Earthshine

Western Europe in the furnace. Seriously impressive temperatures for Western areas in particular. I think the Cardiff record is 34°C (August 1990 I think?) which could be under threat next week.

If so much energy stored in the Mediterranean (SST in some places 30°C+) would help keep continental Europe warm well into autumn. How much influence we get is anyone's guess, however autumn 2006 stayed warm after that exceptional summer.

Potentially 6 or more days in a row of 30°C here, pretty exceptional! Didn't get to that during the 2020 August heatwave which was rather cloudy at times!

Yep and I think my favourite part is the bags of sunshine. Often hot weather from plumes means lots of cloud in the west. Long drawn easterly, high pressure resulting in adiabatic heating and very little moisture =

Can't wait to start the cold haters club in the next few months. Winter is a miserable time for me and many others

Potential for extremely high temperatures in the SW/W England and Wales. 34°C for Cardiff is very, very unusual. Reaching 30°C is often a struggle.

I think this year was even more exacerbated by the extremely dry soils. France is in a bad shape right now and it means that very little energy is sucked out out these plumes. I think we will probably see more exceptionally warm temperatures in the weeks to come if the dry theme continues.

100°F in two consecutive months? To be honest with nearly two decades of warming after 2003 we shouldn't be surprised. The ceiling of possible temperatures has increased dramatically and it is now only just being realised. We were lucky up to now to only exceed the highest recorded temperature by 0.2°C in 2019.

Sunny and currently 15°C after a low of 4.9°C.

Yep of course, never said it was likely. But each ensemble run is theoretically a plausible outcome. Of course the physics isn't perfect, but it's pretty good. Ensemble forecasting is just one part of the story, variational methods are of course a major part too and also the use of deterministic runs, etc.

5 days of 40°C+. Probably the most extreme ensemble run we've ever seen for the UK.

Not often you see a forecast like this for my location. Even during classic summers we struggled to get above 30°C, we've already had 34°C back in July and many days above 26°C. We also had the highest June temperature since 1976. So far this summer has been seriously impressive for heat!

In the meantime, who ordered the 100°F

Sneak peak at December just for fun... continuing the dry theme

Not really much sign of a breakdown. Temperatures remaining above average throughout.

Fabulous outlook here in the SW. Had a bit of rain recently (not sure if enough for the soils mind you!) and temperatures suggested to be perhaps close to 30C in the SW next week. Staying warm for the forseeable!

August 2022 currently running with a mean of 20.1C. Minimum CET an impressive 4.5C above average at 15.9C! Will come down over the next few days with some cool nights forecast. Don't expect the maximum CET to drop too much before the warmer spell next week.

Yep very warm for a maritime airmass. Both night and day temperatures above average here with plenty of sunshine!

Looking good pdf2pdf-gorax-green-000-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-piRWFF.pdf

Some more obscenely hot runs showing up. Remember that this year is very different to most in that the soils are very parched, particularly in the SE. Very little energy is sucked out of these hot plumes now allowing us to fully realise the extent of the heat. With another August 2003 pattern and 19 years of further climate change I wouldn't be surprised to see close to 40°C. We genuinely do not know what is possible in the UK anymore. The 40°C we saw a few weeks back was realised before peak heating (4pm ish) so if that cold front was delayed by a few more hours it could have perhaps been even hotter.

Reminds me of doing the west highland way in Scotland a few years back. Few things better than a proper pint in a cosy pub with the rain outside. I'd say I do like variety with my weather, depends on what mood I'm in! Yep that bright sunshine and basically wearing flip flops 24/7

My dream is to live somewhere in Spain, love those warm summer evenings with a glass of wine hearing people out and about with music playing. Ah what a life!

Even October can bring some very pleasant days, last year in Exeter we had lots of foggy mornings followed by sunshine and 18-20C temperatures - pretty fab if you ask me! Also like a sunny and frosty morning (although nothing beats a warm summer morning sipping coffee at the local cafe!)

Definitely not underated here on Netweather! I only suggested it may be underrated after the Met Office poll for wettest July on record, I was surprised by the majority vote for July 2013 at the time (although people may be thinking of 2012).

Maximum CET an impressive 23.4°C (10th highest on record). Even more impressive is that the maximum CET anomaly for Jan-July has been 2.43°C above average (15.13°C compared to normal 12.7°C).