Gray-Wolf

I am still very concerned about the upcoming season. The gains we see in the PIOMAS data must include the spread into Kara and Barentsz as well as the 'infill ice' in the crackopalypse area. All of this ice is destined for melt very early in the season? On top of this we also must have a large amount of 2012 melt season impacted 'multi-year ice' with a surface skim of older ice underlain by FY ice. If an average year can take 2m of FY ice by Aug then I still think we will have exceedingly low levels by Sept 2013?

I read this blog earlier. I feel a lot more positive after reading it! I do have concerns about the surface of the Arctic ocean and I do think we are seeing changes to the extent that the N.A.D. penetrates into the basin? I think that a run of GAC12's across the basin could well mess things up for good up there and open a new chapter for the Arctic Ocean? I do believe that the Siberian shelf deposits could be becoming destabilised (as studies in 2010 and 2011 showed us....no news from last years studies this time though??? why the delay this year?) and this ,along with the melting permafrosts, will impact the levels of GHG in the atmoshere no matter what we do to reduce our inputs. Changes in albedo, and redistribution of energy within the climate system, will bring about change,

To err is human...... Slow news day guys?

Hi Be cause! Agreed, some of the 'alterations' are occuring very fast indeed but others, like the re-stabilisation of the ice sheets at the 'new' stable temps, will take a long while? Sadly every time we get a tad more of our carbon cycle out of deep freeze we increase temps a little more meaning we have to melt a bit more of the ice and release a tad more of the hibernating carbon cycle. To me our initial carbon forcing would appear to mean that we will always have a higher temp forcing than the global carbon cycle (some of which is our 'hibernating' portion) could manage alone? in fact , to me, i can't see any other final result than the complete melt out of all of earths ice sheets and total re-integration of all of our potential carbon cycle......plus the bit of the carboniferous/permian/cretaceous carbon cycles we decided to add into the mix....over time. Such impacts must take many thousands of years to complete?

Hi Dev! I understand where you are coming from and sympathise. To me mother N. is used for the planet and it's own 'settings', the thing that deamnds 'balance'? I would not include all the critters and environments that we so thoughlessly trash for our own needs/ends? When I look at the changes to the planets energy budget, and see imbalance, then I use 'Nature' as a way to encompass the mass of differing ways that the planet utilises to bring about some semblance of 'balance' to a system out of whack. It grows ever more complicated as the planet's past balance was tied into it's ice reserves and albedo and these factors kept potions of the planets carbon cycle in hibernation so any changes will cause alteration in that 'hibernating carbon cycle' and so add further forcings (and so on and so on). All I know is that eventually , over time, all this 'imbalance will shake out anf the planet will again enjoy as kind of dynamic stability? So the 'tools' at her disposal to bring about 'balance' may . in fact, lead to greater imbalance in the short term as the planet allows for the new size of carbon cycle that the new temps allow for. It is the speed at which those changes occur that bring the dangers some of us foresee? Past Abrupt warming were driven by the same type of forcings we see begining today.

Again , as i said earlier in the year, folk who deny the impacts today will tend to drag up an analogue (to show that 'such things happen) without the context? Before too long the usual folk will be parading that "at least we're not warmest" without showing the context of the 'warm period' (glacial max forcing) nor how a descent into min has been overturned without and orbital forcing change. Why play games with stats when something so unique is happening? So let's have it straight. We're not on a rapid warm-up after a glaciation anymore, we are in a cool-down from that 'peak warming' so why do we find ourselves warming at all? On the smaller timescale we are in a period of PDO-ve forcings with both volcanic and human produced particulate 'dimming' (impacting TSI at the surface) so why are our current temps still top ten year on year?

I think that there is a real possibility that some of the ice at the fracture zone melts? The fact that the water below is fluid means it's a darn sight warmer than the ice. Any 'swash' generated by the breakage of the ice , and widening of the gap will wash off the snow at the fracture and melt back some of the fracture surface itself? Talking of which I saw a modis image yesterday which show a fracture with a linear cloud above it. this 'linear cloud was repeated many times down wind of the fissure showing that the open water still had a lot of heat and moisture to give out ( all these tales of the summers heat having to be lost before re-freeze takes place? Pah!). There must be a very different atmosphere directly above this zone of fracture compared to what it was prior to them?

The saddest part of the 'ice age' issue is that the studies on orbital forcings were correct and we indeed should have been 'cooling' (and were for a thousand years across the north until the turn of the 1900's when temps unexpectedly 'flipped'). If anything should have wised folk up to the power of our meddlings it surely is the switching off of an ice age??? When I hear folk banging on about 'Missing Heat' I have to wonder at what they were imagining? Not only have we stopped the northern cooling but we have raised the temp and melted the polar ice.....all in a time when it should be thickening to another cold max. Ah well! I suppose this thread is set to become as bust as the Arctic melt season one as the 'weird weather' stories start to amass once again?

Well whatever 'caused it' the forcings that have been allowing it to continue seem to be lessening over the coming days? What we do not need to see is a L.P. pushing through Bering and having the Greenland High force a pressure grad that places high wind strain/builds wave action over the region! I am starting to think that we may well have 'peaked' in terms of ice growth this year as well? If normal 'losses' continue to occur at the outside of the pack then the ice need to make up the shortfall to the Feb 27th max would take something 'extreme'? Nearly time for the busiest thread of the section to be born?

I'm still not sure about 'melt' if ice is plunged deeper or if wave action mixes out this years halocline and allows warmer, saltier waters to the surface. Also melt implies energy so even at -50c enough pressure will lead to melt. We are seeing an awful lot of energy expended in that fracture zone presently. I know I'm being pedantic but I've been following discussion on other sites regarding the topic and 'melt or not' is one of them. As a geologist i know we have 'pressure melt' in some metamorphic rocks so the same 'state change' must apply here (and not just at the bottom of ice sheets/Glaciers ;-) Hi BFTV! all in all it appears to have been a very different winter to what we have been seeing this past 4 or so years? Are you thinking it a 'natural variation' or has last years melt altered things to the point where we now see a differing pattern emerging? I note that Baffin has not seen any departure from the recent years past nor has Barentsz so some of what I see as 'impacts' from the Arctic changes remain unaltered but the atmospheric patterns (and averages) appear markedly different to the post 07' winters? I know I attribute some of the UK blocking in 2010 to the low solar so I'm wondering if high solar may have had an imput in the past winter's changes? I'm trying not to lay another 'flip' in conditions at the door of Ice loss as I fear the outcomes should we be ramping up from the state that brought us last years extremes across the northern hemisphere! My only other concern is with what rapidity will all this mangled ice disappear over the next 6 months. I'm beginning to understand that absolute minimum is just a momentary measure and the real issue is the amount of open water under sun. This said any quick melt of the majority of the pack would be bad news as it will leave open water under the higher sun and all day input. Soon be time for another thread? How time flies!!!

I do not believe I can see any 'collisions' as the ice collapses and when you look at images over the period of collapse all you see is ice pulling apart and fresh leads freezing over only for new fractures to then open up? That intial coastal collapse appears to have created the space for the rest of the 'collapse' to flow into? I am sure, as the event unfolds and the ice pushes through the pack toward Fram, we will see over-riding but I fear that this will just push ice down into the melt zone (last years summer warmth that GAC12 'mixed' into the water column?). I feel the main lessons to be gained is just how the thin ice has lost all structural integrity and how easily it is able to flow and deform under 'normal' atmospheric forcings?

It's just a 'natural, cyclical thing' Pete??? How else would we see Knocker's Giant Camels on Ellesmere Island.....they tend to go on long vacations regardless of the weather..... As far as wanting to see 'impacts' L.G.right now I'd point you to the ongoing 'Crackopolypse' event Across the Arctic Basin. Consider the implications for the coming melt season with half the older ice flushed out into Fram before the melt gets going and the rest in small floes awaiting the first of the GAC12esque storms of the summer (if you are one of those who think GAC12 caused the dramatic ice losses in lateJuly early Aug last year)....if you do not believe that the energy that our ongoing Albedo Flip pours into the climate system then you will have no concerns should crackopolypse lead to an early rapid melt out of the sea ice (and the knock on impacts on land snow/ice from such an early melt out) this summer as it will not fuel extremes in climate or weather over the coming summer throughout the northern hemisphere?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130305145133.htm This will not please a lot of folk who'd rather see this glut of extremes being merely a statistical fluke but, as time goes on and further 'extremes' crowd in, there has to be a point where we all ask "What is going on?" and find our recent climate changes are the only reasonable explaination for this run of extremes?

When we see the kind of fragmentation that we have recently the wide leads formed quickly ice over. Losses around the margins may well balance out these 'gains' but it does mean a lattice of very thin ice between the flows. This ice is only cm's thick and cannot survive should the pack move due to wind/wave/tide. this leaves an even more fragmented pack as floe bashes into floe. Come melt season the broken ice will melt faster than solid sheets of ice. This is what we have this year with multi km leads throughout Beaufort and fractures now moving into the multiyear pack north of the canadian archipelago.

I Suppose if the ice from Beaufort rides over onto the ice north of the C.A. we'd see some dramatic reductions? (LOL) For the ice not to have formed over much of Barentsz/Greenland sea the SST's must still be relatively warm so I suppose it depends on how slowly the ice pushes into those areas as to how quickly we see extent go up? Sadly, like last year, we see good ice lost to be replaced by a thin skim in time for melt season. I do think that any 'rebound' in ice levels is unlikely esp. with such a thin/mobile pack. If we see a spring full of winds blowing ice into Fram we could lose half our good ice even before we see our first 'melt' losses! It will be another interesting year to be 'ice watching' that's for sure! http://www.woksat.info/etcvc05/vc05-1423-a-apt-w.htmlThe The forecast push will run the ice through the pole toward Fram, we can all see where this leaves our multiyear ice.

Just seen the US Navy 'drift' forecast for the next 5 days and it really does not look good for the ice over Fram. The fact that we are still in a 'full ice' period means that any movement on one side of the pack gets translated over to the other side so the kind of shunt that is expected from the shattered ice in Beaufort could well push a large mass of ice into Fram. I would keep and eye on things over the coming weekend to see just how much of an issue this causes?

And how much has volume dropped over that period Keith? And so what does this tell us about the ice this year?

I've also been watching that BFTV? With all the ice on the move I had expect a growth spurt as the ice relaxes out into barentsz and Greenland sea areas (time for that still?) on it's way into Fram? It would be a double whammy to see ice peak so early in the year and to be in such a disrupted state? If the state of disruption is a good 40 days early then, compared with last year, ice max would also be well early? I think my main focus for the season will be to see how early the bulk of the pack melts out? If we are consistantly seeing the pack majority melted by late July/early Aug then come the first summer after melt out we could expect a lot of open water by Aug. That will mean a lot more time under sun for a lot more of the ocean. I also wonder at the mixing GAC12 caused in the Beaufort Sea/Central basin. Has this 'warmth' been perculating back to the surface layer and helped limit ice thickness there? The speed and extent of the breakup there is now truely without comparisome with new fissures reaching deep into the ice of the C.A. (multiyear pack). Should we have another few days of the same then the whole of the pack will have become involved in this odd event?

Back in the day my old mum used to say "it's too cold to snow"......she didn't know why but she knew it was......we are seeing places that used to be too dry for snowfall now accepting snow (if you didn't used to get snow then it doesn't take much to break your 'record' does it?). The warming of the atmosphere and ,more importantly the increase in humidity will see snowfall totals rise across some areas of the planet. The 'fact' remains though that even such record dumpings are melting away far ealier in the year. It's like the cries for 'record' sea ice in the Arctic. Does it really matter if as soon as spring has sprung the snow/ice has gone??

I wonder if you'd feel the same if you suddenly needed underpinning as a flash flood event had washed out one side of your foundations P.P.? Extreme weather has extreme impacts.

http://www.colorado....warming-says-cu I do believe that, in light of these findings, I might just have to revise my time-line? With only 0.7c of warming left until we are told to expect all the northern permafrosts to destabilise i fear we are already living on borrowed time? As i've often said Asia will clean up it's act in so far as particulate pollution is concerned (and up the TSI at the surface) but if we enter a quieter period around the 'ring of Fire' now that pressure has been relieved by the recent uptick in eruptions then we will also lose this 25% modification of the TSI reaching the surface? This means that not only do temps rise faster but that the permafrost itself is exposed to a greater frocing directly (and increase summer thaw) bringing about a further uptick in both CO2 and Methane emissions. Howeve I look at it were " attached to another object by an incline plane, wrapped helicly around an axis .."!

http://www.colorado....warming-says-cu Oh dear! We have Nasa telling us that particulate pollution could be robbing as much as 50% of the warming we should be seeing and now the above ten year study showing the impacts of our frequently popping Volcanoes (fairly frquent of late esp. around the ring of fire?) taking up as much as 25% of the warming whilst sat deep in PDO-ve with low solar activity and a run of la Ninas and still temps rise??? The question has to be how are our current changes able to overcome all of the above? What does it suggest about the 'models' and their predictions??? To me it appears that , in reality, the models are going to appear quite conservative once the negative factors shake out? Imagine what type of warming we will experience in a set of 'neutral' forcings never mind when they swing positive to augment warming??? It's like sitting under a parasol and saying "it's not that hot today is it?". I do believe that 'Nature' is also starting to respond to the warming with the rapid ice losses we have seen over this 'dimmed' period. Even though tempered by negative forcings I do believe we will see temps rising more rapidly over the coming decades, due to the albedo flip forcings (before we lose our particulate pollution sunscreen and the volcanic areosols are rained out), and more attention will start being given to why we did not foresee such an upturn in the rate of warming. The next few years will seal the fate of the Permafrosts and with it all hope of keeping GHG levels down (or reducing them to safe levels). The folk who currently pooh,pooh climate change will have a lot of explaining to do to their peers as the coming years unfold (I Believe).

I have now been in the Valley bottom for 12 months and so see the Calder, where it passes through Mytholmroyd on a daily basis. It would appear that a consequence of last years flood events has lead to the river here entering an erosional phase? i do not know whether this is a change in the 'load' of the river or an alteration to it's flow (clearer tributaries pushing water in faster) or both. What I do know is the 'land' (grass and veg covered) over the cobbled channel margins have been stripped clear in sections. To me this is a worry. It surely either signals a lowering of the seaward side or an increase in flow from the source side and the seaward side surely isn't sinking! As for this next 12 months of weather? Well, I'm no forecaster but I strongly suspect that last years shocking sea ice low will have impact this year? Already the thin ,young ice is in disarray suggesting a more rapid melt out of the bulk of the ice this summer. This means longer under sun for the areas seeing open water and so more energy in the climate system. The open coastal strips will mean a faster warming of the land beyond and so a lessening (again) of the temp/pressure Grad from pole to Equator hinting at another summer of errant Jet behaviour. I am hoping that the jet pattern is even more exaggerated than of late giving higher peaks/lower troughs and a shorter amplitude pulling the trough that has blighted us for 6 summers back into the Atlantic and allowing continental heat across the north Sea to us? I'd love to see a few 'blocked periods' with high temps but worry that if this comes from Germany then we will have to 'sweat it out' with very high humidity making the heat even more oppressive? (and good for storms???) I think we have seen the best of our 'snow' when the h.p. has been overpowered by the Atlantic and if we see the same again I'd expect very high energy storms with the prospect of large hail ,flash floods and funnel clouds so I'm watching out for extreme storms too! I would hate to spend another summer with the Jet troughed south of us and an endless stream of depressions circling overhead whilst they dump their cargo of rain (blocked from going east by the continental high.....and it's sunshine and high temps!!!) So yes L.G. I do expect another 'strange year' for the northern hemisphere with folk seeing yet more "1 in 100yr" events (even if they had similar last year) to add to our growing record of extremes. How can I suggest such? Well unlike predicting day by day weather (impossible?) I can see that there will, once again, be an extra wadge of energy in the climate system. I can see the potential for high temps inside the Arctic circle again (relatively high temps that is) and so upper atmosphere flows reflecting this. High energy, sluggish Jet = ?