Gray-Wolf

And this is the thing Pete, we skipped the 9% 'forcing' and went straight into the GHG forcing this time but seeing as past 'warmups' from ice ages relied upon the carbon cycle for the majority of the heating what should we expect from the Industrial GHG's we have released? As far as the 'natural' carbon cycle is concerned our forcing has replaced the orbital forcing and so now we shoulD expect the GHGs that the nudge will release? We all saw the Siberian caves paper and so know what temp rise is needed to start those massive releases and once those are underway then we need wonder about the planets ice sheets and the carbon cycle buried below them? Such things are fine for faux sceptics as they will take a long while to present, sadly the albedo flip impcts on global energy budgets will bring us/is bringing us will be nigh on instant. Let's see what this summer brings us?

Hi Knocker! They are right , it will be the unmistakeable event that will change the public attitude (as we have seen the past summer in the U.S,) Folk may not wish to swat up on the subject of AGW but they do know about it. All that will occur is the office will break down into the folk who say "I told you it was happening" and "well, we didn't know enough before but now" and " Nah, it's the sun..." Folk will just step over the "we could have done something to mitigate the worst of this" and step straight into " Why did our leaders not let us know it was this bad". I think the politcal trick will be not to be in office when it becomes apparent that we are in deep do,do's but to be the ones who come to power to sort out the do,do's when you will not have to justify the Draconian measures needed to then try and offset the worst we have coming?

We're stuck in the middle of a cold PDO forcing with a run of la-Nina's and had a very long solar min and what did global temps do? What did the summer Arctic sea ice do? What did the mass loss from Greenland do? What i do not think you are willing to grasp id that the forcings unleashed by the slow 'drip ,drip' of AGW are far greater than the solar variance (otherwise would not 2010 have shown a marked dip in temps???) The forces now unleashed By AGW are in the ascendant and so their forcing will grow stronger over the coming decades. At the same time PDO will fade to neutral and swing positive (with the associated uptick in El-Nino's). Over the same period we expect the ozone hole over Antarctica to heal some more and that the 'Dirty pollution' from Indo-China will be cleaned up allowing higher levels of TSI at the surface. No matter what the sun does the planet's on-board forcings will ramp up warming. We had better just be thankful of any mitigation your promise of low solar may offer us?

Thanks to Chris Reynolds over on the Sea ice Forum for the animation but it highlights both the opening up of Beaufort but also the rift along the Siberian Coast and the Flow moveing toward Fram. Keep and eye on both Barrentsz and Greenland sea ice extents as it looks like they are about to rise as the ice flows out into the Atlantic.

I do not think that most folk are a fickle as you would paint them 4? The U.S. climate disasters of last year swung the balance of folk who believed man was altering the climate and , come this summer, we will have another swathe of extreme climate events that will convince a whole lot more folk of what is now occuring. I know i mourned Politic's seizure of the climate issues we face as I knew full well how a 'piliticised' debate would end up. As it is it has cost us 20yrs of serious discussion and condideration and for what? Even a President elect dare not mention climate even after his Nation is stung for Billions by 'climate catastrophes'. It does not matter what you or I think. Mother N. will do what mother N. will and a.t.m. she has a new balancing act on her hands. She will do her best to re-balance her books no matter what impacts it will have on us all. I wish we could stop talking about whether a journey is occurring or not as we are already at our first destination.

It will be doubly sad to see the Antarctic resume it's rapid warming both for the planet and for Keith! It will be an interesting re-freeze this year though, let us see if the lessening of the ozone hole has had an impact on the circulation down there and how the early winter storms will fare this year? Most of the 'extension' of the ice bringing a high min was on the ouside of Weddell.....We saw what became of 1 million sq km of ice there, over a 3 day period, around ice max 3 or 4 years ago? Should the eqinocturnals throw in a big storm in that direction we will see a sudden resumption in ice loss?

Then you are clearly not reading my posts jonboy? I am concerned greatly by natures own responses to the forcings so far and have , on numerous occasions asked folk to forget the 'how we got here' side of things and focus on 'here'. If we have a grasp of our changing climate ,over the ages, then we might also see where the level of change we see today must surely be taking us? To me 'cooling' is well out of the question no matter what the Sun does (within the parameters of variance we are aware of). The thing that does peturb me is the nonsense I see posted about 'natural cycles' when we are so clearly beyond any such cycle that we have measured throughout all of our paleo climatic records. I would agree that sudden cooling would pose far more threats to the developed world than slow warming would but I fear that we may see a resumption of the type of rapid warming we witnessed through the 80's and that before the 'natural cycles' turn positive and exacerbate things further.

Almost like watching Larson collapse? Keep an eye on Wokingham Weather as they seem to have a piccie a day over Beaufort? Yestedays shows the cracks you highlight quite well esp. the expansion to across the entrance of the NW Passage deep channel. I remember the opening of the passage was hindered by ice flowing across the entrance so I'm wondering if this break up has ensured we do not see such this year? When I read around the breakup ~I keep coming across just how exceptional it is bringing the earliest other date for such back 40 days (at least)!!! Though i have not seen it is reported to now have reached Wranggel island? That is all the way across the Basin from Alaska to Siberia!!! I think the folk expecting an ice 'rebound' after last years record min may have a further shock awaiting them???

And this is where my issue arise Pete. without wishing to quash anybody's right to free speech it would be nice to see a discussion thats was as weighted as our science is? Billy Knownowt comes here to pick the communities brains (and save him the trouble of having to find out for himself) to see every post explaining the current understanding countered by a post claiming that this understanding is wrong or flawed or challenged by some erstwhile unbeknown scientific phenomena. Billy knownowt goes away thinking that (excuse the pun) everything is still up in the air so no need to worry about it. It , without becoming all conspiritorial, it seems unfair that a load of non-media savy Geeks find themselves up against paid media savy denialist sites who do nothing other than pick holes and cast doubts (i.e. do not 'do' science themselves but merely piggy back on anything , however disproven, that fits their agenda) and throw the media spotlight on folk who are doing science (or trying to when not fighting to save their own reputations) and expect them to compete as though on a level playing field......there are so many Homer J's out there that T.V. soundbites will always win out until disaster hit them head on..and gives them rise to think on all that 'science' that they happily dismissed in favour of the "Carry on ,as you are ,all's well ,nothing to see here" message.

Sadly the Algal blooms do not seem to be helping that much? Recent papers seem to suggest that once the ice melts the blooms descend into the depths were they are consumed by bacteria creating oxygen free zones of dead sea floor? For those folk who think the changes up there are not impacting the eco-system I think they need to read these papers and go figure what that means to the life in the basin?? Hi BFTV! With all the shattered ice now mobile I still wonder at an extent max as floes shift out of the basin at both the Atlantic and Pacific sides? I know we still have some very cold temps there so the fissures will ice over but it may well lead to folk ,yet again, being lulled into a false sense of security? How do you personally see this well fragmented pack responding to the start of melt season? Could it be a blessing in that large expanses of melt water flooded ice cannot appear over ice well fragmented? (and not contiguous?) or does it just mean an increase in surface area to mass and so an even more rapid melt out?

I suppose this is why it all becomes so exasperating when you try and discuss the impacts we are now measuring with folk who instantly dismiss those measures and then try and push impacts that are not currently able to be measured (in any meaningful way) that might impact the way the suns output manifest here. Lurkers may see this as some kind of doubt of what we know and go no further with their questioning> We know the extra energy that the albedo flip is both generating and liberating into the climate system. This is energy already here (or able to be 'here' now the surface is open to absorbing it) so the 'solar' argument seems to fail at the first hurdle? No matter what mitigation solar varience or cosmic rays may place on the amount of energy at the surface when you suddenly switch from reflecting 90% of that energy to accepting 90% of that energy we see an net 'increase' in that energy??? However mitigating the soalr/cosmic rays may be the ice has melted and so the energy equation that existed prior to that melt is now in imbalance due to the lack of ice to spend the energy on. Basically we have a huge shunt of energy entering into the climate system and no matter how Mother Nature tries to negate this change some of that 'extra' is getting through, enough in fact to cause the ice issue to be feeding back onto itself and losing ever more ice volume and melting ever more snow. I believe the results of such 'alterations' are currently manifest in the Arctic basin with the thin, weak ice shattered by the tidal forces of the Full moon and the circulation of the atmosphere. Before the ice was so impacted this kind of basin wide event could not occur.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/26/global-warming-planetary-airflow-extreme-weather-us-eu Low Arctic ice weirding our weather? Fancy that! Looking at the current 'Arctic Weirding', with huge areas shattered by the full moon tides, I have to wonder how fast this ice will melt out now come springs warmth? I think folk should now be keeping more of an eye on how fast the bulk of the ice melts that waiting for the min? Surely it is how long water is open over peak insolation that approaching autumn equinox?

http://www.woksat.in...1408-b-arc.html Full moon tide's done a number in Beaufort then? I wonder just how early we'll see open water there this year? http://www.woksat.info/etcvb26/vb26-1217-i-grn-n.html I tend to think that this disruption and the mess over on Fram side of things (above) does not bode well for the upcoming season?

But Mr Scrooge? There are many in desperate need of our help for without they would surely die? Well they'd better get on and die then and decrease the surplus population...... Why the Dickens would things have changed??? Anyhow , 'Abrupt warming'. It's very nature makes it a lot easier for us to decide whether or not it is occuring the bigger question is have we manged to see enough buttons pushed to cause such to ocurr over this past 7 years? I'm sure that there are folk out there willing to crunch the numbers (and bring us a hard number of the type of energy surplus we have seen since 07') but just mulling what has occurred over that period surely must have each of us wondering what this extra energy can do to our climate? We've all seen the images of Cumulonimbus building over oil rig burn off towers or over Power station cooling towers so we know small local inputs will bring us an impact if conditions favour? Well the extra energy we are talking about is surely much more than a binch of cooling towers or a lone gas flare? Are these energies partly feeding back into the system making larger amounts of extra energy available the next time around the loop? We have recently seen concerns about the permafrosts bring us a number not to exceded lest we begin the melt down of all the northern permafrosts. We have already eaten 0.8c into that figure and , should it prove correct, only have 0.7c of warming left until we hit problems that will feedback into the climate system (as I said 5 years or more ago this solves the Denialist issue as all the feedbacks are 'natural' in nature, just driven into operation by mankind, so it swapa from AGW to NGW) I am concerned that the changes we have wrought willl have no problem in driving change enough to bring us rapidly towards that 0.7c warming even if we meet our carbon targets.

But each one of those lives is like you or I? would you feel as cocky if it was you and L.G. who knew they were the ones with 3 months left (or our children/family/loved ones). It is that 'humanity' that makes it hard for me to embrace such losses....worry about the future? I think if you have a 'spirit' (believe that humans can be a 'spiritual' soul and not just blood and guts') then you think beyond your 'personal' life experience in favour of your own spiritual growth over your lifetime? If you are more sold on existentialism then it is all about 'this lifetimes' experience and so will tend to be more focused on 'oneself', and that 'experience', than with troubling yourself with other folks woes (no wish to empathise with such a dire existence as it does not bring me 'gain' in my struggle for a 'nice' life experience only pain and upset?) ? The pragmatist in me says that man, in such numbers, time is sure to be short-lived (as any other 'swarm' in nature) and , one way or another, nature will regain Her 'balance'. Be it natural disaster or human driven disaster our time of growth appears limited?

I have wondered about all of this 'extension' of the N.A.D. It seems common sense to me that if you warm the water the current runs through it'll be able to conserve heat and so run further? i'm sure ice free conditions do show a warm anom where ice once was but the areas in question have seen many recent winters under low ice conditions ( upping the average temps?) so maybe the current can also run longer? I still think we'll find that the 'Laptev Bite' is evidence of late summer N.A.D. extension?

Thing is BFTV the only time I've heard such is from deniers explaining to me what I believe?(or have claimed). It would not surprise me to find the fossil fuel lobby funding such sites as well?

again I think folk would care more if they fully understood the dangers and that , instead of being something for our grand-kids to deal with, the dangers are becoming ever more manifest right now? i await this summer in the hope that my area will not fall foul to the type of flooding that we have seen recently as many of the traders have declared that they cannot continue if they face another hit (and many residents are still not 'straight' after being impacted last June/July). Both types of event ,River flooding due to stalled weather patterns and flash flooding due to enhanced capacity of the air to hold moisture and stalled out storms sitting over a small geographical area, are both linked with current levels of AGW impacts. If low ice levels played any role in this then what will last years record losses have added into such impacts With continued food price hikes due to multiyear crop reductions due to drought /flooding/heatwaves impacting major production areas and 'weather events' impacting daily living how can folk fail to care? A max of 4 weeks before we are back into melt season and ,last year, this signaled the beginning of the northern hemisphere's issues. Let us hope it does not prove so this year?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=siberian-caves-reveal-permafrost-thaw Thought I'd better stick this in here too! Appears to imply that a less than 1.5c warming is the only 'safe' course of action for the planet? Anyone think we'll stay below 1.5c?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=siberian-caves-reveal-permafrost-thaw This would seem to suggest that a 1.5c rise, from pre-industrial levels, is the threshold where we lose our permafrost (and the massive GHG forcing this unleashes) making a bit of a mockery of the 2c 'safe' limit? Seeing as we are already at 0.8c above pre-industrial levels that gives us 0.7c until we reach that point. My concerns about an 'abrupt warming', even 1/10th the potency of past ones, would place us there in less than a decade. I do hope I am very wrong in my understanding of how the planet must respond to both albedo flip and GHG forcings as the forcings a permafrost meltdown unleashes puts us way above the IPCC worse case scenario.

I very much doubt that I would have the eloquence to adequately portray what has driven my need to understand where we were headed over the years that went into forming my current opinion and , as I view things today, I do not think we have the time that you envisage to see the blossoming of folks opinions? There is only 1 reality and the way we perceive that reality is what you appear interested in? The reality will leave folk in no doubt that something major is now occurring in our world (and not 'subtle changes taking place over decades) and that it's 'cause' is new and novel (outside our paleo climate's lessons). Being a weather site the rapid and extreme changes to our weather will surely lead folk to wonder as to causality? If last years low ice has a similar impact to the 07' event then by September we will see a lot more folk quite happy to listen to the science. Though far from 'settled' it provides us all with enough to see that it's direction is sound and that the beliefs of the majority of folk engaged in the science are worthy of noting.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php A little heads up for Nevens new dedicated Forum. If you want to read the input of many of the best minds in the blogsphere (IMHO) across the topics concerning the Arctic then pop over and have a read.

Hi KeithL! I think that you are getting close to a point that would demand you alter your thinking about the ice loss that we are seeing? As a point of reference what would you need to see within the yearly Arctic cycle to have you understand the changes as 'novel'?

Hi Be cause! Yup! looks like an exciting melt season indeed? After 07' we all wondered how the year following could possibly beat it (it being a 'perfect storm' year) but this time we did not need any 'special weather' to achieve the record low we saw. With record low ice volume at present I have to wonder how we can avoid dropping to a similar low this year? I will be looking for extensive 'blue ice' as large meltwater lakes appear over the flat FY ice fields (and maybe glimpses of extensive algal blooms under the thin ice). I think that both these events will speed up melt out dates for the younger ice leaving a lot of open water under the sun from July onward. I expect to see early melt out of the Greenland snow pack and a rapid reduction of the albedo around the lower levels of the Greenland Ice Sheet. I also expect to see another record outflow year from the Drain glaciers (remember the McKenzie river video of the floods sweeping away the digger off the bridge there?). I even suspect that we will see more high surface melt days through July/Aug.

http://www.woksat.info/etcvb19/vb19-1151-f-grn-n.html Pretty messed up from Pole to Fram now. really shows how thin the ice is. I remember putting up a spring image (mid march or later) in the mid noughties showing a well broken pack only to be told by one of our regulars that it always looked like that (which it certainly never did esp in the late 90's) at winters end. I'm waiting to see if I get the same today!!!