AtlanticFlamethrower
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Posts posted by AtlanticFlamethrower
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11.6C
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BTW does anyone know if there is online data for moon's distance from the Earth for the past 100 years? I want to do a correlation with large Earthquakes. I've got the data for that, just need the moon data. Anyone can double-check Supermoon claims themselves.
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So why hasn't one nuclear expert come out and said this then? Just a thought.
They have (below). The government is covering-up for political reasons, which they can do for a while as long as the wind blows out to sea. The Russians tried to cover-up Chernobyl.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Meltdown Caused Nuke Plant Explosion: Safety Body
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said Saturday afternoon the explosion at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant could only have been caused by a meltdown of the reactor core.
The same day, Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), which runs the plant, began to flood the damaged reactor with seawater to cool it down, resorting to measures that could rust the reactor and force the utility to scrap it.
Cesium and iodine, by-products of nuclear fission, were detected around the plant, which would make the explosion the worst accident in the roughly 50-year history of Japanese nuclear power generation.
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Good question - in a pressurised water reactor, the water itself isn't just a coolant in the traditional way, it's the reactor's primary neutron inhibitor - it regulates the speed at which the fuel reacts - the control mechanisms are either control rods (usually of boron) or a fluid of boron injected into the coolant - boron is also a thermal neutron inhibitor. With no water there's nothing regulating the nuclear reaction as well as nothing for boron control rods to sit in. As you say, things go out-of-control very quickly in these circumstances - a matter of minutes. I'd be astonished if at least one of the reactors at Fukushima didn't suffer a partial fuel melt. As for the intactness of the reactor itself - no doubt we'll find out soon enough.
Look at this!
If that's not a total meltdown 3000 ft mushroom cloud tell me what is. That's not superficial damage, that's the worst it gets.
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This is what a nuclear meltdown of a reactor looks like
Just "blowing off a bit of steam", huh?
The lower than would be expected levels of radioactive caesium and iodine (which have been detected) is because the reactors are right on the pacific shoreline and the wind is going out to the big wide ocean.
The official explanation won't last long if the wind turns direction though.
Don't want any aftershocks or tsunamis to further endanger the brave technicians trying to cool the remaining four reactors at Fukushima.
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No, no and thrice no (and he would, wouldn't he).
Far stronger solar flares have not occurred at the same time (more or less) as earthquakes in such a pattern as to make any link provable (e.g. was there a major earthquake around the time of the flare in March 1989 that blacked out much of eastern Canada and the north-eastern US?). The difference between the pull of gravity between the Earth and Moon next week because of the closer than normal "supermoon" (what idiot came up with that term?) is insignificant compared to the total gravitational pull. Tectonic activity on the Earth is quite sufficient to account for whatever earthquakes we have without nonsense self-publicising pseudo-science.
Lunar and solar effects do not preclude plate tectonics. Nobody's claiming that. What is claimed is there is some affect, that plate tectonic tipping points could be "tipped" by external triggers, and that this is shown in the statistics (lunar and solar).
An analogy could be someone shouting and causing an avalanche. The person who shouted didn't put the snow there and make it likely to fall, but the act of shouting was the trigger of the avalanche event.
BTW - as per my edit, Piers Corbyn didn't say anything about HAARP.
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Was the Earthquake triggered by HAARP (timed with Supermoon and solar flare - Piers Corbyn reckons so, that is the moon and solar, not the HAARP)?
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Okay, this probably sounds dumb. Could you stop the reactor by dropping a large bomb on it?
What would be more scary than this? The other four reactors next to it, popping one by one.
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Nuclear fallout map
http://www.youtube.com/user/unclewooly#p/u/1/PcWTIUKWn34
Massive Chernobyl event underway.
Get this news out to as many Americans and Canadians as possible. Potassium iodide is taken as a defense against some forms of radiation poisoning.
Media has been caught in a contradiction so could be in the process of a cover up until the plant is under-control. It's worrying that it's not yet under control.
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6.3C
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Chaos theory ulimately was a step forward in freeing us of the dictatorship of God, of revelaed truth, of us being enslaved in some kind of deterministic universe, ruled by recurring patterns as if we were automatons without any concept of free-will.
So chaos theory is an essential part of your religious value system? Those appear to be moral, rather than scientific arguments against finding patterns out of chaos.
I know this is off topic; it's the end of the thread!
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Chaos theory should not be used as a convenient excuse not to look for patterns.
Although MB's forecast storm was way to the West of where he thought it would be he got the +ve NAO and strong storm near Britain bit right. Even knowing just that a month ahead can assist forecast.
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Thanks RJS and, Coast. RJS - is there any way you can simplify your analysis - or provide a simply paragraph summary? I can do correlations but when I read the thread in the evening my brain is often half-switched off and I can't give what you're saying the attention it warrants. Interesting that you think MB should keep at his method. Is there going to be another test date, I wonder?
Oh - MB's forecast might not have gone as precisely hoped but it's windy outside... for the first time for quite a while. It's not a Great Storm but it's a little bit spooky!
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This is GFS chart for Feb 4, 6am.
If that could come 12hr earlier and a little further south MB's Feb 3rd forecast might yet look accurate in detail, (as opposed to accurate in "NAO +ve pattern broadly correct", which is easier to do).
An even better chart for MB was on the 12z GEM
12am, Feb 4th.
Game back on?
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Looks like the winds are going to come from the wrong direction on 3rd of February - SWly - but NAO +ve is right and these other charts would be reasonably helpful to someone starting to think about making a long range forecast.
Not long before we know how the final correlations of RJS and MB stack up.
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The deep low on the 18z has shifted very slightly East, directly north of Scotland. It now has a double core. The lower core swings furthest South and East. This double core low solution might help MB get it further South and East.
Looking at 28 / 30 Jan Actual versus predicted, that's not bad if we are being uncharitable and assuming MB is making a complete guess, for his own amusement at our expense.
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12z ECM doesn't look a match-up at all. The big low stays West of Iceland and then goes NW. MB needs it East of Iceland, preferably going SE.
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Slightly better for MB? Red is where it needs to be.
Nothing to get excited about but the way the GFS modelled the 12z PV is quite different to the way it modelled it on the 06z (wasn't there a deep low following this low on the 06z), so there may be slow, subtle but significant changes in timing and position to come.
Not good enough but still enough to keep following the models.
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The low East of Iceland needs to trend further East by a couple of hundred miles and a little South for the forecast to come right. At the moment on GFS, it gets that far then buggers of North.
This doesn't require a major upgrade, but it definitely requires a small trend to move the low Eastwards whereas yesterday the trend was to move the low Westward, lowering the correlation with MB's target day February 3rd.
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The models have now moved away from MB's scenario for 3rd February. It's looking windy in the north but very zonal and Westerly. The charts are fairly unremarkable looking and would be a forecast failure were it to stay like this. Perhaps the GFS will trend back to the more MB-like solutions as we get closer to the date.
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You're all completely missing my point.
I'm not interested in criticising anyone's forecast, and I'm not going to make any forecasts myself. I want to engage in a proper scientific debate, which has to include an airing and discussion of the forecasting methods being used, not just the forecast outcomes.
You need to start a new thread for this.
'Forecasters' who will not discuss their methods have little credibility to me - regardless of the outcome of the forecast.
Anyone can roll a dice.
Pieman
Your point has been made. Can this be the last time?
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Here's the GFS 00z
I would say that if MB achieves correlations in the 0.3 to 0.7 range his next step should be to give a concise, no-mumbo-jumbo statement of method, and I would certainly like to see forecasts for energy peaks around 3-5 March, 19-21 March and 2-4 April that I could compare to theory I'm developing and then the model runs coming into those periods.
If MB accepts this challenge we should all - especially including those who know least about weather forecasting - have a go at drawing a map/give a precise synoptic forecast for this date.
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sorry, but i hope i'm not the only one who isnt very impressed with today's 'match up'.
and maybe next time, a bit less trumpet blowing and certainty of extremes will help the forecast ??
No... next time we'll have a control with one of MB's critics, Pieman, you, Steve Murr, independently come up with their own specific forecast. We'll see who's closest.
If it is all down to random chance, as you seem to think, you are all just as likely to get it right as MB. Or even more right.
Ed: MB will pick the date and will ask us for our forecasts before he posts his. I may even have a go myself
March CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
JACKONE,
You missed me
Quite close this month!