Gray-Wolf

I'm sorry T.R. but are not these 'pressing Environmental needs' not tied in with human mis-management? We can point the finger a 'human mis-managemnt' of the Pine Beetle crisis in the U.S. (to little to late) but without the climate shift the issue would not have arisen? When we look at the extinction event we are ploughing into surely we need wonder 'Why', in what should have been an interglacial with no special forcings, folk are now speaking of a 3/4 extinctoin of all species? When we look at the unfolding environmental disaster along sections of the Eastern U.S. Seaboard do we not neet wonder 'Why' , in a time of orbital forcing that should be cooling the north, are we seeing sea inundation and coastal forrest loss? Changes due to AGW are no longer a thing of the 'Future' but are impacting now and this needs to be 'shown' to the folk who still choose to doubt midst the wealth of data showing how correct intial fears were?

Recent studies show that man has been impacting the planet for over 60,000yrs (charcoal fragments in lake deposits showing man's use of fire to control animals during hunting) with climate impacts noticeable from 3,000bc ( http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23460-humans-indelible-stamp-on-earth-clear-5000-years-ago.html?full=true ). Studies into the regeneration of the meso-american Rain Forrest, post the decimation of the population there (after Europeans impacted their societies...Cortez the killer an' all that), show a large uptake of CO2 which coincides with the 'cool-down' of the LIA. Maybe folk should be taking another look at the primary drivers involved in that period of climate disruption in comparison with today's major drivers? Personally I can see no further than our ongoing Albedo Flip as a cause for the 'energized' weather patterns we have been seeing recently? The flood of 'new energy' in the north that the albedo Flip introduces into the workings of northern Hemisphere circulation appears , to me, to tick all the boxes? Seeing as this intensified post 07's sea ice crash I'd suggest we do not have long to wait to test the hypothesis after a similar extension in ice loss last summer? If 07' instantly forced this period of 'change' upon us then the coming summer will surely show an intensification of these effects?

But Paul , the whole point of me starting this thread was to explore 'why' folk would expect such changes (and bring to bear evidence to support their views). This is naturally going to have folk question the views and science that they support? It enables members to 'pad out' the' soundbites' we hear so many of and to allow folk to amend their personal views , should they choose, in the light of new evidence they were unaware of? A steady stream of 'I think that....' with no chance to explore the 'whys' is stifling for discussion and this is a 'discussion Forum' and not a memo pad?

And when do we believe our impacts were enough to be measured, and place us in the Anthropocene , 5,000yrs ago http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23460-humans-indelible-stamp-on-earth-clear-5000-years-ago.html?full=true "And as for the onset of the Anthropocene? Ellis is reluctant to put a definite date on it but Fuller is happy to pinpoint it to around 3000 BC. "This is the point at which we are beginning to see rises in both carbon dioxide and methane; domesticated fauna start to become widespread on all the Old World continents, and we have the emergence of urbanism and larger scale metallurgy around this time or soon after," he says."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callendar

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html Just took a look at modis and noticed the melt swirls through Barentsz and suspected that what I posted above was already occurring? The above C.T. plot show a total collapse back down to last years levels over a matter of days! We have to remember that this was part of the 'good ice' that had been helped by a cold Siberia before being shunted out over Barentsz. The fact is a good swathe of the ice back into Kara looks very messy and I fear the first spring warmth will see it fail very quickly?

I do not think anyone believes that ice loss is an instant impact on northern hemisphere circulation patterns??? Once change has been set in motion though it is hard for the perturbations to smooth out before the next dollop of forcing's are entering the system? We are still impacted by last years record losses and these will exacerbate this years melt cycle (as we have seen with differing synoptics over the pole in the late winter driving the fracture/export events) . By May , when the snow cover is fading across the region, the first wallop of this years forcing will be building in the system (remember some snow fields ,now lost, have been in place over 12,000yrs...or so finds from them show us?) so the lands exposure to Sun is brand new these past few years and the 'new energy' does accelerate surrounding ice /snow loss leading to more 'earlier' energy pumping into the climate system. We have not seen our circulation settle from last years losses and we won't before the cycle is in full flow again but this time stronger than before due to the extra energy making it through to the new season? Change becomes easier, less energy is needed to fetch us to the same point as this time last year and so more energy can flow into the system itself. Just watch the first half of melt season and the new Greenland melt plot....see what you make of it?

The latest studies on the temp rises through the later part of the 20th century point to this very conclusion Pete with massive amounts of energy 'hidden' by the huge task of removing 70% of the Mass of the Arctic (how can folk not understand the kind of year up on year , decade up on decade concerted spending of energy that was needed to kill the Arctic sea ice pack???) . Today the energy arriving is greater than then and we have little ice left to melt over the Arctic ocean. The fact Greenland mass loss picked up dramatically after the 07' sea ice crash is no coincidence so tales of some 164yr cycle for Total surface melt over Greenland will be under scrutiny this summer as the predicted albedo crash places even more pressure on the ice to melt ? I also keep seeing the GFS runs seeming to follow my child like predictions of what last years extra ice loss could do to our weather this summer. If this does pan out then Greenland's 'novel' High over it's southern half will give blue sky synoptic's for much of the highest energy portion of the summer further compounding things there? At least we'll see far more H.P. influenced weather......if we're going to have extremes I'd rather be troubled with keeping cool than keeping warm or Dry!!!

Well then I'll retract Pete but it does leave me dizzy when the simplest science is pushed away in favour of nonsense? So back on topic. The historic milestone of 400ppm is sealing our fate to the plus 2c threshold for total loss of the northern permafrost (alone far more CO2 than we have introduced into the atmosphere) and beginning to look like placing us above 1,000ppm as we had in the PETM (remember then? Crocs off Ellesmere island Lions and Hippo's in Trafalgar Sq). The biggest worry is that Antarctica only started to put on ice when levels of CO2 dropped below 450ppm, a level I'm now assured to see in my lifetime, Though the Faux Sceptics will still want 'flash melt' as proof the rest of science will know that this will consign the planet to a 'Water World' future without CO2 sequestration. With Permafrost in free-fall by that time we will have 3 times the job would would face if we only had human introduced CO2 to deal with. This is why I, in my more desperate moments, hope for a climate disaster of a scale to meet the expectations that they need to accept 'We done it' and so enable us to get on with dealing with the crisis we have set in motion. What is so hard to understand here? Climate takes time to maximise the potential of CO2 forcing but history shows what that potential is both in global Temps and Sea level changes. FYI Those interested. 400ppm ,last time around , saw Greenland 2/3 ice free and West Antarctica totally ice free (with an ocean channel between Weddell and Ross Seas. Ross embayment (that which holds back most of east Antarctica's drain glaciers), was absent. Sea level was around 5m higher. Oh ! and of course CO2 was at 400ppm which means the re-animation of 120ppm of permafrost/ice sheet carbon reserves.......and what was the planet like the last time we saw 520ppm???

Why would you say that AnyWeather? That's rubbish and you must know it? We are just passing 400ppm, a level not experienced for 800,000yrs, We have been much higher than this and not experienced 'runaway warming so why would we now? 1,000ppm was quite 'normal' when our planet was ice free and we saw no runaway warming then did we? Then we run into timescales for warming due to CO2. Why would you speak as though we should have seen instant impacts when past CO2 warmings take thousands of years to manfest their potential? Are you sure you know anything about this subject AnyWeather? As for global CO2 levels we have pushed them to the point to destabilise the northern permafrost. With the warming in the pipeline we will continue to see meltdown well after we have throttled back on our emmisions and look likely to see CO2 heading toward the old 'ice free levels' of CO2. EDIT: though knockers introduced it on the other thread maybe you could do with reading , and digesting, this; http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/what-does-400-ppm-look-like/ " An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events" ".Now the planet is poised to reach the 1,000 ppm level in only 100 years if emissions trajectories remain at their present level." It would appear that most folk do understand CO2?

http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/arctic-ocean-predicted-to-be-ice-free-by-2015/?#.UX6bPaLvsZ4 So the govt. are being given a date of 2015/16 for 'ice free' Arctic? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/lifestyle/un-climate-chief-warns-of-urgency-as-co2/658104.html? passing 400ppm earlier in the year than I imagined? I thought it'd be late Sept before we got close?

I enjoyed that knocker, it does allow folk to understand just what is going on behind their backs. none of us welcome bad news but denying it or ignoring it does us no favour's either. Sadly most folk will need to see a good number more 'Sandy's' before the realise how this situation is impacting us all?

I think the fact that science is now taking on the 'big oil' P.R. machine will mean that such myths are buried for ever. With the hockey stick a faux skeptic would have to deny 'All' proxy measures to maintain the science is wrong/manipulated. every other branch of science is quite happy using 'proxies' as proofs? Look at astronomy and the discovery of new planets by watching their star dim, no direct 'sighting' of the planet but the use of another entities 'reaction' to it's presence? Just the same as foram's for temp reconstruction etc? With science now ever more hell bent on crossing all 'T's' and dotting all 'i's' the 'pedant's quibbling' will soon be a thing of the past? Though painful the messing that Faux Sceptics have done has merely served to make the science more accessible to all concerned (with all doubt removed).

Maybe that's there code speak for 'Green competition' leading to a drop in peak demand electricity.....supply and demand at work eh? EDIT:Some folk would like to think unfair subsidies of renewables make their bills dearer so it'll come of a shock to hear the utilities complaining of the fact that folk using more renewables drops their demand over 'peak hours' (their 'cash cow') meaning they have to hike prices to keep up profit margins for their investors. Higher prices means more folk looking at cutting their bills by using renewables and the circle goes around again. It is like the 'land line' in the 90's. Who'd have thought so many folk would do away with that in favour of their mobiles? Soon enough folk will maintain grid connections only for 'emergencies'!

I think that we might now start to see the first of the accelerated losses that I think the fracture event will drive this early melt season? Some of the movement that drove the buckling of the pack also shunted ice into areas that have been ice free for nearly a decade prior to this drift? As such I would expect a rapid melt out of both the peripheral ice and these sections of 'interloper ice'? The question has to be how will 'extent' reflect the early area losses? Will the 15% / 30% cutoff allow for a spiderweb pack that extent sees as 100% cover? The other thing of note (to me at least) is the loss of the 'babies arm' from Beaufort into East Siberian sea this year? Does this mean the inner pack will not be protected from Pacific waters this season? I remember in 06' the flow rate into the basin was at record levels so maybe the thick multiyear ice feature limited the damage that this influx could do by presenting a 'dam' that had to be melted out first? We have seen it melt out the past few years but had it done it's job of damage limitation by that point? All in all there seems to be a lot riding on this seasons losses?

I think A.W. might mean studies by certain blog sites into their belief that the climate is cooling? As far as I am aware the planet is still warming?

I think what Anyweather forgets is that we know the scale of the energy imbalance that the CO2 forcing brings with it and that 90% of that energy is going into the ocean? sitting around waiting for the 10% that goes into the land to do it's thing whilst twittering about how little is occuring merely highlights the issue of understanding that many folk appear to be blighted with? As I've been saying for the past 8 months I feel that the changes to the Arctic have unleashed a much more potent impact on our climate system so folks bemoaning how little change they can see occuring will be given the rapid change they demand. Sadly some of this change involves the destabilisation of the carbon within the northern permafrosts and if the anoms for methane across the Arctic this past winter are anything to go by we shall be hearing a lot about them over the next few years?

Most climate scientists dealing with Sea ice loss agree that, after the first 'ice free year' ice loss will rapidly make the ice free period from June onward. Once this occurs and we trap the 'equator' levels of energy in the basin we rapidly move to ice free year round (remember the heat is already there in the lower ocean to allow this to occur now!) The only question is the 'first ice free year' many folk plump for before 2030 but i go for 'anytime now' and before 2020 (next perfect storm year 2017?)

Dear dear SI, you're not getting it are you?

Thanks Knock's! Because of the way the public perception of the origional work has been tainted I believe there are a number of groups of scientists using far reaching 'proxies' to provide us with as close a recostruction as modern techniques allows us. I would not be too surprised to see the next few years filled with hockey sticks! Sad that big oil draws attention away from the job of monitoring present changes but the techniques being developed for gaining full atmosphere samples from varied resources is also a boon to climate science? The better we are at looking at past relationships between GHG's Temp and orbital forcings the better we can see how out of whack todays changes are plus the ability to better see where GHG forcing will end up leading temp rises?

Please do A.W.! I'm always saying that my biggest hope is to be proven totally wrong and turn out to be merely a 'doomsayer' (as Four has me down as!). Sadly my track record on Arctic ice/Greenland mass loss and permafrost seem to place me closer to the pulse than the rubbish bin? I dearly hope that the way I'm figuring albedo flip/energy redistribution is far wider of the mark than my thoughts, over the past 7 years or so, on the above??? I merely say what I see (and study) once it's been around my noggin a couple of times? I'd love to know the trick you guys have of seeing/reading all of this stuff and then have it all come up Rosy?

http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-panels-could-destroy-u-s-utilities-according-to-u-s-utilities/ With battery technology getting better and better as folk want longer charges on smart phones and laptops it appears the day is approaching that has 'utilities comp,s scared. The day that the grid is only used as a 'backup' to most domestic homes. As more and more homes dip into saving energy by using renewables 'lost trade' forces up proces making renewables more attractive so losing the utility comp more customers (and on it goes) all we are short of it battery technology up to the storage job as solar panels become better and cheaper. A good development?

So.... In my lifetime I expect to see a further hike in CO2, the crop plants , which do not favour increased CO2 levels by the way with yield drops reported from high CO2 levels, will continue to be blighted in areas that we used to view as 'grain basket ' areas due to 'global weirding' (as exteme weather events continue to scour the northern hemisphere bringing drought,flood, cold , heat) driven by natures responces to GHG driven warming. I expect to see sea level rises that render most oil terminals useless and impact major cities based on the coasts or lowest bridging points of major rivers. I expect to see ice free Arctic year round and the West Antarctic ice sheet in a state of collapse with Greenlands mass loss doubling over a 5 year period (prior to losing 1/3 of the ice cover). I hope not to see the collapse of ross embayment as this will signal both the opening of an ocean channel between east and west Antarctica but also allow mass losss from east Antarctica to begin in earnest (most of the ocean terminating drain glaciaers are held back by Ross). I expect politicians to do nothing until their population force them to act and expect many whining noises from folk who do not wish to spend money to secure the childrens future.....

In previous warmings we would be looking at the West Antarctic Ice sheet and having this discussion? If Greenland has us concerned then what will prospects appear like when W.A.I.S. is also back to lead the mass loss tables? (as the Ozone Forcing drops out and world warmth re-enters the Southern Continent.) Folk have taken advantage of the slow response of the planet to warming as a sign of 'no warming'. They neglected to look into paleo climates and periods where change was instant (decadal) when they engaged on this tactic. I believe this will be back to bite them in the Butt as AGW forces 'natural' responses, that are far faster than GHG forcings, to unfurl across the globe with Albedo flip being the first and Methane destabilisation hard on it's heels?