Supacell
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Posts posted by Supacell
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Well you may have a stormchaser from Derby joining you tonight if this comes off. Looks like i'll be needing the Red Bull and Pro Plus a plenty!!!
Before this i could get to see a storm here this afternoon - but there is just something so appealing about seeing lightning over the sea. I've never witnessed it b4. Could tonight be my night???
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Those storms over W France look to be still producing some sferics. Any idea what direction they are heading and whether they will still be producing lightning if and when they reach our shores?
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Check this out!!!
www.estofex.org
MCS for tonight anyone!!!
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BBC weather actually mentioned the 't' word this morning. I have to say it does look pretty good for storms today across the Midlands (John Hammond on East Midlands today said we can expect some nasty downpours with thunder) and there was even mention of thundery rain moving up into the SE overnight on the national forecast. An interesting 3 days ahead me thinks
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IMO the best place for storms tomorrow will be Leicestershire, Rutland, North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire and Northwest Norfolk. Its just South of the weather front in the warmer humid airmass (the front could be a trigger), there is wind convergence present (a secondary trigger) and decent CAPE to be tapped into. Negative LI also shows the air is unstable. Of course this could change if the weather front slows down or moves faster than expected.
This is not to say there won't be any elsewhere though, but if i was a betting man i'd say the areas indicated above are most likely.
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Anyone know if the CAPE over most of England tomorrow will get tapped into.
Tuesday looks good but i'm at work until 4pm and looks from the 12z that anything that develops will be dying away after 3pm so i'll probably miss out :blush:
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Skew-T for 18z in Cardiff quite interesting, with temperatures of around 21C it shows quite a modest amount of CAPE (500+J/KG), a LI of 0 and cloud tops expected to rise up to approx 23,000ft (if i'm reading it correctly).
Could be some storms then, especially if temperatures rise up higher than this.
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Has the CAPE Values remained at 900kj or more though? And actually stayed right up to the day of the event in itself?
I was driving up the A1 through Yorkshire on 19th June 2005 - there was CAPE of around 2000J/KG then and there was a monster of a storm going off just to my east. Caused flash flooding that was in the news that day.
The MCS that moved from Reading to S Wales on 10th May last year was under CAPE of about 1500J/KG - again a huge storm with golf ball hail.
It does happen, quite regularly. But i agree that this year thus far has followed the pattern you talk about.
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skew charts for CARDIFF for tomorrow dinner time are showing cape of 866
nigel
And this is with a temp of 22C. If temps in the afternoon are expected at 25C then CAPE may be even higher. How come GFS charts aren't showing anywhere near these values?
EDIT: Skew-T charts on netweather have CAPE much lower, i think it may be a mistake on weatheronline.
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Doubt there will be any storms now.
Maybe a chance for Wales tomorrow and then we are into the unknown.......
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Met Office have just released a weather warning for southern areas.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html
Nothing in terms of electrical activity yet though, suppose there is still time.
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Have noticed that there is one lightning strike on the netweather lightning detector near the South Coast.
IOW lightning detector has several strikes now showing up over Lincolnshire
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Another heavier shower has popped up around West Sussex. I am also thinking that during the evening, as cloud tops cool, there could be further development.
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Definite cap here still, but very vigorous convection below that. Temp flattening out at 26.1C with a dew point of 15.2C - awaiting the sea breeze front which normally arrives here around 16.00
I'm surprised the cap hasn't been broken with temps that high. Maybe the front you mention will help force those clouds up through the cap. I'm hoping they then move northwards towards the Midlands.
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Are cloud tops likely to rise high enough for the formation of thunderstorms?
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Decent CAPE with an area of wind convergence along the M4 then up into Wales could lead to storms later dependant on whether there is a cap in place and what temps we need to reach to break it.
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Lightning being shown over London and Essex - but doesn't tie in with any radar
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Travelled out to meet the storms in the SE and the bl**dy things turned and ran the other way out to sea.
I therefore want to apologise to all those in Norfolk and Lincolnshire that were expecting something today, i believe i may have scared them off.
Whens the next lot of storms going to arrive then?
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Lots of storms being reported around the SE and my hoping is that these will be heading NW in the next few hours. I will be leaving my abode in Derby shortly to attempt to meet them somewhere around the Norfolk/Lincolnshire border.
With all the excitement in the SE i almost missed that there is chances of further storms developing in Southern counties later today - as mentioned on the net weather homepage.
CAPE of around 500J/KG and a LI of -2 will be coupled with some fairly decent temperatures to spark storms off from around mid afternoon.
In actual fact GFS hold this area in higher likelihood than the SE - but i think that is a bit of an error seeing as there are already storms rumbling around Kent, Essex and Suffolk.
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I don't think its coming inland as much as the met office have predicted. I'm hoping for it to start moving more Westwards later.
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An amazing amount of lightning coming from this out to sea. Does anyone think it will hold once this system makes landfall - if so i may take a drive down towards the South East to see it.
Any reports from down there would be great. B)
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GFS have very low storm risk for the south east, this surprises me as it is quite clear now that the risk is there. Best chances look to be on the south coast just north of the IOW if GFS is to be believed. :lol:
lol Pinball. If it were then i bet Paul could charge a LOT more!!!
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We really need this low cloud to clear. Although having said that - if it looks good later i may consider a short drive out to the south east!
Met Office have warnings out now - up to 80mm of rain in parts, thats a huge amount!!!
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If there is lightning from this little system will it actually be visible with all this low cloud around?
Storms / convective general discussion
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Lightning fan - that picture is truly awesome, one of the best i've seen. You should enter that in the photography competition- it could even rival those that were taken by the guys who went to the States this year. Sorry Paul and crew! :unsure:
I am hoping that tonight i get my first ever south coast thunderstorm on camera. Latest BBC forecast didn't even mention anything about storms for tonight - but i tend to trust the experienced forecasters on this site more.