James Maidstone
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Posts posted by James Maidstone
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7 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:
Well if I don’t wake up to at least it snowing and a covering here in Larkfield tomorrow morning , my phone is being flushed down the loo !!
Something would have had to have gone seriously wrong! Especially as Larkfield on the correct wind isn't blocked by any high ground. The actual transition time will be interesting, looking like 2am currently, I imagine it will be quite abrupt when it happens, especially if heavy!
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1 hour ago, clark3r said:
People are getting too caught up on each run, the latest metoffice forecast for our region is amazing, jez if I fail to get snow in the next few days it will be the biggest let down ever
The Met Office has been the steady ship over the last 10 days or so, I would be very disappointed should it let us down at the final hurdle. It is only really Icon/Aperage pushing the low further East
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12 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
No.
850'a are much better though for our area.
I assumed that was from the perspective of the precipitation amounts rather than the temperatures enabling snow? the greater the sinking SE then the less the risk, but also less of a reward
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1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:
Very exciting times ahead . Thought I’d post the Harmonie final chart that is now coming in to range. Could that be a little Thames streamer showing up amongst the band .
Harmonie ties in very well to the Met Office Amber Warning
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So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet? The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it. Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted? How is the swingometer looking?
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I may be a novice amateur when it comes to meteorology, but from what I can see there are two salient points
- As they say "Get the cold in first and then worry about everything else -that now seems fairly likely for the vast majority of the country?
- Worry about the exact position of the low at 96/120/144 and how it affects precipitation streams is unnecessary detail at this stage, since the position of the low which is currently being modeled for Sunday/Monday is not where it will actually be and thus the precipitation charts are not worth worrying about at this stage? You have got to be in it to win it and we are getting closer to being in it?
I hope I am not barking up the wrong tree with the above points?
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6 minutes ago, That ECM said:
The low is positioned differently on this run.
That is a big change, must be 300 miles SSE
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58 minutes ago, lambgregg1977 said:
That's potential avalanche Snow depths in the Highlands. Good grief!
Avalanches are pretty common in the Highlands, as are huge volumes of snow, however wind re deposition of snow is far more responsible for vast build ups of snow in certain areas which are more likely to cause avalanches than just a uniform snow fall
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1 hour ago, Stu_London said:
a number of ice days in the mix too
Where?
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2 hours ago, Griff said:
And relax at 168
If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers. Not a done deal for the whole country..
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14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
SSTs warmer than average, here anomaly for today:
Particularly warmer than average over North Sea, which when (not if) the BFTE comes, will be significant.
if the BFTE comes in and it is the right side of marginal then couldn't this aid the snow creation and subsequent precip rates?
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Maidstone. V brief sleet/snow shower as part of the line travelling SW from the Downs. ASL 230ft, DP 0.5, temp 1.4
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Sleet here in Maidstone 230ft asl
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Light to moderate snow in maidstone for last 45 mins. Covering on grass, cars and some of the pavement. Heavy stuff yet to hit. 230ft asl
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4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:
Scotland
In all seriousness it depends but typically 150m probably better to ask someone else.
it is relative. Originally I was from the Midlands and the place I lived for that area was very low lying at around 100ft, there would quite often be nothing there but as soon as you drove away and got to 200ft you would start seeing bits on the verges, go 4 or 5 miles away to Redditch at 300-400ft and it was often a winter wonderland. The same in Maidstone, I live at about 250ft and in marginal events have driven down to the train station where there has been nothing on pavements etc when the road outside my house is covered. Even this year there has been nothing but I look across to the Downs and I see snow from 400ft upwards... In summary I think living at 250ft I have a better chance than sea level, but I would hardly call where I live "Higher Ground"..
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The Met Office seem to be a little out on a limb for this one, the other models aren't really giving signals of settling snow for Kent, either not cold enough or the precipitation intensity is only sufficient over East Anglia.. Interesting one to follow.
GFS has uppers way to high for one..
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Currently in Maidstone 230ft ASL:
5.0 °C, DP 4.9 °C
19mm of rain since midnight.
Surprised no yellow rain warning out for today tbh. Still think the Downs will get a covering late doors which will then freeze over.
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Big contrast in current temps across the South East currently. Dew points corresponding too
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Phenomenal amount of rainfall in Snowdonia and still continuing, especially in the Northern part of the area.. Likely to cause problems
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10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Little-to-no cloud cover too, which was always a worry. Definitely possible that some isolated activity could break out
Also an outside chance of the UK Temp record being broken
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There was talk of 38 degrees to break the cap, the way things are going it isn't going to be far off. 34.6 at Heathrow and zero cloud...
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The Metoffice have actually removed the warning. This is outrageous, in this part of Kent this is the worst rainful since 2013
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32 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Sorry if this has been repeated I haven’t checked the thread above as been working all day but WTF is going on . This rain I thought was forecast to run through the channel , I’ve just checked rain today and it’s reached far more north than that , And then to cap it off I see a yellow warning
has been issued from nowhere .
Today to my knowledge is a big fail , correct me if I’m wrong .
Hirlam was the only model to pick up on this yesterday. BBC did mention the pivot but the Met Office have been caught with their trousers down on this. Warning very late on. Trains already I'm a right mess. Just been through Tonbridge/Paddock Wood area, all fields totally flooded by standing water and still raining heavily.
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It is worth remembering that there are exceptionally high spring tides next week, so any big storms coming from the Atlantic could be something to keep an eye on from that perspective.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
One thing which doesn't correlate are certain news channels and warnings saying we are looking at widely 5-10cm of snow over areas such as Kent. The forecast is for nigh on 36 hours of continuous snowfall for many parts of Kent, I appreciate that will break into streamers/bands later on into Sunday/Monday, but if there as going to be a system bring rainfall which forecasts were describing as heavy and persistent in that time-frame I would be expecting well over an inch. This would equate to 25-30cm of snow quite widely and probably in the downs 40cm plus. There seems to be a gap in forecast versus modelled lying snow?