Gray-Wolf

It just appears to confirm that denialists will believe what serves them best , and argue for such, even when the facts on the ground run contrary to that view. Basically we will end up with a portion of 'vested interests' folk, measurably out of stride with reality, as the broader impacts of AGW become ever more apparent?

I have always found John M. approachable, caring and down to Earth in his dealings with me? Has someone been spouting tosh toward him as I also know he does not suffer Fools willingly?

I agree P.P. , the 2010 pattern of blocking had all the hallmarks of 'H.P. predominance during soalr min' that I was told of at A' level but not since (for me).

I have to fully agree Pete!Solar varience varies in 0. something amounts. Human/Natural reduction of TSI at the surface is currently up to 10% less (at ground level) in some regions and averages out around 6% reduction for the whole planet? Surely we should worry about Indo-China cleaning up it's act and volcanic (medium sized Eruptions falling back to average?The most obvious physical change to the planet, since 07', has been the ramp up in open water across the summer Arctic and the 'new energy' this has introduced into the system far outweighs any drop off in solar (even though ,over the period we have gone from solar min to max)so why can some folk not put this into their thinking along with solar varience?It is fine having a pet theory but surely we must remain adaptable when data insists we should?

So what does your physics training tell you will occur when you lessen the temp/pressure gradient between two points P.P.? I accept that the Sun (like all other 'natural variations') plays it's part in climate but surely you have to accept the physical evidence of the changes between pole and equator esp. post 07's Arctic ice low? With that evidence accepted what do you think this 'shift' must cause?

The average track of the polar jet is still moveing north (Prof Francis shows us) with the 'peaks', of the 'wave' shifting north faster than the troughs are but ,all in all, the Jet is still heading north (as are the tropic's still shifting toward the Poles). All that has happened is that the 'potential difference' between the two air bodies has lessened so the 'energy flow' they create has also lessened meaning it has suddenly become very sinuous (unlike the 'wavey', high energy 'energy flow', between the two air bodies with a greater potential difference?) At times windspedds in the Jet fall so low that the 'plot' of the loop falls out of sight on the plotting maps. This is what I mean about the Jet 'disappearing' over the coming months/years.So the way the flow is plotted today,once the wind speed criterea for it 'appearing' on the plots is dropped below?

If you think of a river then when young it's profile is steep and it runs straight. By the time it's old it's profile is near flat and it meanders all over the place producing ox bow cut offs and a huge flood plain over which to wander. If the jet is a 'stream' then when it's profile/gradient is less it'll tend toward the old river windiness? With the added issue that sluggish Jets mean inner continental high's tend to hang around and in summer be very hot (this heat extends it's influence out in the way sea ice extended it's influence out?) making the basin nearly circled with high temp land masses helping it's own 'home grown temps' to become higher and the jet slower (nasty feedback loop). I believe we will lose the Polar Jet completely.

I would have thought that any basic understanding in what powers the jet stream would have been all you needed to see what an Arctic, warming a number of times faster than the rest of the planet, would cause (should they have found the need to look)? Past instances of a 'change' to the heat/pressure profile between pole and equator must help show what can occur when the slope lessens?

We're at the same point that we are at in the general climate change discussions in that 'natural/solar' will have impacts (as they always did) but the new boy on the block will only force in one direction (over time). Natural/solar will augment/detract from the 'new boy' forcings (so folk will see what they expect from their pet natural and dismiss the scale of the helping hand that the 'new boy' has given). Low solar , in 2010, aided in the blocking we saw then. N.Hemisphere blocking since shows that something larger than the solar (now at max) is at play?

I think you're not quite understanding the changed arctic? We have seen , over the past 4 years, Synoptics that used to protect ice take ice away. We have seen , via fixed buoy arrays, changes to the surface of the Arctic that preclude ice retention. In effect, the ice appears to now need as much time (over 50yrs) to regain the kind of ice that is durable enough to withstand the cyclical 'perfect storm' synoptic. Many folk are looking back to 08' to guess at how the Arctic will respond to last years record melt. i would say that, even over this short span of time, 07' cannot be used as an analogue for this years melt. We now have a very different ice pack with FY ice dominating. Much of the older ice took a battering through last years melt season and so must include a portion of FY ice at it's base. Last year we saw 'average weather' take 3m of ice before Aug. How much 'old ice' do we have that is over 3m thick? Where is it positioned? From what I've been seeing these past years we should brace ourselves for further massive melting in the basin rivaling last years record melt or even surpassing it. By late June we should have a better idea of what we should expect come September.

Surely it's just a matter of weighting probabilities P.P.? What varience have we seen in the sun since 07' onward and what scale of impacts has ice loss driven since 07'(albedo flip enabling better harvesting of the suns energy and re-distribution of energy once employed all summer melting ice)? I know this is an over simplification but there seems to have been a far bigger impact from ice loss on the atmospheric workings than from any varience in solar output. I know it is your 'belief' but I struggle to see things any other way than I do as ,to me, solar appears a non-starter?

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-10/met-office-investigating-arctic-link-in-record-low-temperatures/ More links ,and study, into the links with our 'weird Weather'. Pretty soon you'll be a bit of a flat earther to not concede record losses of ice (and all the changes this brings with albedo and energy re-distribution) impacts our world right now?

The link over to Nevens Blog helps bring things into context I thought? The shift over to the Russian side by the thickest ice must have us wonder how it will fare there instead of over Beaufort side??? We all thought that Beaufort might help retain the ice last summer (it always used too?) but didn't so how will being free of the gyre serve it? The 'summer style' N.Russian high is busy setting up it's summer temps across Northern Europe/Russia so how hot will the southerlies over the ice be be come July???How warm will the river outflows be???? With the trans polar drift and The Russian Heatwave I do not ex[etc any better than last years efforts in ice retention if not worse?

Another indicator that a period in history with similar GHG concentrations saw the WAIS gone and open water between Ross and Weddell seas. My belief is that the partial collapse of Ross (Roosevelt Island end) allows for the opening of the channel between both seas and the total meltout of WAIS follows. As such I would encourage folk to watch Ross Embayment esp. the fractures/moulins into Roosevelt Island. Once that swathe of ice has failed gravity , and not temperature, brings aboput the loss of Ross and the separation of west and east Antarctica. This is another event in most folks (30yrs) lifetime and has 'sudden sea level rise' implications. Nature does not lie. The findings from molluscs,bivalves and arthropods point to open water connection between Ross and Weddell 125,000yrs ago. GHG's were slightly below the totals we expect this Sept. Go figure.......

I think I posted my concerns about such in Feb? If the Med. continues to see high tems over summer then any such 'Hybrid' runs the risk of intensification as it hits the warmer waters? Any southern extension/positioning of the Azores High could lead to any early formed T.S.'s recurving up the African coast any into the Med./NW Europe. Never say Never eh?

I'm sorry if my tone comes across that way ( I'm often in trouble in here for being' too patronising' ), it is never my intention and I have to wonder if the written word leaves too much for the reader to imply in terms of tone and intention? As with any person I am allowed an opinion but it does not make it 'law'? it's just my 'opinion/truth'. I think my years of trying to allow sense/reality to prevail has left me with a reputation (in certain quarters) that does not service my needs but is used to detract/diminish what I am attempting to say? I am heartened to have recieved a warm 'thank you' note, from an international 'Lurker' ( over in 'another place'), which helps focus me in my intention to have such folk be able to read about what is occuring in the climate and help them discern the wheat from the chaff. It is not all about the folk who post here and we all owe a duty of care to those who seek knowledge. The likes of Monkton show us that some folk delight in gaining plaudits by telling them what they 'want to hear'..... and not by facing the hard truths. Each to their own I suppose?

The more I see of them the more I believe that the adherents of Monkton and co. are very frightebed individuals who need each other to 'scare' away the Bogeyman that looms ever larger once they are alone? They scrabble around, through swathes of current science, to find the merest scrap of comfort that what they see occuring is transitory or , crazier still, 'normal'? I, for one, feel I have wasted enough of my time on them. They have no wish to understand , merely find another oportunity to yell out loud 'There is no BOGEYMAN!!!'.

Would anyone h an opinion on what the shift of the 'Cold Pole' to Greenland could have on the weather of the N.Hemisphere? I understand over summer this was always the case but now over winter Greenland is more often the coldest place? Or will we see 2 cold poles develop? One over Siberia and one over Greenland?

Not true of the lakes if that drowning report is anything to go by? Lakes too thin to ice fish on yet drift ice (driven to the coast by an 'odd' high pressure system) blocks the coast in one region? I wonder if there's anything else we need to know about the past winter up there Keith?

By the look of the upcoming synoptic we might just see early losses increase over the coming 2 weeks? Crackopalypse has done a proper number on the pack and ,it appears, is now rubbling up the fracture zones. This can only serve to increase mobility of the ice if the winds/current demand. This is what I was fretting about once I realised the fracture event was turning basin wide. Float off, early on, allows for open water , mid basin, through peak solar and so enhances the bottom melt end of the season so it effectively becomes a high melt season even if the 'perfect storm' synoptic does not occur? This is why I veered away from any notion of 'rebound' this time around. This is not 07' with a 'bank' (however small) of thicker, older ice. This is the year following years where synoptics that used to nurture ice have destroyed it and areas where multiyear used to grow are now active melt zones. Folk should take the time to read the reports of ice conditions during the 30's and 40's in the areas now ice free year round just as some reminder of what was 'normal' 50yrs ago. Throw in a bit of the 'odd' melt season behaviours we have seen over the last couple of years and we could be in for the worst season yet? Increased evaporation over the basin, Enhanced pressure gradient due to a persistent

Good Grief Charlie Brown! How much of the Arctic do some members need to see meltdown occurring??? Obviously 80% lost since the early 80's is not a concern for some? Why should those of us who are frightened by what they have seen try and let others understand our concerns when such lack of understanding exists ? As for food supplies? We have the potential to overfeed our current population but still folk starve? That being the case how do you think things are now that we are seeing shortfalls?

So , have we fallen prey to the first major 'weather departure ' of the year? Should this type of blocking continue then heatwave and drought masy well replace our recent 'flood' years as our norm (until the next major ice loss)?

If you look at 'air melt v's bottom melt' you'll find the best way to melt out lots of ice very quickly is to have it in the Arctic ocean over the latter part of the melt season. What you are suggesting would mean that the years that took the Paleo ice had an awful lot of energy around to 'wither away' the huge floes? Have them collapse into the water and it's job over in less than a month (as we see each year). i'd rather take the 'moderate line' than this flamethrower approach to the demise of the last of Beaufort/arctic ocean's paleo ice? also note that 'all' of the thicker ice went in the manner I suggest not just the ice post 07' so we have ice maps of the noughties not really reflecting the conditions on the ground? Had we the real data 07' might not have been the surprise it proved to be? today we have a similar spectre of 'old ice' with a thick keel of FY ice? The map shows more resilient ice yet we see it bow out in a matter of days over high season? We need ice thickness measures at ice min to fully work out how the ice will survive the next melt cycle? Much of the periphery of the central older ice must have been very close to melt out last summer , yet clung on, to have a new growth of FY ice (with it's poor survivability qualities) grow on it's base over winter? Folk should take at least 1/3 of this ice off the maps if they are looking at how low the ice will go this summer. We saw 3m+ FY ice melt out from the C.A. last July so we know that even that thickness of ice will not survive over most of the basin (i.e. most all of the ice!) so only geographic position looks to be the saving grace for today's pack? Synoptics drifting central ice ,conveyor belt like, into warmer southern regions will put us in real danger of mega melt during July/Aug and how do we forecast such??? If last years melt allows for a constant H.P. to the south of Greenland then we may well see GAC12 type incursions , on the Siberian side, bringing ice cover to an end this summer.

Agreed Shugg's! Had we suffered the scale of max NASA initially predicted would there have been the spate of 'the world isn't warming' discussions the past 6 months? Would we have seen a more noted increase across this period of natural, and man made, cooling drivers?? Were the suns impacts to hold the type of variable potential there would be ample record of this 'unknown' , long cycle, climate driver in the paleo record and we do not see it? Even the last grand min would have been lost in climate noise had we not the solar observations to bring out a 'link' between the climate and solar activity? As it is the most compelling explanation for the changes we have seen/are seeing so far is a human influence on the climate and the planets own reactions to that forcing (with natural variability still posting the largest impacts?). The 'tipping point we saw the Arctic emerge from in the noughties may well prove to be the event to push this climate morphing into a more active period. Should this prove true then we should also expect the southern ice sheets to be impacted by the extremes and then become a similar driver to the Arctic (through Albedo flip and energy re-distribution)? For humanity the food producing regions are our most precious regions and any intensification of the climate extremes there will bring very rapid and real issues to humanity over a very short time span ( no Joseph to tell us to prepare for 7 lean years eh?). The socio- economic issues arising from such a disaster will drive further turmoil for humanity. Better live for the day eh?

Always 3 days away from Anarchy Four! " Panis quod Venatus!" Many of the small farms in the U.S. run the risk of Bankrupcy this year if conditions don't bring them a harvest. Even bigger Madness when capitalism demands land sit fallow, due to ownership issues, whilst folk starve??? Even on my jollier days I can't see any way humanity can continue on it's current growth rate? However sad our best chace is a re-size and new economic structure for the planet. With enough for all surely we can move away from the hinderence of wealth (and the poverty it demands to be measured against?) and focus more on individual worth?