Gray-Wolf

Being 50 I also lived through that period as a quite inquisitive child/young adult and remember no such 'to do' about ice ages? Did we have one 'horizon' programme about it? I do recall endless documentaries about how human beings were trashing the natural world and all the lovely images I was watching would be consigned to history as the animals fell prey to human ecological mismanagement ( due to greed for natural resources ). As such I came away knowing that mankind was doing untold harm to his home. By the 80's this was augmented with climate change, acid rains and Ozone holes.

How often has the earth been in a glacial cycle (like our current one) and how did we arrive at our current glacial epoch???? What have CO2 levels been like over the past 65 million years and what level were they at when we entered the first of the ice ages???? How low did CO2 need to drop before we saw Antarctica first start to build it's ice caps???? somehow I think many folk will be smirking right now at your apparent willingness to look a tad uniformed S.I. ........

I'm sorry S.I. but I'm out of this thread. Your attitude toward data ,facts and field experts stinks (IMHO). Facts are facts and if you dismiss them that is your choice but it does not alter the truth.

As Pete says our orbital forcings should be allowing the far north to cool? This should lead to albedo changes and the loss of vegetation so reduction in CO2 inducing further cooling and so on. This process takes many thousands of years to complete and so us being beyond 'maximum' in the current glacial cycle would have suggsted cooling and , this time around orbital forcings had the far north as the 'blighted' point on the planet. As it is observations show that cooling had begun but stopped around the turn of the last century. If you remember the old C&E section I posted up an E Mail from one of the NSIDC scientists who is a world leader in orbital forcings that basically said we look likelyto now skip the next two precessional cycles (46,000yrs) of cooling due to the GHG forcings now in the atmosphere.

Let's bear in mind that some Profs see low ice as influencing our jet positioning and that last summers further jolt down in ice levels ( by a similar amount to 07's losses) would then demand a change in the patterns we have seen occur since 07'? We ( UK) have had it pretty dire over summer since 07' but this year appears to have broken that mould? Is there a link? I have suggested ( and opened threads in C&E) that some impacts must be seen from the latest ice min drop. Check out the thread and see what you feel has occurred in the N.Hemisphere thus far?

Never say never! I had the 'joy' of experiencing 'something', in my early twenties that turned my life (understanding) around! I'll not bore you with the details suffice to say I took the 'normal route' of childhood theist, to atheist, to agnostic (how can you be other without 'proof'? ) to confused ( erring on the side of personal experience?). I'm not going to preach but much the same as 'Yung' when questioned about 'spirituality' I 'know' (personal experience) so don't have to 'believe'. 'Science' has brought us to the 'Multiverse' where Gravity is nothing but a 'leach out' from a parallel dimension so why not a 'brame' where 'soul' leaches out from into our dimension? Why not an 'Otherworld' (as our forebears believed in) so close to our brame that 'physical conditions' (mental or physical) allow 'leach out' ( as our gravity permanently does) at times that we 'see' and interpret? I am not fool enough to try and explain 'where' I popped out to, I am but a sliver of the 'Me' I witnessed there, so the words do not exist to convey the 'There' , nor the Science to explain it? Fools hide behind the world they can 'Explain' ( and deny anything they cannot) and call it 'Reality'. Old 'Religions' claimed we could not utter the name of God, I think we do not have the level of intellect to utter the name of God? I could spend an Eternity trying to convey the 'Feel' of where I went and only give you the merest 'glimpse' of what I struggled to understand? Suffice to say the Beatles were not far wrong with there " I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together"...... That said if folk only embraced that ALL is seen , witnessed (not judged), by everyone closest to us, and that , in the end we will face ourselves (no hiding anything there eh?) at the end of this 'mortality' then maybe we would find a better 'peace' in ourselves? If you were able to live your life in full knowledge that every thought, deed and action was to be brought before you ( and then assessed in your own morality), once it was over, then would you not either be more accepting of who you are or more moral in your dealings with others? ​If where I'm coming from has the semblance of the greater reality then what other 'other realms/dimensions? Could there not be 'realities' interfacing with ours in a similar way? Would we not be 'Ghosts' /demons' to those realities? And what of 'Good' and 'Bad'? What if 'entities' from other-worlds/realities enjoyed the 'feel' of conflict/sadness/Hate? What if , like parasites, they attaches to the vulnerable ( at an age that there was no question) and 'guided' those folk into situations that gave them a good feed? We might use psychoanalytical terms for such but what if such 'possession' drove abhorrent behaviours? Just because our 'Science' today cannot measure such is it safe to dismiss it? Before night vision technology you would be speaking your truth to say 'nothing is happening' in the darkness around you but now science open that door you can see that your 'old truth' was not as it seemed ( due to an inability to 'see/measure' what was really there?).

In response to the importance of 'eckman pumping' from events like the LP ( now fading?) in the central basin Chris Reynolds brings us this; http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=97670&tid=3622&cid=44107 it appears it may well play a role in such events? (and an increasing one as snow/ice declines further?) With a 'seasonal pack' it may well be the source of the 'overturning event' that helps lead up to a year round ice free Arctic Ocean?

But where's the fun in that Pete? It's like Jengo (or something similar) , the fun is trying to 'understand' the rapidly changing situation and 'predicting' how , and when, the tower will fall? Something truly phenomenal is occurring (and in those few span years we have allotted as a 'life') that no human being has witnessed before? If we actually grabbed the crucial piece that has the tower fall then isn't it fascinating guessing just where ,and how, the tower will tumble? There is nothing 'personal' in all of this just a system working out of kilter and , as with the climate system as a whole, I find it fascinating? Like Hurricanes and tornadoes there is a majesty all there own in their functioning..... the 'horror' comes when you realise the 'human ' impact such majesty might be inflicting on the humans below? As it is Koch and co. give us an excuse not to care and just watch unhindered ( if it's all just 'Natural' then what the hell do we need worry about? we did not inflict this on the poor blighters impacted... if not? well then that's your own moral 'choice' on how it makes you feel?) The start of the true Arctic Basin melt season is on us now and both last years low, and the impact that has on ice age/distribution/thickness, will slowly reveal it's impacts on just how the season will progress. My belief is that the ice is now so degraded that a sub 07' year (even without those amazing coincidences of weather and export????!!!) is the most probable outcome (who'd have thunk it eh?!!!) and on previous years 'watching' we are bound to see something 'new' and revealing about how the ice now acts (I think even BFTV is a convert to the 'novel' working of the Arctic with the 'old currency' of how the basin reacts now defunct?). We have the melt out of the CAA to witness over the next 7 weeks and isn't that a hoot? All those years spent trying to ply a route through (and the winter lay overs) and now folk take small boats around the basin in a single season!!! Enjoy the spectacle my friend.....what else can you do?

Cryosat2 confirmed the accuracy of the PIOMAS observations and so helps validate the accuracy of the methodology throughout both their operation and their 'hindcasts' of how ice volumes used to be. If you have no problem with the cryosat 2 data then surely you also accept the validity of the PIOMAS data? Nobody is trying to 'hoodwink' you as to the state of the Arctic sea ice , why would they?, it is a very serious issue with potentially catastrophic ramifications for the whole planet. We may disagree on why ice level began to wane (in a period where the far north should be gently cooling , and in fact was up until the late 1800's, due to the orbital position of the planet currently) but the 'step change' that occurred through the 80's and 90's left the ice prone for the extent/area drop we saw in 07' ( or is there some other reason we lost the majority of ice volume over that period?). Since that time the low ice volume has meant a rapid loss of the last of the 'old' ,core arctic ice( ice older than ten years and of office block dimensions) to a point where now most all ice is younger than 6 years old (and the majority is first year ice) with an average thickness not much in excess of 2m? This is not a 'pedants' game. The changes are so immense that surely only a fool would try and belittle them? Anyhow , back to the 'new Arctic' and what we can expect of the ice through the rest of the melt cycle. The last years , post 07', seem to point to a part redundancy of the 'old Arctics' workings. Weather that once nurtured ice now actively destroys it ( in the past a 3m loss in thickness would not trouble the core ice...now such a loss leaves open water). Areas that used to be 'nurseries' for paleocryistic ice now consume it. So much is now different, due to age and thickness, that we only have a very short period of reference to compare conditions with (so as to try and predict the rest of our melt season). Folk are trying to find solace in the 'slow start' to this season this time but I would suggest that the 'placement' of the ice, combined with a 'post 2012' circulation regime, has lead to us suffering a 'different' start to the season and nothing more. As BFTV has pointed out ice volume is at record low levels suggesting that even a season more favourable to ice retention than the past 5 years will leave us at troubleingley low volumes come Sept? EDIT: 4? LOL.

This thread looks at the melt season of the Arctic ice...end of? I'd agree some folk look a tad confused by this notion but 'ice' is a 'thing' that , along with other 'things' is best seen in 'Volume'? With this measure oddities like'the 4 yr olds quandary' do not get in the way (offer a four year old a toffee rolled really thin so it looks 'big' and two toffees rolled together and see which they choose......most of us grow out of this by 7yrs old?) By the last measure we had less ice than ever before recorded (yes...since we started to record and 'yes' only in the way we have accepted to calculate the volume). We are now into the most active part of the melt season and so from now on one would expect to get regular 'century' losses in extent/area as the warmth of the Northern summer builds and impacts the area within the Arctic circle? As for 'only the northern Hemisphere? Well that's where the Arctic is???

I've postulated for many years that a portion of the folk 'denying' the extent of impacts from AGW do so through fear of the 'plotted' consequences. As such they grab onto anything that appears to give them the 'safety' of those predictions of future impacts being in error (esp. if young enough to have their lives blighted by such impacts)? The first stage of grieving is 'denial' and folk will physically lean towards denying the loss of the person (both consciously and unconsciously)...I've known folk set places , and cook for, the deceased over six months after the loss of the person? I'm sure K.L. means well and is honestly mystified by why folk should pay attention to a thing the "so isn't happening"? Anyhow, as noted JAXA is now starting to plot the recent losses and , once conditions allow better 'vision' the sensors will pick up on what we can discern through low cloud/Fogand we will see a few big adjustments to extent/area over the next week?

We used to be able to predict the season Pete? In winter..Cold, in summer... hot. Did we not see one eastern Scottish town match winter solstice temps with summer solstice temps two or three years ago??? If you note Corrinth posts you'll know how Austria was over Chrimbo and such temps would suit me for June in my local??? Anyhow what I was 'angling' at with the thread is that the likes of prof Francis see the low ice impacting N.Hemisphere Jet patterns esp. after 07's low. From then up until last year ice was at a similar level come Sept but last summer saw a similar scale of a drop that Ms Francis sees as a drop off for recent Jet 'meanderings'. With such a large drop off last Sept I thought any impacts that appear to 'intensify' those patterns might go some way to proving her findings? As it is I am seeing marked differences (though very early days yet) in the Jet's distribution so far this year? We know things are far more complex than this in the 'weather system' but anything further agreeing with what Jennifer postulates must make it easier to short term plan seasons (even if it is to expect 1 of 2 extremes?) The 'dropping off' of the Jet , across the Atlantic, is now becoming apparent with periods of wind speed so low as to not appear on the plots with only 'streaks' at ridge/trough portions of the river of air? This in turn must lead to more settled conditions below (doesn't it?) with a drop off in the number of depressions crossing over us (and duration of stay) that we have become accustomed to over the last 6 summers? Again I'd say the loss of ice last year will lead to an even lower temp/pressure grad once the snow/ice responds to summer warmth so the back end of last years perturbations will be impacted by a stronger (earlier?) impact this summer/Autumn? Imagine a swing in motion. Last years 'push' is still swinging the thing so how much energy , this year, is needed to have the swing at the same height a last years peak? I'd suggest less energy is needed so that if we end up with more we stand to see even more extreme reactions to this 'energy'. The same will then apply to next year with even less energy needed to hit the same height? The comes a point that ice is so impacted that by late July we see ice levels similar to last summers min. How much more energy gets harvested at that point? Anyhow. More dry , settled conditions here (hosepipe bans by Aug anyone??) as the continental H.P.'s interact with the 'standard' H.P. locations in the rest of the N.Hemisphere and an alteration to the areas 'creating' low pressure. More of the Jet not being on the plots and higher ridges where we see it (inside the Arctic Basin?).

As BFTV muted Sparks, it will be the N.Hemisphere monthly temp that shows us how things are? If it comes up 'average' then any wealth of cold extremes must be being balanced by warm extremes and what does this tell us? If we are in a period of climate extremes it would serve us well to know what is driving them?Agriculture and energy suppliers would prefer to have some idea of the ballpark the operate in than run blind each season? Back to the ice. The drop off appears to be underway and I would expect it to now continue as normal for June melt? The scale of losses will be tempered by the state of the pack but the 'temps' will now, and for the next few months, be so as to see losses somewhere in the basin that outweigh 'gains (in area and volume). Due to the way things are stacked 'Extent' may be a bit of a see-saw for a while though? Eh???

As things stand it appears to be the chasers that save lives by bringing info to the areas about to be impacted. As such we have not only lost these guys but their loss from the arena puts more lives at risk. Any death is sad but those of life savers more so.....

Now , now my little pedant Pete! The pattern of errant Jet stream that has lead to the 'washout' summers here (and flooding) and the U.S. East coast/Greenland High that impacted the rainfall/temps there? At the start of the thread I suggested that last year low ice must have placed an added jolt into the mechanics that brought us the post 07' patterns (if you credit low ice with impacts on the N.Hemisphere circulation?) and that impact will have had 'knock on' effects since (as that 'Jolt/perturbation' subsides). Should last years low ice also lead to an earlier drop in ice cover/snow cover this summer then those impacts will ramp up further? As it is I'm seeing a lot more H.P. across the Atlantic and NW Europe than I've been used to seeing this past 6 years? Have you noted anything similar?

Of course the leads iced back over as the shattered ice spread out but do you think 2 month old FY ice is a good substitute for Sept born ice (or older?)? To me it's a similar thing as looking at the Bering ice factory upping extent/area in late winter and crying 'recovery' as the numbers rival 'old' averages? This 'infill ice' is both thin and weak (and packed full of brine) and , as we are currently seeing, has no structural strength. As such will we not see and disturbance , like the current low, play havoc with the pack leading to open waters much further north than we are accustomed to seeing this time of year? Will such a change in albedo impact central ice further or will that open water allow for compaction events leading to area losses? Will the open water melt out the ice edges (esp. the 2 month ice)? Will open spaces lead to attrition and further reduction in floe size and the all important surface area to mass ratio? I thought it was bad since 08' with folk holding up any slight change as 'recovery' but when we have even less volume than ever before haven't we seen enough to know what comes next (over an 'average summer')? What is most sad is that even a summer colder than the past 6 will still probably lead to a year sub 07's low and that 'low' was due to a 'perfect storm' of weather and export. It was bad enough 'average summers challenging ,and then breaking 07's low without now facing the prospect of a cold Arctic year still doing what 7 years ago took extreme favourable conditions???

As June records fall in May in Scandiwegian lands?? Most of the temps we have seen across the N.Hemisphere are 'average' temps for those regions but they have had a run of abnormal warm since the 07' ice drop. Are we not seeing the start of the post 12' ice drop influence or is it just solar max mixing things up? As for 'near vertical drops' (or 'Flash melting') I do think the ice condition will lead to some of that as areas of similar thickness 'blink out' in later July/early Aug but, for now, we will start to see rapid losses begin to occur over the coming week. The low snow anoms across much of Eurasia that we now see will lead to a rapid warm up of those regions so look for the melt of coastal East Siberian/Kara/Barentsz over the next 4 weeks. Looking at the Modis piccies I'd think we'll see a lot of 'corrections' over the coming week as the H.P. sets up and clear skies allow sensors a better look at the ice? I'd also suggest that we'll see some action across the CAA as the current central basin low migrates and deepens there. Let's see how the graphs look this time next week eh?

I'm surprised that so few folk are noting the different year we are having so far??? Not just here but across many parts of the N.Hemisphere? Was last years record low not the 'start' of this new chain of events (as 07' was to the previous 'stuck' weather types areas had been plagued with?)

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n6/full/nclimate1804.html Well that's cleared that up then! Planting a few trees will not offset your fossil fuel emmisions (but will help reduce the land impacts we have caused).

I don't think anyone ever says "It's all AGW" P.P.? What appears is that 'natural variation' continues ,as ever, but some other forcing is allowing the Arctic to fall beyond other Basin wide changes ( remember we were in a cool down across the north P.P. and that 'Orbital forcing' should still be growing but it stopped, and reversed, at the end of the 1800's). So we are looking not only for a forcing above and beyond the 'natural' we see in the records but also something powerful to overcome the 'Orbital forcing' as well as the 'natural variation'? (this is why it is a 'double worry' as once this , to you, 'Mystery forcing' percolates down into the areas where the orbital forcing was not impacting temps what will we see occur there????)

Or someone growing older and spending more of the 'precious' sun time basking instead of running around doing stuff (not noticing 'shade time')?

There seems to be a body of folk 'denying' that what we observe across the basin is nothing 'out of the ordinary' and merely a product of 'natural forcings' that have impacted the basin throughout human history. This body of folk appear to believe that a few cool summers across the basin will undo the damage to the old workings of the Basin and return things to normal over the course of a few years (well within the 'perfect storm' cycle of 10 to 20 yrs). At present those folk are gaining cheer from the 'extent' figures this early melt season and neglecting to mention the anomalous ice distribution , compared to the noughties, that the season began with. Throughout the noughties we mainly saw low ice in Baffin and Barentsz (and Kara?) with higher 'peripheral' ice amounts Okhotsk/Bering. This has added into the initial losses, aided and abetted by the AO's change of heart (keeping the cold inside the basin?) leaving extent figures ,for the time of year, above the noughties average? As the season progresses Barentsz/Baffin/Kara will become ice free and 'normal/average (or worse?)' extent figures will return. You may recall me warning this sites adherents to the above about the folly of parading high/average extent figures, come winters end, when most of the excess was positioned outside the basin. Over winter we have seen ice 'drift' into these regions (only for the central ice to re-grow). with the same synoptics in place but no ice formation these synoptics will lead to melt out of the peripheral regions and an opening up of the central pack. The early , and long lived. fracture event has compounded this by leaving the larger part of the pack in small floes cemented by late grown infill. As such i would expect to see ice losses around the periphery drop as normal but the central ice produce a lot more 'open water/leads' for this early in the season? The impact that peak insolation will have on a pack so stacked is open to conjecture but i suggest it will not lead to ice retention?

Hi sparks! June will act as June always does? When majority ice was 3m+ and perennial then we'd still have a lot of 'change' come July 1st. Average melt rates over the same period today (with predominantly 2m FY ice) will naturally leave us with a Swiss cheese pack. Current Synopitics hint at this impacting the central region badly this June and so I'm expecting a badly impacted central region allowing much more movement of the peripheral ice (re-compressing the central region?) so a very 'Topsy Turvey' extent couple of months once this central region is done with? My other point (earlier) is that we've needed wait for the 'Laptev Bite' to appear to see the central ice impacted in recent years (and not just nibbled away at the edges?) so how will this novel event now impact the pattern of ice loss? Will it enable peak insolation full access to the weakened ice in the central region region and the open water we are now seeing appearing there (due to the rotational stresses of the low)? EDIT: Thinking on it could this be the first year we see the DMI 80N not stick to freezing over the summer period??? How will the Deniers explain this if ice losses only 'equal ' last years efforts (ish)?

Yeah BFTV, The 'eckman pumping' gave me reason to head scratch esp. the 'scale' of the effect? I was trying to highlight the pack fragility and that we may well see a pool of low concentration ice/open water before most coastal areas are clear of ice? If you wanted to most efficiently melt out, via top melt, the pack then starting in the middle under the highest solar input and then working to the outer pack would be a novel but effective approach? In 4 or 5 days we might well see a lot of open water where the pack has been ripped apart and if the next low camps in a similar position, and does a similar job, we will have a very 'darkened' central region over the solstice? We will also now start to see the high temps that we currently do across NW Europe and into Eurasia seeping into the basin. If we still look to be holding onto the ice by June's end i will start to favour us ending higher than last summer (area) but I find it hard to believe that the next 3 weeks will see some very high melt rates? Hopefully we'll have had lots of 'Recovery ' type posts from all the usual suspects by then ?

Wipneus, over on Nevens, is churning out the AMSR2 data in image form and you can see in his latest (above) what the current L.P. is doing to the ice under it. Folk there , with more knowledge than I could claim to have, are talking about the 'eckman pumping' the low will induce( breaking through the halocline and placing the ice bottom in contact with much warmer waters?) so we should be expecting a crash in ice extent/concentration under the position of the low? With a pretty big HP then moving in our side of the Basin Barentsz and Kara look to have a couple of days of high melt before another LP takes up position over the pole? I knew this year must be different from recent years (due to last summers melt and late winter fragmentation) and I cannot recall other seasons starting with LP's over the pole?