Leo97t
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BBC Weather
WWW.BBC.CO.UKLatest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...Very bizarre update
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is it just me who finds the gfs progression more natural seeming? maybe just wishful thinking
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gfs hasn't won a standoff in year idk what we were hoping for. I always make the same mistake!
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26 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
This is an interesting topic.
Here’s my take on it.
Best to worst :
2018: without a shadow of a doubt, the best extended summery spell since 1995, and the hottest and sunniest July since 2013. It just seemed to go on and on forever, and instead of starting off well in May, where in years past the weather would deteriorate into summer, the warm sunny settled weather remained a constant feature until mid August. The August was a little average in the second half, but it was welcomed after the long hot dry spell.
2013: some give it a bad rap for the poor June, but I thought London didn’t fare too badly, although it was noticeably chilly and clouded at times, after the dreadful cold May and winter that preceded it, the warmth arrived in the second half. July was a classic hot month, and the best weather we enjoyed since 2006, so that’s why it sticks out as a decent spell. August was less hot, but still sunny and warm. The best August since 2003.
2014: a good June and July, but let down by a poor August. Some classic thunderstorms in July. Not a classic like 2013, but still decent.
2017 : a hot June, after a cool start, and was even made better after a long warm sunny spell during late April into May. Also hot and sunny for the first half of July. Up until then, I would have ranked it as the best summer since 2014, but it went downhill after those July thunderstorms and never fully recovered, apart from the late August bank holiday, which was warm and sunny. A poor second half of summer.
2016: a good August on and off, but it was letdown for me by the longer periods of cloudy and cool weather in June, while late June was humid with storms, July was also cloudy and humid. It did improve towards the second half or July, but I noticed more cloudy conditions. A forgettable summer for me, but I was in the middle of a stressful move at the time, which probably affected my observations.
2015 : hands down the worst one. Dull and cool for the most part, although August had some nice sunny weekends if memory serves me well. But, it was mostly a cool cloudy summer. The best weather came in the spring and early autumn.
what about last year?
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Charts are looking very winterish synoptically- dare I say jan 1987 with a long feed from the east - glad the air is a little warmer this time!
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Since the revival of good summer in 2013, we've had an impressive run. I am pretty sure most will rank 2018 best and 2015 worse but I'd be interested to know what everyone else thinks with some justification
My personal rankings as as follows:
1. 2018 - unbrokenly settled until the 7th august - very remarkable and the memories become even fonder with the World Cup that summer It really was perfect and by the time the pattern broke down it seemed a nice change.
2. 2019 - an eclectic mix and for that reason I loved It - just when you thought it was gonna turn south we had a hot spell and it was perfectly spread throughout with a more mixed June and a very very good July although I appreciate this summer was much better for the SE than elsewhere. It was never hot for too long also but did deliver loads of interesting patterns and the late august spell was very notable - the first properly good august in the se since 2003
3. 2013 - June was very poor so it fails on that front but July was stunningly good and august was fine. Loads of useable weather.
4. 2016 - Very similar to 2019 but with the hot spells less hot and for a little less long. Very poor June spoils it going higher. August seemed brilliant after the abysmal run since 2005 but I think looking back it was a good month but not brilliant - only relatively so at the time
5. 2014 - July was quite good but pretty unexceptional - august was cold and autumnal. All in all though felt deeply forgettable
6. 2017 - Best June of the decade imo so was such shame about the abysmal second half of the summer which was dreadful and seldom exceeded 20 by august but some good storms in July. The June hot spell was remarkably good and felt like good things were to come but alas no!
7. 2015 - Very poor other than the hot spell 30th June to 2nd July. Largely cool and cloudy - not my bag.
Something I've noticed is how often the 10 days of June have yielded a fine spell with all except 2014 and 2016 having one
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17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
T198 make your own mind up
both look very promising - not quite sure what you are looking for
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well the gfs is suddenly looking remarkably good in the shorter term
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2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
Bcc height anomolies for the mid June to early July period
Atlantic continues to look dead in the water on almost any model despite the mixed outcomes for the uk
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GFS 06z is really positive with a strong ridging of the Azores and much lower heights over Greenland. I hope this theme continues
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I've never seen such bad runs for summer - I find it almost alarming how calm people seem to be about it they are utterly depressing. If the GFS 18z came off 100mm and 15 hours of sun to mid month likely with a ave max of 16 ? The Greenland northern Russian high combo defo the pattern of death for summer.
Fortunately I don't think this is the most likely scenario as I think the models are underplaying the build in fo the Azores initially so lets pray for some upgrades tomorrow
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Just now, Alderc said:
If the output carries on this way June will be the first month of the year with a below average CET.
The GFS beyond T180hrs goes from bad to worse with the UK stuck under the trough which is pinned in by blocking heights both east and west - this is scenario I'm most worried about!
Agreed and its not the gfs blowing up the Atlantic - it actually is a realistic progression. Maybe its an outlier we will have to see - I definitely wouldn't bet on the high with lp under in Europe set up to bring us heat - odds on it won't work
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GFS is absolutely diabolical - low gets stuck over us - this month may be going downhill very quick.
Although tbf UKMO does look better but we shall see - I would be using the EPS as the best guide at the moment
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The BBC mostly this morning is really positive but I'm not sure how seriously it should be taken
BBC Weather
WWW.BBC.CO.UKLatest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...-
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2 minutes ago, B87 said:
For London Heathrow, I make May 2020 the 4th warmest on record by mean temps after 1992, 1989 and 2018.
Max temperatures wise I think it was 1st
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Hasn't really been mentioned but the max temperatures for may were the 3rd highest on record in East Anglia (above 2018), 4th highest for SW England, 4th highest for the midlands, 2nd highest for E/NE England, 4th highest for Central/SE England. Really was a remarkable month temperature wise as well in England
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if the low had collapsed a little more into Spain that setup could have been very hot and dry but alas
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A warmer but very wet GFS 06z for everywhere bar the south east which looks miraculously dry given the lp domination although due to the lack of fronts and slackness probably actually wouldn't be too bad at ground level
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having looked through all the updated regional data series May 2020 may be the most statistically significant month in the entire catalogue bar December 2015 - the sunshine totals thrash any other month by unbelievable margins - even in the sunniest region on the south coast where 300 hours has been recorded before it increases the record by 30 hours. May never be beaten
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I remember once - I think April 2018? - actually had an upwards correction - is this the only example of this
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17 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Yep, the preliminary that we track ended up at 12.90, the adjusted value was 12.49.
All those 17 or so days were scaled back to 16.
I checked the values and while we had 10.4 after 15 days in our preliminary tracker, the actual value there was 9.9 C then 10.0 after 16 days. So they shaved off 0.4 from the first half and the second half equally.
It is what it is, certainly a month more memorable for drought and sunshine than its temperature anomaly which was significant but the month ranked tied 48th warmest with eight other years. It was 10th warmest since 1970.
How exact a science is corrections - it always seems very rough and seemingly random
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the 06z moves the low away quickly so isn't very unsettled
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
Background signals still point to an improvement after mid-June. Remember they drive the models, not the other way round. And the models will not start to pick this up yet.
Yes ik I just remember the unsettled spell was forecast to be a short interlude before a return to high pressure and it took almost 20 days - I would just be weary of forecasting too fast a return to settled conditions but I'm loving the positivity
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When it was looking like the Atlantic would stay dead I was optimistic for quick return to high pressure but I'm not too sure now. There looks like quite a lot of possible obstacles to this with Greenland blocking indicated to linger in the longer term, the Atlantic firing up and low pressure to our east. Although as we saw last year it is still possible to ditch this insidious pattern but I suspect most of June will be poor.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think weve been quite unlucky here with the trough dropping - I think that any properly settled weather may have to wait til 20th June+