JohnAcc

13.2 for me please. Rgds, John

Great Work Jackone. All to play for over the next few months Rgds, John

9.3 for me please

Here is the final list with the late entries added for Mar-07 predictions. 5.6: Kentish Man 5.7: Pudsey 5.8: PersianPaladin 5.8: pottyprof 5.8: Summer Blizzard 5.9: The Eye In The Sky 6.1: AtlanticFlameThrower **** Late Entry 1 day *** 6.1: SteveB 6.2: Chris L 6.2: osmposm 6.3: Mezzacyclone 6.3: Shugee 6.4: StormChaser1 6.5: Gallow Glass 6.5: Mark Bayley 6.5: Norrance 6.6: The Calm Before the Storm 6.7: David Snow 6.7: Flagpole 6.8: acbrixton 6.8: ChillyMilly 6.8: Duncan Mcalister 6.8: Matty M 6.8: Mr Data 6.8: Red Raven 6.8: Terminal Moraine 6.8: Winston 6.9: Cheeky Monkey 6.9: James Weather Jones 6.9: Snow-Man 2006 6.9: Stormmanic 6.9: Stratos Ferric 6.9: Theresnoway 6.9: VillagePlank 7.0: Optimus Prime 7.1: Blast From The Past 7.1: Megamoonflake 7.1: Stargazer 7.2: Bottesford 7.2: Dancc 7.2: phil n.warks 7.3: Glacier Point 7.3: Great Plum 7.3: Kold 7.3: Paul B 7.3: Thundery wintry showers 7.4: Reef 7.4: Stulondon 7.4: The Penguin 7.5: Beng 7.5: Joneseye 7.5: Snowyowl9 7.5: The PIT 7.6: Cymru 7.6: Mark H 7.6: Slipknotsam 7.6: Snowmaiden 7.6: WindSwept 7.7: Don 7.7: Paul Sherman **** Late Entry 2 days *** 7.8: Anti-Mild 7.8: JohnaAcc 7.8: Roger Smith 7.9: Magpie 7.9: SunDog 7.9: UkMoose 8.0: Somerset Squall 8.0: Vince 8.1: Lesta Snow 8.1: Parmenides **** Late Entry 2 days *** 8.2: Catch My Drift 8.3: West Is Best 8.4: Davehsug 8.5: jimmyay 8.7: Gray-Wolf 8.8: mk13 8.8: Paul Carfoot 9.0: eddie 9.0: Rollo 9.0: Stephen Prudence 10.0: Craig Evans Rgds, John

Here is the most recent list. Remember, there are penalties for entering late 5.6: Kentish Man 5.7: Pudsey 5.8: PersianPaladin 5.8: Summer Blizzard 5.8: pottyprof 5.9: The Eye In The Sky 6.1: SteveB 6.1: AtlanticFlameThrower ** 1 Day Late Entry ** 6.2: Chris L 6.2: osmposm 6.3: Mezzacyclone 6.3: Shugee 6.4: StormChaser1 6.5: Gallow Glass 6.5: Mark Bayley 6.5: Norrance 6.6: The Calm Before the Storm 6.7: David Snow 6.7: Flagpole 6.8: acbrixton 6.8: ChillyMilly 6.8: Duncan Mcalister 6.8: Matty M 6.8: Mr Data 6.8: Red Raven 6.8: Terminal Moraine 6.8: Winston 6.9: Cheeky Monkey 6.9: James Weather Jones 6.9: Snow-Man 2006 6.9: Stormmanic 6.9: Stratos Ferric 6.9: Theresnoway 6.9: VillagePlank 7.0: Optimus Prime 7.1: Blast From The Past 7.1: Megamoonflake 7.1: Stargazer 7.2: Bottesford 7.2: Dancc 7.2: phil n.warks 7.3: Glacier Point 7.3: Great Plum 7.3: Kold 7.3: Paul B 7.3: Thundery wintry showers 7.4: Reef 7.4: The Penguin 7.4: Stulondon 7.5: Beng 7.5: Joneseye 7.5: Snowyowl9 7.5: The PIT 7.6: Cymru 7.6: Mark H 7.6: Slipknotsam 7.6: Snowmaiden 7.6: WindSwept 7.7: Don 7.8: Anti-Mild 7.8: JohnaAcc 7.8: Roger Smith 7.9: Magpie 7.9: SunDog 7.9: UkMoose 8.0: Somerset Squall 8.0: Vince 8.1: Lesta Snow 8.2: Catch My Drift 8.3: West Is Best 8.4: Davehsug 8.5: jimmyay 8.7: Gray-Wolf 8.8: mk13 8.8: Paul Carfoot 9.0: eddie 9.0: Rollo 9.0: Stephen Prudence 10.0: Craig Evans Rgds, John

Here is the list as it stands at the moment. I will keep a record of late entries. I'm hoping to pull some points back on WIB once the Feb CET becomes official. 5.6: Kentish Man 5.7: Pudsey 5.8: Summer Blizzard 5.8: PersianPaladin 5.9: The Eye In The Sky 6.1: SteveB 6.2: Chris L 6.3: Mezzacyclone 6.3: Shugee 6.4: StormChaser1 6.4: Stratos Ferric 6.5: Mark Bayley 6.5: Gallow Glass 6.5: Norrance 6.6: The Calm Before the Storm 6.7: Flagpole 6.7: David Snow 6.8: Mr Data 6.8: Terminal Moraine 6.8: Winston 6.8: acbrixton 6.8: Matty M 6.8: ChillyMilly 6.8: Red Raven 6.8: Duncan Mcalister 6.9: Snow-Man 2006 6.9: VillagePlank 6.9: Stormmanic 6.9: James Weather Jones 6.9: Cheeky Monkey 6.9: Theresnoway 7.0: Optimus Prime 7.1: Blast From The Past 7.1: Megamoonflake 7.1: Stargazer 7.2: Dancc 7.2: Bottesford 7.2: phil n.warks 7.3: Kold 7.3: Great Plum 7.3: Paul B 7.3: Glacier Point 7.4: Reef 7.4: The Penguin 7.5: Snowyowl9 7.5: The PIT 7.5: Beng 7.5: Joneseye 7.6: Snowmaiden 7.6: WindSwept 7.6: Cymru 7.6: Mark H 7.7: Don 7.8: Roger Smith 7.8: Anti-Mild 7.8: JohnaAcc 7.9: SunDog 7.9: Magpie 7.9: UkMoose 8.0: Vince 8.0: Somerset Squall 8.1: Lesta Snow 8.2: Catch My Drift 8.3: West Is Best 8.4: Davehsug 8.5: jimmyay 8.7: Gray-Wolf 8.8: mk13 8.8: Paul Carfoot 9.0: Rollo 9.0: Stephen Prudence 9.0: eddie 10.0: Craig Evans Rgds, John

7.8 for me. rgds, John

He TEITS, I hope your right. I'm based in the West Midlands and it would feel so cruel at T+48 for this to go pear shaped. However, I'm fully aware that there is every chance of this! Rgds, John

5.8 for Me. Rgds, John

The current top 40 using philip eden's Dec CET of 7.4 upto 20th Dec is as follows: # Vrn Name 1 -0.10 Derby4Life 2 -0.30 Stephen Prudence 3 -0.30 Paul 4 -0.40 Weatherwise 5 -0.60 West Is Best 6 -0.70 Scorcher 7 -0.70 Snowray 8 -0.80 JohnaAcc 9 0.90 Rojer J Smith 10 -0.90 ChillyMilly 11 -1.00 StormChaser1 12 -1.00 Tom Partis 13 -1.10 BFTP 14 -1.10 Chris L 15 -1.10 GuitarNutter 16 -1.20 Cheeky Monkey 17 -1.20 Gavin P 18 -1.20 Osmposm 19 -1.30 Stargazer 20 -1.30 Nigelonline 21 -1.30 Somerset Squall 22 -1.40 Evo 23 -1.40 The Pit 24 -1.40 Reef 25 -1.40 Norrance 26 -1.40 Senior Ridge 27 -1.50 SnowyOwl9 28 -1.50 Anti-Mild 29 -1.50 Mr Data 30 -1.60 SteveB 31 -1.60 The Penguin 32 -1.70 PersianPaladin 33 -1.70 Paul Sherman 34 -1.70 Joneseye 35 -1.80 Summer Blizzard 36 -1.80 Don 37 -1.80 Jackone 38 -1.80 Stratos Ferric 39 -1.90 Cymru 40 -1.90 S4lancia

Hi Chris, There have been 42 occurences of this since the CET records began. In recent times it happened in 1993, 1988, 1985, 1974, 1971, 1965, 1942, 1934, 1923, 1921, 1919, 1918, 1915, 1912, 1911 and 1910. The following Jan CET's was in reverse order (from 1993 backwards) 5.3, 6.1, 3.5, 6.8, 3.9, 2.9, 4.9, 4.5, 4.7, 3.7, 5.2, 2.9, 7.5, 4.5, 3.6 and 3.8. Therefore the average Jan CET in the last 100 years where the Dec CET > Nov CET was 4.61. Rgds, John

This is the TOP 40 league table as we stand today. The December CET MTD figure of 8.2 is taken from philip eden's site. All to play for still with Tiny Bill dropping off the pace after a frantic start. Rojer's made his dash for the finish line but will it be too soon......................................... # Vrn Name 1 0.10 Rojer J Smith 2 -0.90 Derby4Life 3 -1.10 Stephen Prudence 4 -1.10 Paul 5 -1.20 Weatherwise 6 -1.40 West Is Best 7 -1.50 Scorcher 8 -1.50 Snowray 9 -1.60 JohnaAcc 10 -1.70 ChillyMilly 11 1.70 TinyBill 12 -1.80 StormChaser1 13 -1.80 Tom Partis 14 -1.90 BFTP 15 -1.90 Chris L 16 -1.90 GuitarNutter 17 -2.00 Cheeky Monkey 18 -2.00 Gavin P 19 -2.00 Osmposm 20 -2.10 Stargazer 21 -2.10 Nigelonline 22 -2.10 Somerset Squall 23 -2.20 Evo 24 -2.20 The Pit 25 -2.20 Reef 26 -2.20 Norrance 27 -2.20 Senior Ridge 28 -2.30 SnowyOwl9 29 -2.30 Anti-Mild 30 -2.30 Mr Data 31 -2.40 SteveB 32 -2.40 The Penguin 33 -2.50 PersianPaladin 34 -2.50 Paul Sherman 35 -2.50 Joneseye 36 -2.60 Summer Blizzard 37 -2.60 Don 38 -2.60 Jackone 39 -2.60 Stratos Ferric 40 -2.70 Cymru

I took the list as it stood at 23:50 on the 30th November 2006 as per the initial rules. I think it's for GP to decide the final rules for Dec-06. I don't mind either way. Rgds, John

If I take the Dec-06 CET from Philip Eden's Site from the 1st Dec - 5th Dec (9.8C) then here is the league table (top 30) as we stand today. # = Position Vrn = Difference between Predicted CET and Current MTD CET I'll keep this updated as we move through the month to add a bit of fun to it Dec 2006 CET Predictions # Vrn Name 1 0.10 TinyBill 2 -1.50 Rojer J Smith 3 -2.50 Derby4Life 4 -2.70 Stephen Prudence 5 -2.70 Paul 6 -2.80 Weatherwise 7 -3.00 West Is Best 8 -3.10 Scorcher 9 -3.10 Snowray 10 -3.20 JohnaAcc 11 -3.30 ChillyMilly 12 -3.40 StormChaser1 13 -3.40 Tom Partis 14 -3.50 BFTP 15 -3.50 Chris L 16 -3.50 GuitarNutter 17 -3.60 Cheeky Monkey 18 -3.60 Gavin P 19 -3.60 Osmposm 20 -3.70 Stargazer 21 -3.70 Nigelonline 22 -3.70 Somerset Squall 23 -3.80 Evo 24 -3.80 The Pit 25 -3.80 Reef 26 -3.80 Norrance 27 -3.80 Senior Ridge 28 -3.90 SnowyOwl9 29 -3.90 Anti-Mild 30 -3.90 Mr Data

Quite interesting to look at the predictions above with the mean and median returning 5.1, the mode returning 4.4, the 1st quartile returning 4.4, the 3rd quartile returning 5.9 and a standard deviation of 1.33. It would appear that the NW community favour a below average month! Anyone for a nice chilled pint of Cold Bias? I will make my punt for a CET of 6.6 as I believe any upstream changes appear to be stalling this year therefore not affecting our shores until the first 2 weeks of Jan 2007. Rgds, John

Hi Canadiancoops, Ice crystals can form under clear skies and light winds as the temp drops. As they flutter downward they can glitter in the sun or moon light and are commonly called 'diamond dust'. I think they form at temps below -18C as hexagonal plates and or columns.

Hi all, I thought it would be useful if we add an on-line tutorial that people can refer to from time to time. Every so often I will post a basic guide to enhance peoples knowledge of the various influences on our climate. OK, following on from TM's question I will give an overview of what happens in the upper air. Overview summary 1 - The upper air We can split the upper air into 3 layers. The troposphere which is between 8-17km, the stratosphere which is between 17-45km and the mesosphere which is greater than 80km. We can then further split the troposhere into 2 sections which are the upper layer (also known as the free atmosphere) and the lower, or planetary boundary layer Within the boundary layer air movements and temperatures are affected major weather patterns but also by localised effects (How the air reacts to the planets surface) Above the Boundary Layer, winds are directed by the Coriolis Effect working in conjunction with pressure-gradients. The Coriolis Effect is the force exterted by the Earth's rotation, and in weather terms its importance is the effect it has on the atmosphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, it causes airmasses to be deflected to the right - the opposite happens in the Southern Hemisphere. Thus, in the Northern Hemisphere, warm and cool airmasses around a developing low-pressure centre start to circulate in an anticlockwise (cyclonic) direction. So the Coriolis Effect is what makes depressions rotate; on a larger scale it helps to maintain the prevailing west-to-east airflow around our hemisphere. In upper-air meteorology, pressure-patterns are as important as they are down here at the surface. Atmospheric pressure is simply an expression of the force applied by a column of air upon a fixed point of known area: p=F/A where p = pressure, F = force and A = area. The greater the altitude, the lower the atmospheric pressure, hence the rarified air encountered in high mountain ranges. In upper-air meteorology, goings-on aloft are observed with satellites and directly sampled by weather-balloons carrying measuring instruments. The results of the balloon ascents, called soundings, are plotted on charts at several pressure-levels (925hpa (900m) 850hpa (1500m), 700hpa (3000m), 500hpa (5750m) and 300hpa (9500m)) Pressure at any given height can change quite drastically as weather-systems move through. This goes on at the surface too. In the case of the UK, as an Atlantic low-pressure system is replaced by a large high-pressure area, the pressure over a few days at sea-level can change from maybe 970 hPa to 1030 hPa. The same applies aloft, but unlike surface charts, where the data are plotted in terms of pressure, the upper air data are plotted in terms of geopotential. Geopotential is the height above sea-level where the pressure is, say, 850, 500 or 300 hPa, and is measured in Geopotential Metres (gpm or gpdm). In an area of high pressure (an anticlyclone) the 850hPa level will be at a higher altitude than in an area of low pressure, so that although a different method of measurement is being used in the upper air, the resulting charts will look just like the sea-level pressure charts in terms of distribution of high and low pressure systems. So they make it possible to examine forecast data for the upper troposphere as well as close to the surface. Finally, just as surface air has various physical properties (warm or cool, moist or dry etc), the properties of the upper air are important too. While convection - the vertical transport of heat and moisture - is obviously important to the storm-chaser working at the surface, the horizontal transport of upper air with certain proprties into an area is also of great importance. For example, storm formation in an unstable lower troposphere is markedly encouraged if cold dry air is present aloft. The process by which this cold, dry air moves horizontally into an area is known as cold air advection. Advection is simply the horizontal transport of air - and with that air comes a set of physical properties including temperature, moisture, stability and so on.