58 minutes ago, IDO said:
For London, the ensembles confirm the op was an outlier for 850 temps at D10 (shocker!):
Manchester:
The trend was a rise versus the op, a fall at D10.
Also, there is an outlier at 500hPa at D9.
But overall not a bad mean, even if the OP is maybe a tad colder than likely on this run.
The negative is the synoptic mean at D10:
No mean undercut going on there, and in fact very similar to GEFS:
It's not an outlier (unless you go into FI), just lower in the envelope
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6 minutes ago, DavidS said:
Having the low track as far north as shown on the ECM 12z op is within the envelope of possibilities, but probably not the likeliest solution. I would imagine something quite a bit south would be more likely, in fact i would be less surprised if the eventual outcome was it went too far south. But that of course is to be determined and many more options will be shown by the ops in the next few days.
This is pretty much what the Met Office said, the track on the 12Z Op run is within the least likely outcomes according to the Met, but as you say, look at the envelope and see where it sits, compare tomorrow's 0z and 12z and then the day after that etc
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
They literally said he was the chief forecaster & that he is in charge of weather warnings, i.e the role of chief forecaster. He also does other stuff too though.
P.S. There is more than 1 'chief forecaster'.
..He was previously chief forecaster
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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
The op is clearly wrong - just await the ENS to come out
The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs , therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs
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2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Carinthian..
Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline.
Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century.
It has become known as the North Sea disaster.
That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland.
Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be a Christmas wrecker.
I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow) and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries.
A few links which may be of interest below -
Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388
The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope.
I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities.
PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient.
In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia.
MIA
Tides in the 5-7 day range aren't spring but neither are they neap either
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moderate snow in Maidstone, have a covering, still coming down
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27 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Arome had everything modelled way further South than this morning too. Rain/Snow/Sleet went possibly 100 miles further North than Arome was showing.
This was Arome's 00Z for 11am this morning:
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1 hour ago, johncam said:
Models seem to be agreeing.To be honest would prefer our cold in the next 6 weeks or so when sun is low and longer nights. Once these patterns get established they are hard to shift.
In 6 weeks time the sun will be at the same angle and the nights will be the same as today
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8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
IF AND ITS A BIG IF!!if the ecm shows what the gfs shows then this place shall go into meltdown!but im saying no its not gona happen!!sorry im as positive as anyone but it aint gona show what the gfs has!!!hope im wrong lol!!i be just happy to see an extention to the cold to be honest!!!defo dont want the ukmo!!!!!!horrible!
ECM doesn't go that far out does it?
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47 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Almost looks like a carbon copy of the run up to last Christmas, cold in a slack northerly flow. Last year many were celebrating the failure of any systems making inroads into the UK, we remained mostly dry before a tepid breakdown near to xmas week. Hopefully this year we will get a more interesting transition.
In parts of Kent we got 5 inches of snow in a couple of hours one Sunday night from a channel low which moved North. Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. Then it stuck around for a week.
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Once the block is in place with entrenched cold (especially with snow cover) it becomes extremely stubborn to more - and when it does finally get moved there can be some good snow chances when the milder air hits it.
Thanks, - I get that, but at range the models indicate that frontal snow would sweep it aside and milder air follows quickly, but if I remember correctly in 2010-2011 the block kept pushing back, but the block was colder and stronger then?
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In terms of extending the cold snap, there seems general consensus of the models for letting the Atlantic in 7/8th December, although a minority of cross model ensemble members support retaining the cold. Historically, how often does the block delay the warm up or more than hold its ground and extend the cold?
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6 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Do you know how much of an influence this cold spell is likely to have on reducing the SSTs in the North Sea and other places like the channel for snow chances going forward in the rest of Winter?
Last year a cold week was enough to bring the SST near enough back to average, so a lot less time than you may think for the North Sea
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2 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:
But surely with lake or ocean effect snow you require cold wind over warmer water?
Yes, but you need the temperature cold enough for it to influence whether it falls as rain or snow, finely balanced.
Remember 3 years ago in early Jan we had about 30mm of rain here from NE winds, air temps around 2-3 degrees, dew points just the wrong side of marginal. Had we had a colder North Sea we would have had close to a foot of snow (although had it been colder then there would have been less precipitation in the first place).
It's a fine balance!
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53 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:
I would hate to throw in some pessimism but the higher than average sea temperatures around the UK may scupper the chances of snow particularly in the South and around the coasts of England and Wales.
Only thing I would say to this was I was surprised how quickly the North Sea cooled down last year with only a week or so of cold temps
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8 hours ago, Metwatch said:
Scotland getting buried on the first day of winter, (unreliable time frame yes I know) as mild air in a warm sector gets squeezed out. Nothing new for them of course.
Hardly getting buried "The Scottish Highland receive a few cm of snow in December" about as normal as you can get
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Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Supacell go to Dungeness area