WinterOf47

Rain All Night i really hope yaaay! Wins, as the GFS op runs have been showing Noooo!

TillyS Model watching here has been a very depressing experience this year, and yes, most years. Having lived in Canada for 7 years though, with 70 centigrade difference between summer highs and winter lows, occasionally the weather can be a bit too real…prefer it to the Meh here though. Was an avid model watcher in Canada as something interesting was never far away. Here it sometimes feel like a cut and paste of any other week. The models for the back end of the month into Easter here are looking increasingly like an abysmal winter is going to be followed by a really horrid early spring. If we get an immovable northern block it will really finish me off.

Crackerjac The timing is everything. Overnight and early morning after a cold first half of the night we can get healthy accumulations into early April (can remember 10cms in Brighton April 4th 2008 - gone by early afternoon) but daytime settling snow becomes harder as we progress into March unless we are under the influence of a genuine BFTE scenario and a frozen Europe. Next weekend is definitely looking interesting, just want to see the Scandi high pivot in a way that draws air more directly from Russia rather than going via South east Europe. If that happens then the South could see snow if a low pushes up against the cold or drifts across on the Easterly flow. As a photographer, late snow - as in March snow before the change to BST - is perfect as you can get up early and get out with the camera before everyone else and there is enough light to get beautiful images.

I am wondering how much of this trend we are seeing for a mid Atlantic High, possibly switching to a brief GH is due to the brief SSW we had recently. Has that done just enough to mess up what looked like an endless Iberian high? The GEFS and OP runs are both holding lots of hope for some activity from 10 days time as others have said, and that really is the last window for some proper lasting winter weather, short of a BFTE. For the movement I am going to enjoy the sun and warmth though.

I am quite liking the models trend of Iberian or Azores high. The GEFS below is for 2 weeks time.That is quite strong for so far out, so I am feeling that any cold is very unlikely before mid Feb. Mildish and often dry away from the North West. I love it. I went for a walk into our village this afternoon and the mild air felt lovely. I wasn’t woken up by my cold nose last night for the first time in a while. There is something to be said for mild dry weather. I am happy for the models to keep this up.

So they are saying an SSW was due to occur yesterday, but this has not yet been confirmed from what I am reading in other posts. Given the lack of signposting wouldn’t this be an SSSW a super sudden SW! Could be good news for early to mid Feb.

The temp anomalies for later in the month are really getting toasty. I would be very happy if they weren’t accompanied by cloudy gloom. If an Azores or Iberian high sets up with a less cloudy flow, I would be well pleased…beats spending days agonising over whether it will or won’t snow.

If only we could freeze the 00Z GFS OP run. 20 cms for the South coast. December 2022 the GFS nailed the snow for the South East long before the other models. Last weekend it was showing a feint streamer for the South East days before it happened. It has predicted the breakdown of this cold spell better than the other models. I am keeping my fingers crossed this will materliase. It is all about timing. With marginal temps in the day, we would need the majority to fall after 6pm for there to be big totals. Back in 1991 we had a low pressure trundle down from the North. It rained and sleeted all afternoon. The forecast was for more of the same overnight, but then turned to heavy snow after dark and dumped 10 inches on us. If the charts stay like this, then this is a definite possibility. Still a lot can change, and going to be a very nervy few days for southern snow lovers.

True. To be fair, where I lived in Barrie Canada, we would see charts like this all the time, and it was only 24 hours out that the GFS and Euro would align and we would have a good idea. Even then 20-30km was the difference between being buried in 40 cms of white stuff and cold rain, or worse - ice. This could still deliver for the south of the UK, but I doubt we will see a shift of more than 100 miles this near.

But they won’t learn. I grew up in this country as a frustrated snow lover believing excited BBC weather presenters that would predict snow for it to never materialise. It is this kind of “close but no cigar” scenario in the GFS below that wound me round the bend until I left this country and moved to the snow belt in Canada as a 40 year old. After 7 years of shovelling 2.5m a year, I am over my frustration, and can look at this chart which grazes my back garden and not feel like God hates me

It certainly is a waste of time, whether it snows or not! I am still hopeful of a blast along the south coast. it may be my last winter in the Northern hemisphere, and while I had my fill of snow after living in canada, I would love to go out with a bang. 5-10cms was on the OP GFS…i would settle for that, then check in my snow boots, snow shovels and head to kiwi land.

Agreed. At least the GFS is now on board with the cold till late next week, so that is pretty much set in stone with all models aligned. Like others have said, there will be opportunities for “regional scale events” to develop from as little as 48 hours out on the models. Anyone remember last weekend for instance? No one was expecting anything till Saturday even, and many in the South had a few cms on Sunday. Also, the low only needs to track 100 miles further north and the South will get 15 cms.

Are we seeing a trend for the low moving South? As people have mentioned many times before, this is common as the event comes into range. Another hundred miles and South of the M4 would get blasted. Starting to look as though a significant proportion of the population will get 6-10 inches next week from one of the lows…just who exactly is the question. Huge disruption on the roads and rail, and lots of fun for kids and snow lovers!

Not from down here. guess we’ll get our revenge in July

In general, if one of the main models is showing a return to the kind of rubbish weather that we are used to, i.e. the usual MO for this windy rainswept land, rather than Narnia, then I don’t think it is being pessimistic to suspect that it may be on to something. It will be interesting to see which set of models cave. I suspect that it will end up being a fudge with some heavy wet snow for the Midlands, with decent falls for the North for a day or so early next week, then rain and wind for all but the Shetlands. The GFS is the only model showing “normal” UK winter weather.