Earthshine

Interestingly enough, May 2018 brought one the most incredible thunderstorms I've seen in years. Overnight the sky was like a disco, completely ablaze with electricity. Although I agree on the summers themselves in recent years have been lacking.

The Sun is a stable star. During the 11-year solar cycle, the solar output varies by around 0.1%. Compare this to the 6% difference in solar insolation during a single year (Earth has an eccentric orbit), the influence from the solar cycle is around 1.7% of this. It's a tiny amount. Sure, it can influence large scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere (great chance of northern blocking in winter). However, to suggest the Sun has boosted Earth's temperature by over 1C in under a lifetime is ridiculous. If this were the case the Sun's output would have to wildly fluctuate on tiny timescales.

Ready for hot weather now. Last summer feels like a long time ago and I'm praying for a repeat (preferably not ending in August).

12.9°C!

Here's my ideal summer : June: Generally a warm and quiet month. Temperatures around 20-23°C in the south and 18-21°C in the north. Cool nights for the start of the month and generally dry (with the exception of some rain in the far northwest). July: Everything kicks off with a region of low pressure around the south of the UK with some warm or very warm air entrenched in it. Temperatures generally 24-30°C in the south and 20-26°C in the north. However, the highlight of the month will be the thunderstorms. Huge cells developing around France and then being dragged up on a very warm and humid south/south-easterly breeze. Some flash flooding possible and everything appearing incredibly lush and green thanks to the rain (in stark contrast to last July). Some very high temperatures (i.e. 35°C+) where we see a blowtorch-type Spanish plume. August: Hottest August on record with the first 20°C CET on record, ending a run of rather mediocre Augusts. Generally hot and dry, with the first 40°C recorded in the UK in the first week of the month. We will also see the highest night-time minimum temperature ever recorded, with a minimum of 25.4°C recorded in London. Temperatures 25-34°C in the south and 20-28°C in the north. After a very hot start, there is a thundery breakdown mid-month (but still remaining warm). However high pressure is never far and a huge blocking high over central Europe re-establishes itself, pumping some incredibly hot air out of North Africa.

Canada sounds pretty terrible climate wise, especially in winter. Can you imagine getting frostbite 15 minutes after walking outside in winter? Absolutely desolate, much rather the more temperature climate here in the UK.

How on earth people can enjoy cold and rainy weather is beyond me. What do people actually do outdoors when it's raining and cold? I can understand people not wanting blazingly hot sunshine for weeks on end but to want cold and wet weather, I struggle to understand.

What an absolutely stunning few days it's been. Really good vibes and it's hard not to be in a good mood with such perfect weather. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the cooler weather is just a brief non-event before high pressure and sunshine returns.

Any ideas on what (if any) impacts warm SST around the UK will have?

I'm confident we'll be on the milder side of average for the rest of the month. Seems the region of high pressure to our east is robust and stable. Will be interesting to see just how much we deviate from average this month despite a rather cool start.

Evidence suggests humans are by far the main driver for climate change. Until new evidence arises that suggests the contrary we can be quite certain that humans are causing climate change. Frankly the "evidence" provided by climate change deniers is rubbish and their beliefs are just that, beliefs (i.e. not grounded in reality). You can believe what you want, but I have a problem when people start conspiracy theories and claim they are correct. It's rather an insult to those who have dedicated their lives to climate science by stating they are completely wrong with no evidence to back up the claim.

25.2°C

Hi Gray-Wolf! Snowball effect underway then. Had a quick read of the article and I had no idea nitrous oxide has yet another threat. The problem is that since very few people live in the Arctic the full impacts of global warming aren't being felt by most of us (yet). I would not be surprised if the 2020s will be the warmest decade on record. Even now we are seeing disastrously low Arctic sea ice extents.

Climate change denial only exists because people want to deny responsibility for the destruction of the environment. Sure, the Earth may have been warmer in the past. However, the planet has warmed by 1C within a LIFETIME! That's almost unprecedented in Earth's history! You'd have to be a madman to deny global CO2 concentrations have increased. Ocean acidification is another clear example of this. It's basic physics that CO2, CH4, etc. are radiatively active gases. It astounds me that people who frankly have very little education on atmospheric physics can discount scientists who have dedicated their lives studying it.

How on earth is cooler weather "looking good" ? It's hardly going to be hot over the weekend...

I'd even go as far as saying September is a summer month (despite being meteorological autumn). Sun is still quite strong and temperatures are generally similar to that of June.

Is my 10.5C (I think) prediction for the April CET not out of the question then? I can dream! In the meantime just look at how we will see warm air being pumped into the Arctic. ecm500 (1).webp

Currently running at 7.9C for the April mean at my station. Looks like next week may very well bump that a couple of degrees especially if the milder weather is sustained!

I have the same! Can be very painful especially in windy, cold weather. Unlike the majority, I can also sleep comfortably in temperatures 30C+ (indoor temperature that is). Perfect day of weather for me would be the following: Morning: 15-20C and clear blue skies. Calm and the birds are singing. Afternoon: Rising to 30-36C, a few cumulus clouds to give a little shelter from direct sunlight. Larger cumulus congestus clouds forming too in the humid air and instability. Evening: Cooling off to 20-25C. Large thunderstorms breaking out and epic lightning shows. Overnight: No cooler than 15C. Clear skies allowing for some astrophotography!

Yeah but the suggestion is still there we will get a continental feed of air is it not?

Suggesting mid-70s! Proper BBQ weather that is. Do you expect we'll see quite large diurnals with that set-up (i.e. flow off the continent)?

Opposite here in the west. Today was sparkling sunshine and despite being only 12-13C it feels very warm in the strong sunshine. Not a cloud in the sky and fairly calm too today. Slightly more cloud into the weekend but still not bad!

Looks brilliant! Been fairly sunny here the last few days but that wind is biting! Nice to see something a little more benign for Easter!

Um, I'm pretty sure the average April high is around 12°C when in Jan/Feb it's more like 6°C?

Think I'm going to be way, WAY off the mark with my CET predication for this month. Looks set to get even colder over the weekend before a (rather slow) trend back towards average.