Supacell
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Posts posted by Supacell
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Both Rob McElwee and Tomasz Schafernaker are my faves as they appear to be quite enthusiastic about storms, and Tomasz is the first ever forecaster i have heard to mention 'tornadoes' in a forecast.
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Some interesting parameters showing up for an upper trough following the rain band on thursday. Some moderate wind shear and helicity icnreases the risk of some moderately severe storms developing.
Hi, does this forecast for tomorrow still stand?
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Looks like a chance of storms tomorrow across the northern half of the country on GFS. Met Office website is saying scattered light showers following the main rain band so little agreement between the two.
Are we likely to get a new thread for tomorrow???
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That would be Thursday the 26th, I bet we have a new thread by then Stuart
I bet any storms won't be as good as July 26th last year.
I'm not reckoning on much here, from current charts it looks like only Scotland, Ireland and the far N of England of the country will be affected on Thursday by storms.
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I'm surprised to see a meto weather warning for the East Midlands. Other than a little rain this morning its been dry with sunny spells and doesn't look like there is anything in the area on the radar either. There are some showers over N England but they are heading westwards in the opposite direction. :lol:
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Talk about Spelling when Tipsy! lol!
But yes Thunderstorm Chance good for Quite a few Areas in Central and Southern areas tomorrow! Further North may see Something but Central and Southern areas most likely tomorrow!
lol - i can normally spwll but seeing my keyboard in double - sorry mods!!!!!
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Just got back from the pub and a little tipsy - i need a thundertorm. It will make my week. Nothing tonight maybe tomorrow!!!!!! Come on little sotrm poos vome to daaddy!!!!!
Just got back from the pub and a little tipsy - i need a thundertorm. It will make my week. Nothing tonight maybe tomorrow!!!!!! Come on little sotrm poos vome to daaddy!!!!!mammatus you luky git - if i'd gone doen to cambridge it would've died a sudden death!!!!!!
Whats going n my post is a quote!!!!]
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Is there a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow at all, i know showers are going to be more widespread but CAPE looks a bit weak and i can't see anything that would indicate storms.
I think the storms should give those unfortunate flood victims down south a break and pop up here for a visit one day, i've not seen any decent storms since June 15th. Considering this is a freak year for storms i have seen much less activity than by this time last year and previous year - which were both 'dry' summers.
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I've taken some pics of The Lud and Louth Canal which is inches below the flood defences.
Monday looks dicey now too!
The 06z looks to take the system across southernmost counties so most of the severely flooded areas should hopefully miss it. Of course its still a worry as a slight positioning north could be a problem.
Thundery showers today across the SE surely can't help the situation
, although the very worst affected areas such as Herefordshire, Worcestershire may escape it today. -
What does the near future hold for us?
This summer has been diabolical thus far and it is primarily down to the fact that the jet stream that is normally to our north in the summer months has stayed over us. Usually this jet stream will shift north in summer to leave us under drier, warmer conditions and then spread south again in Autumn to put us into a pattern of Atlantic systems one after the other (something we are now seeing in summer) throughout winter.
Question is what will happen to the jet stream this winter? Assuming its not going to shift back north again during the summer (and there is no signs of it doing so) will it just sit where it is over the UK for the winter or move south and affect areas in Southern Europe - leaving us to its north?
Not wanting to create a sense of impending doom but i am concerned how we will cope if it was to sit over us all winter. A wet autumn and winter is normal in the UK but it usually comes off the back of a drier summer, what is going to happen if we have to endure a normal wet, mild winter on top of this apalling summer. Will the rivers be able to hold?
Alternatively, if the jet was to shift south as it would normally do - would this leave us with the extreme cold that would normally affect northern latitudes? Could we be on for the coldest winter for many years? Add to this that temperatures will not have had the summer warming we normally get, this winter could be one to remember for a different reason than floods.
I am no scientist and my thoughts may be ridiculous. This is why i am posting in the hope of getting a more experienced or knowledgeable opinion.
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Not much rain here, about 2 hours of moderate rain - no sign of thunder.
Whens my next chance to see a thunderstorm?
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Moderate rain here with no thunder or lightning. Main thing though is the wind, it is howling like a winter gale out there with trees bending over, must be gale force in the strongest gusts.
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Sitting here thinking whats all the fuss is about . By the time the rain gets up here its be lighter and it will be just plain old boring rain rather than anything to heavy/torrential.
It already is just boring rain, nothing thundery on it now. Unfortunately to get to you the system has to pass through the Derby and the Sheffield forcefield. By the time it gets to you it'll probably be a layer of altostratus and no rain.
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Recent reports of thunder from Leicester and Coventry. Surely it can't miss me if its heading NW, although the Derby forcefield will probably shred it into nothing more than a few spots of rain!
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Big drops of rain now. Please give me a storm
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Storm in full swing here now. Seems very close - frequent claps of thunder & flashes of lightning, rain becoming more severe. Fascinating stuff.
Good stuff. Storm appears to have gone through Luton, Milton Keynes and now Northampton so appears to following the M1!
If it keeps its energy then it should get somewhere just to my east - EM Airport maybe. I'll keep a watch.
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Lightning is dying now according to IOW detector - but from the posts on here that is clearly inaccurate.
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Hmmm...was that a rumble of thunder I heard in the distance? Hope so.
Where in Northamptonshire are you? I'm trying to plot points where the storms have been reported to try and gauge the direction its moving.
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A green sky is normally indicative of hail. Without seeing the sky i can't be sure but there may be hailstones around in your storms.
Looks very intense down London area now with the lightning detectors picking up a large amount of lightning. If its running on the convergence then should move up into the SE Midlands (Northamptonshire and surrounding areas) during the afternoon. If it does start to do this then i'll be taking a trip out to get a glimpse as it hits Leicestershire/Warwickshire early evening time.
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Seems to still be tracking west to east so only the southern Midlands are likely to be affected - south of Brum only
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Generally speaking thundery activity tends to increase during the afternoon hours. Will this be the case today or is something going to kill off the thundery stuff?
I'm still thinking that storms will break out following the convergence zone pushing north but i'm no expert so i could be wrong. If it does and the intensity holds then the storms may get close enough that i can take a drive out to see them this afternoon.
Derbyshire still has a met office warning but i feel it will be the next one to go.
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The bulk of the thundery activity appears to be in areas around the M4 pushing north and it seems like it is following this convergence line. The convergence line is pushing northwards and so areas under this have the highest chance of storms IMO. There is then more storms expected south of the M4 later as the sun comes out.
Have fun guys.
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Well i have to say i can't see why we have a 70% risk of disruption here and a flash warning out. Looks like all the heavy stuff is staying south of Brum. The rain appears to be making no northward progress at all, just East to West.
I'm looking to tomorrow for some decent storms as decent CAPE correlates with an area of wind convergence moving north. Very similar tomorrow to the set up back on the 15th June when i saw my first funnel cloud.
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Looks like sferics now across a lot of southern England. Could be an interesting day down there today. I'm probably too far north though to see anything from this.
, although the very worst affected areas such as Herefordshire, Worcestershire may escape it today.
. By the time the rain gets up here its be lighter and it will be just plain old boring rain rather than anything to heavy/torrential.
The Arizona Monsoon
in Storm Chase USA
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Thank you very much for the information AZresident. I am thinking seriously about going out there for a week during the 2008 monsoon season, although it depends on my finances (flights to the US aren't cheap
)